Realized P&L
-$12.4K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.21K
Hit rate
91.1%
Resolved
7,057
Trades
35,740
lifetime
Volume
$4.59M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$129
Open exposure
$107.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-10 13:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 277 days
Categories
Other
90%
96%
-$11,188
Sports
5%
55%
+$28
Politics
4%
71%
-$101
Crypto
1%
93%
-$1,125
Tech
0%
100%
+$14
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 407 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | No | +31,873 | $28,304 | 98¢ | $31.3K | +$2,980 | 11-10 11:57 | |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | No | +15,136 | $14,740 | 98¢ | $14.9K | +$169 | 11-09 07:16 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | No | +8,583 | $8,302 | 99¢ | $8.5K | +$165 | 11-09 20:25 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | No | +7,187 | $7,027 | 99¢ | $7.1K | +$96 | 11-07 22:50 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +5,800 | $5,632 | 98¢ | $5.7K | +$44 | 11-09 20:26 | |
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | No | +4,889 | $4,794 | 99¢ | $4.8K | +$46 | 11-06 10:33 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? | No | +4,280 | $4,174 | 99¢ | $4.2K | +$46 | 11-07 03:12 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? | No | +3,853 | $3,559 | 98¢ | $3.8K | +$236 | 11-08 18:06 | |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | No | +2,565 | $2,473 | 99¢ | $2.5K | +$55 | 11-09 09:58 | |
| EU dissolves before 2027? | No | +2,443 | $2,394 | 99¢ | $2.4K | +$15 | 11-10 12:42 | |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | No | +2,240 | $2,181 | 97¢ | $2.2K | -$2 | 11-10 01:47 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +2,200 | $2,032 | 98¢ | $2.2K | +$118 | 11-09 21:28 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? | No | +2,053 | $1,727 | 96¢ | $2.0K | +$234 | 11-10 09:41 | |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027? | No | +1,990 | $1,957 | 99¢ | $2.0K | +$4 | 11-10 10:27 | |
| Obama federally charged before 2027? | No | +1,683 | $1,641 | 96¢ | $1.6K | -$28 | 11-10 02:05 | |
| Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,523 | $1,480 | 99¢ | $1.5K | +$25 | 11-09 04:18 | |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | +1,400 | $1,260 | 92¢ | $1.3K | +$21 | 11-06 17:17 | |
| Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30? | No | +1,177 | $1,140 | 100¢ | $1.2K | +$31 | 11-09 10:03 | |
| Obama arrested before 2027? | No | +1,094 | $1,169 | 99¢ | $1.1K | -$88 | 11-09 17:35 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026? | No | +1,100 | $1,065 | 98¢ | $1.1K | +$10 | 11-09 10:09 | |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | +832 | $792 | 97¢ | $811 | +$19 | 11-09 09:53 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? | No | +814 | $797 | 99¢ | $803 | +$6 | 11-03 19:04 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026? | No | +758 | $672 | 90¢ | $686 | +$14 | 11-09 20:36 | |
| New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? | No | +691 | $673 | 99¢ | $682 | +$9 | 11-09 04:03 | |
| Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027? | No | +703 | $635 | 95¢ | $668 | +$33 | 11-06 03:24 | |
| Plague case in US by December 31? | No | +682 | $645 | 97¢ | $664 | +$19 | 11-06 08:39 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on November 10? | No | +530 | $529 | 100¢ | $529 | +$1 | 11-10 13:42 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | No | +903 | $486 | 50¢ | $447 | -$39 | 11-09 07:24 | |
| Will Belarus win on 2026-11-12? | Yes | +400 | $348 | 86¢ | $346 | -$2 | 11-09 18:38 | |
| Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? | No | +300 | $323 | 99¢ | $296 | -$27 | 11-07 23:11 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 360 | $220.7K | 126,710 | 96,424 | +30,286 | Yes | -$56 | 11-04 08:37 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | 299 | $123.2K | 82,056 | 50,183 | +31,873 | open | — | 11-10 11:57 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | 258 | $70.2K | 37,823 | 33,423 | +4,400 | Yes | +$149 | 11-04 03:23 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | 98 | $34.1K | 18,800 | 16,600 | +2,200 | open | — | 11-09 21:28 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | 157 | $33.9K | 18,964 | 16,399 | +2,565 | open | — | 11-09 09:58 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? | 267 | $30.4K | 19,374 | 17,321 | +2,053 | open | — | 11-10 09:41 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? | 89 | $28.2K | 16,401 | 12,548 | +3,853 | open | — | 11-08 18:06 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | 118 | $23.9K | 16,558 | 7,975 | +8,583 | open | — | 11-09 20:25 |
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | 86 | $17.9K | 11,684 | 6,796 | +4,889 | open | — | 11-06 10:33 |
| Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? | 71 | $16.3K | 8,576 | 8,276 | +300 | open | — | 11-07 23:11 |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | 142 | $15.3K | 15,438 | 302 | +15,136 | open | — | 11-09 07:16 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? | 62 | $15.0K | 7,875 | 7,875 | +0 | open | — | 11-05 00:12 |
| Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-11-08? | 27 | $14.3K | 15,922 | 10,000 | +5,922 | Yes | +$802 | 11-08 18:43 |
| fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance | 110 | $14.0K | 12,797 | 12,797 | +0 | Spain | -$12 | 07-19 21:42 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on July 12? | 5 | $13.8K | 13,795 | 0 | +13,795 | No | +$14 | 07-11 09:05 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? | 148 | $13.4K | 7,611 | 7,611 | +0 | open | — | 11-03 22:12 |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | 68 | $13.2K | 10,347 | 3,160 | +7,187 | open | — | 11-07 22:50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8? | 61 | $13.1K | 13,176 | 144 | +13,032 | No | +$245 | 07-08 18:28 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 4 | $12.8K | 6,400 | 6,400 | +0 | No | +$6 | 10-21 18:53 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 1? | 13 | $12.6K | 12,650 | 0 | +12,650 | No | +$26 | 07-01 14:08 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 1? | 6 | $12.5K | 12,529 | 0 | +12,529 | No | +$13 | 07-01 03:19 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 67 | $12.2K | 6,400 | 6,200 | +200 | open | — | 11-09 02:53 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? | 75 | $12.1K | 13,623 | 58 | +13,565 | Yes | -$51 | 06-27 16:41 |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-11-08? | 52 | $11.5K | 11,932 | 0 | +11,932 | Yes | +$404 | 11-08 15:47 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? | 48 | $11.3K | 5,815 | 5,815 | +0 | open | — | 08-09 15:20 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? | 69 | $10.7K | 7,655 | 3,376 | +4,280 | open | — | 11-07 03:12 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 5 | $10.4K | 5,429 | 5,000 | +429 | No | +$2 | 10-28 17:59 |
| Obama arrested before 2027? | 88 | $10.4K | 5,913 | 4,819 | +1,094 | open | — | 11-09 17:35 |
| Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? | 86 | $10.2K | 13,939 | 13,939 | +0 | Yes | +$3,888 | 11-08 18:29 |
| trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374 | 56 | $9.7K | 4,900 | 4,900 | +0 | No | +$4 | 07-23 05:59 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||