Realized P&L
+$10.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$12.3K
Hit rate
86.5%
Resolved
610
Trades
70,069
lifetime
Volume
$16.2M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$231
Open exposure
$1.02M
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-02
last 10-27 10:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 119 days
Categories
Other
62%
89%
+$73,477
Politics
27%
67%
-$10,872
Crypto
11%
62%
-$53,172
Tech
1%
92%
+$709
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 353 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +404,345 | $380,516 | 98¢ | $396.5K | +$15,945 | 10-26 23:51 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | No | +131,975 | $122,534 | 97¢ | $128.5K | +$5,944 | 10-26 01:27 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | No | +103,818 | $89,654 | 86¢ | $89.8K | +$148 | 10-24 15:37 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | No | +60,419 | $58,932 | 100¢ | $60.2K | +$1,275 | 10-27 05:52 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | +55,891 | $50,408 | 90¢ | $50.6K | +$173 | 10-26 14:30 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? | No | +39,998 | $37,949 | 94¢ | $37.4K | -$551 | 10-26 23:15 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +31,865 | $28,905 | 94¢ | $29.8K | +$889 | 10-21 12:27 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October? | No | +27,213 | $26,755 | 99¢ | $27.0K | +$282 | 10-24 18:25 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +26,728 | $36,390 | 96¢ | $25.7K | -$10,718 | 10-27 09:30 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +17,750 | $16,141 | 94¢ | $16.8K | +$633 | 10-22 13:13 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? | No | +14,180 | $13,723 | 99¢ | $14.0K | +$323 | 10-27 06:30 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? | No | +13,738 | $12,911 | 98¢ | $13.4K | +$539 | 10-21 18:54 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October? | No | +12,755 | $12,394 | 99¢ | $12.6K | +$189 | 10-26 14:53 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October? | No | +10,776 | $10,566 | 99¢ | $10.7K | +$124 | 10-26 20:59 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October? | No | +10,475 | $10,288 | 99¢ | $10.3K | +$35 | 10-27 00:56 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | +10,000 | $9,830 | 97¢ | $9.7K | -$105 | 10-11 09:36 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | No | +8,433 | $8,129 | 100¢ | $8.4K | +$275 | 10-21 19:45 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October? | No | +8,247 | $8,127 | 100¢ | $8.2K | +$99 | 10-25 13:39 | |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? | No | +8,374 | $7,925 | 98¢ | $8.2K | +$240 | 07-25 18:54 | |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | +7,029 | $6,681 | 96¢ | $6.8K | +$91 | 10-23 19:16 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +6,400 | $6,125 | 96¢ | $6.2K | +$25 | 10-23 11:18 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +6,401 | $6,070 | 92¢ | $5.9K | -$213 | 10-07 03:19 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +6,000 | $5,630 | 97¢ | $5.8K | +$163 | 08-21 11:45 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October? | No | +5,324 | $5,167 | 100¢ | $5.3K | +$137 | 10-26 01:09 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +5,375 | $5,291 | 94¢ | $5.0K | -$266 | 10-19 03:41 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,000 | $4,845 | 97¢ | $4.8K | -$2 | 10-08 19:26 | |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | No | +4,927 | $4,582 | 98¢ | $4.8K | +$221 | 10-04 23:59 | |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | -4,724 | -$590 | 98¢ | $-4648 | -$4,058 | 05-01 23:22 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +5,625 | $4,644 | 82¢ | $4.6K | -$3 | 10-27 10:40 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | +5,000 | $4,150 | 92¢ | $4.6K | +$475 | 10-07 09:22 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 3,368 | $987.9K | 720,680 | 312,600 | +408,080 | open | — | 10-26 23:51 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | 325 | $534.3K | 284,092 | 263,030 | +21,062 | No | +$6,469 | 09-22 17:52 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 575 | $372.7K | 166,811 | 209,320 | -42,509 | No | +$1,501 | 03-25 04:59 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148 | 125 | $347.3K | 193,100 | 159,613 | +33,487 | No | +$3,881 | 08-14 05:21 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 232 | $328.8K | 193,770 | 167,042 | +26,728 | open | — | 10-27 09:30 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | 222 | $313.6K | 92,923 | 223,861 | -130,938 | No | -$104 | 06-14 04:34 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | 262 | $300.9K | 232,720 | 100,745 | +131,975 | open | — | 10-26 01:27 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | 281 | $284.6K | 120,668 | 168,545 | -47,877 | No | +$2,937 | 06-27 21:45 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et | 3,759 | $255.3K | 344,851 | 74,978 | +269,873 | No | +$2,656 | 02-28 04:58 |
| will wti dip to 60 in august 2026 | 81 | $253.9K | 130,655 | 130,655 | +0 | No | +$4,468 | 08-30 20:39 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | 83 | $248.0K | 155,313 | 94,894 | +60,419 | open | — | 10-27 05:52 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 97 | $228.3K | 116,148 | 120,745 | -4,597 | Yes | +$1,149 | 03-11 18:21 |
| will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077 | 127 | $220.0K | 144,190 | 81,172 | +63,018 | No | +$2,919 | 09-28 02:14 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et | 2,216 | $216.1K | 200,902 | 87,826 | +113,076 | No | +$1,331 | 02-21 03:31 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | 13 | $210.9K | 212,584 | 0 | +212,584 | No | +$1,655 | 09-25 17:27 |
| will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352 | 257 | $202.5K | 136,500 | 69,589 | +66,912 | No | +$2,636 | 06-28 11:41 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et | 3,112 | $202.4K | 238,219 | 162,374 | +75,845 | Yes | -$128,960 | 02-28 07:52 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 19 2026 et | 1,912 | $193.6K | 177,224 | 68,573 | +108,651 | No | +$874 | 02-20 04:42 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 13 | $192.1K | 192,900 | 0 | +192,900 | No | +$779 | 04-01 09:00 |
| will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026 | 265 | $178.3K | 89,701 | 89,699 | +1 | No | +$669 | 07-25 06:20 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 26 2026 et | 2,231 | $169.9K | 273,166 | 95,477 | +177,689 | No | +$145 | 02-27 04:58 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 17 2026 et | 719 | $168.5K | 79,170 | 91,324 | -12,154 | No | +$359 | 02-18 04:58 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | 144 | $168.3K | 84,816 | 89,077 | -4,261 | No | +$1,186 | 06-18 01:54 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et | 1,497 | $164.6K | 176,289 | 47,605 | +128,684 | No | +$1,368 | 02-25 04:57 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | 168 | $162.8K | 108,876 | 59,488 | +49,387 | No | +$5,192 | 06-29 00:52 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 25 2026 et | 1,364 | $160.3K | 153,009 | 35,112 | +117,897 | No | +$2,207 | 02-25 22:25 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | 155 | $155.0K | 58,391 | 98,409 | -40,019 | No | +$657 | 06-22 00:51 |
| will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175 | 54 | $144.0K | 72,808 | 72,808 | +0 | No | +$1,323 | 07-31 01:54 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 18 2026 et | 1,516 | $140.8K | 128,938 | 20,790 | +108,148 | No | +$949 | 02-19 04:59 |
| will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026 | 31 | $132.8K | 67,079 | 67,079 | +0 | No | +$1,264 | 07-31 17:08 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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