Vigilant-School — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

91.3%

Resolved

760

Trades

8,599

lifetime

Volume

$47.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

29 positions

First seen

2026-06-03

last 10-28 21:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 77 days

Categories

Other

56% 85% -$11

Politics

35% 85% -$27

Tech

4% 78% -$15

Crypto

3% 95% +$3

Sports

2% 100% +$6

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (29) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	+2	$2	99¢	$2	+$0	06-12 17:37
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?	No	+3	$3	51¢	$2	-$1	06-18 12:41
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	+1	$1	78¢	$1	+$0	06-16 06:33
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No	+1	$1	95¢	$1	+$0	06-15 23:12
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	06-09 05:42
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	06-10 02:19
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	+1	$0	96¢	$1	+$1	06-23 06:16
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+1	$0	98¢	$1	+$1	06-21 19:58
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+1	$1	96¢	$1	+$0	06-18 00:31
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	06-11 08:57
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+1	$1	98¢	$1	+$0	06-22 16:19
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+1	$0	84¢	$1	+$0	06-16 10:55
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	+1	$0	99¢	$1	+$1	06-17 21:50
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+1	$0	97¢	$1	+$0	06-22 17:21
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+1	$0	99¢	$1	+$0	06-17 02:48
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+1	$0	95¢	$1	+$0	06-11 19:58
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	No	+0	$0	97¢	$0	+$0	06-17 07:02
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	06-23 04:30
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	06-18 11:00
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$1	06-15 07:42
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+0	$0	94¢	$0	+$0	06-22 18:17
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	No	+0	$0	95¢	$0	+$0	06-16 09:42
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	06-21 20:32
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	97¢	$0	+$0	06-16 19:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$1	94¢	$0	+$1	06-23 03:42
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	97¢	$0	+$0	07-02 05:36
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	+$0	06-24 11:02
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	+0	$0	96¢	$0	+$0	06-24 08:05
will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	No	+0	$0	96¢	$0	+$0	06-25 22:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	110	$654	372	372	+0	No	+$5	06-23 09:05
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	118	$625	326	326	+0	No	+$3	06-18 06:32
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	98	$597	312	312	+0	open	—	06-23 12:42
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	98	$536	303	302	+1	No	+$2	06-17 01:33
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	103	$500	279	279	+0	No	+$3	06-23 00:28
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	69	$473	266	264	+2	No	+$6	06-15 01:16
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	65	$438	238	238	+0	No	+$1	06-19 05:13
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	87	$436	242	242	+0	No	+$2	06-22 02:51
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	84	$376	199	198	+1	No	+$2	06-21 20:50
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	57	$372	220	219	+1	No	+$2	06-16 04:51
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?	57	$357	187	186	+0	No	+$3	06-12 22:53
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	47	$307	162	162	+0	open	—	06-20 15:09
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	54	$302	165	165	+0	No	+$1	06-22 21:56
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	59	$301	182	182	+0	No	+$3	06-23 08:09
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	49	$293	156	156	+0	No	+$1	06-19 03:42
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	45	$282	150	150	+0	No	+$1	06-16 18:00
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	41	$278	147	147	+0	No	+$1	06-19 05:59
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	42	$267	138	138	+0	open	—	06-15 07:42
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	43	$261	145	145	+0	Yes	$0	06-23 07:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	48	$260	167	167	+0	No	+$3	06-25 00:08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	38	$255	140	140	+0	No	+$1	06-15 06:33
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	32	$246	143	142	+1	No	+$2	06-17 23:21
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	41	$240	125	124	+1	No	+$1	06-22 20:53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	44	$225	122	121	+1	No	+$1	06-15 13:57
ebola case in the us by june 30	37	$220	128	128	+0	No	+$1	06-24 10:14
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	44	$218	119	119	+0	No	+$1	06-23 23:22
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	36	$218	115	114	+1	open	—	06-17 02:48
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	43	$218	141	140	+1	Yes	+$1	06-19 07:07
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	40	$210	108	108	+0	No	+$0	06-23 07:49
Iran leadership change by June 30?	34	$209	110	110	+0	No	+$1	06-15 07:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 21:04:08	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x75677e…
10-28 20:03:14	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7db6a0…
10-28 19:24:14	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x88941d…
10-28 19:04:16	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9993cb…
10-28 19:04:13	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x3a9693…
10-28 18:23:10	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xbd45b5…
10-28 16:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x149fe1…
10-28 07:20:07	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4976e0…
10-27 19:04:08	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x1ce39d…
10-27 18:16:11	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x2e37fc…
10-27 18:16:09	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x13af93…
10-27 18:05:08	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x80387a…
10-27 17:15:08	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x286e30…
10-26 22:54:24	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9940b2…
10-26 20:48:09	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xad084b…
10-26 20:09:05	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc5ed2e…
10-26 19:58:09	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x88c40c…
10-26 19:03:11	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xbcb4ed…
10-26 19:03:11	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x5b2ed1…
10-26 18:07:08	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xf06565…
10-26 17:27:11	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x977707…
10-24 19:02:30	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x151d2c…
10-24 16:02:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$4	0x5cfdfe…
10-23 08:31:12	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 23?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa15187…
10-23 01:54:23	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6fcbab…
10-22 23:24:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf77f0a…
10-22 19:09:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8ead32…
10-22 14:04:15	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe1c12f…
10-22 07:32:21	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf9ce94…
10-22 07:03:24	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x469fd2…
10-22 06:03:55	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x81bcdb…
10-22 06:00:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc10308…
10-22 05:26:09	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc39182…
10-22 04:30:29	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa4ee19…
10-22 03:06:29	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1865d0…
10-22 02:06:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6b0f60…
10-21 16:57:36	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc5c208…
10-21 14:51:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xca4830…
10-21 12:21:32	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or higher on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x364136…
10-21 10:52:23	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x107eea…
10-21 09:05:26	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1ac2ac…
10-21 08:05:29	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on October 21?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x1482cd…
10-21 07:40:15	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x486a8b…
10-21 07:05:12	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x84c43a…
10-21 06:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x16e4e0…
10-21 06:20:21	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 21?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xbc0c71…
10-21 06:20:21	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x99da15…
10-21 05:06:33	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1c7a37…
10-21 04:06:33	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x37b5ed…
10-21 04:06:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc89ede…
10-21 04:01:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa18c8f…
10-20 12:31:51	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 20?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x26f2e9…
10-20 09:01:35	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 20?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfdf9e2…
10-20 07:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 20?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x686063…
10-20 07:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 20?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x51641e…
10-20 05:16:57	Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x10d9ca…
10-20 05:16:56	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x5ce507…
10-20 05:16:56	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x01e009…
10-20 05:16:54	Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xfdf8db…
10-20 05:16:54	Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x652fe5…
10-20 05:16:53	Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x1f97a5…
10-14 14:13:30	Will the Democratic Party win the OH-08 House seat?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x8fcd36…
10-11 05:01:15	Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x692f46…
10-06 05:45:52	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xe6bc8e…
10-06 05:41:37	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x1d56ad…
09-06 11:41:34	Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdee46f…
09-01 11:59:03	Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x6807af…
08-29 09:11:15	ByteDance IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x664947…
08-21 23:22:07	Will the Republican Party win the MN-04 House seat?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xd70db7…
08-21 10:19:57	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0xb14e6b…
08-21 07:10:13	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xe46298…
08-20 18:00:46	Will the Republican Party win the PA-02 House seat?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x30c782…
08-16 01:56:31	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	18	96¢	$17	0xde0dbf…
08-13 08:20:21	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x3fd5f5…
08-06 21:44:06	Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xd57ce7…
08-05 12:14:41	Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?	No	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0xe9ed1b…
08-05 09:33:24	Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x80137e…
08-05 08:46:29	Deel IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x114709…
08-05 02:53:08	Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xe39c66…
08-04 23:33:41	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x9ed53e…
08-02 05:37:02	Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xcb00e2…
07-30 19:35:44	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x119fd0…
07-30 15:38:35	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	8	69¢	$5	0x82685d…
07-30 15:18:45	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0xa48225…
07-28 17:58:20	Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x2d16ff…
07-24 14:16:27	Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x4d40c3…
07-21 08:17:15	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xd534d4…
07-21 06:11:57	zcashs orchard pool confirmed exploited 20260605210804589	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x102759…
07-19 13:17:30	will russia enter serhiivka by july 31	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x54eb8d…
07-19 06:23:28	Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x833d61…
07-18 15:32:30	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x3a6529…
07-18 14:18:07	Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xacf13a…
07-17 21:37:37	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x6ce724…
07-16 19:11:17	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0x938317…
07-15 15:01:37	ostium fdv above 200m one day after launch	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xa80f7b…
07-15 00:12:22	Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xf46ff5…
07-15 00:12:22	Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0xae930c…
07-15 00:12:22	Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x99a32d…
07-14 20:52:10	Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xb0fdc1…
07-14 20:20:16	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x02f4d1…