Complicated-Innovation 0x585bef…f4753f
cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$21.8K
Unrealized P&L
-$295
Hit rate
37.8%
Resolved
241
Trades
1,491
lifetime
Volume
$85.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$57
Open exposure
$2.23K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 10-09 00:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 65 days
Categories
Other
59% 34% -$12,839
Politics
19% 54% -$7,831
Crypto
12% 52% +$2,188
Sports
7% 60% -$3,278
Tech
3% 50% -$77
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
15 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No +394 $126 88¢ $349 +$223 04-28 18:36
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No +264 $93 98¢ $260 +$168 04-28 22:09
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No +205 $149 98¢ $201 +$51 04-28 19:43
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +265 $181 76¢ $200 +$19 04-28 23:49
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No +199 $131 85¢ $169 +$38 04-28 23:44
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No +333 $154 36¢ $122 -$33 04-28 22:01
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No +104 $159 95¢ $99 -$60 04-28 17:12
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +200 $114 48¢ $95 -$19 10-06 14:05
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? No +100 $78 95¢ $95 +$17 04-28 18:40
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +100 $59 92¢ $92 +$33 04-28 18:20
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes +242 $191 36¢ $86 -$105 04-28 22:55
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes +526 $199 11¢ $55 -$143 04-28 20:37
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes +67 $43 78¢ $52 +$8 04-28 17:49
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? No +207 $166 18¢ $38 -$128 04-28 17:19
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes +235 $169 16¢ $36 -$133 04-28 14:16
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? Yes +223 $125 16¢ $35 -$90 04-28 23:42
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No +35 $32 94¢ $33 +$1 04-28 22:14
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? Yes +705 $59 4¢ $30 -$29 08-29 09:26
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +157 $35 14¢ $21 -$13 04-28 14:55
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +259 $111 8¢ $21 -$90 04-28 20:47
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No +21 -$153 98¢ $21 +$173 10-09 00:37
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No +100 $59 18¢ $18 -$41 05-20 00:50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +100 $27 16¢ $16 -$10 05-05 23:10
Rippling IPO before 2027? Yes +272 $54 5¢ $15 -$39 04-28 22:45
Celonis IPO before 2027? Yes +160 $64 9¢ $14 -$49 04-28 17:09
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No +15 $11 97¢ $14 +$3 04-28 20:39
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +208 $12 6¢ $12 -$1 10-05 16:33
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No +100 $46 10¢ $10 -$36 05-19 22:52
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +56 $20 16¢ $9 -$11 04-28 13:28
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? No +12 $7 74¢ $9 +$2 04-28 22:25