Complicated-Innovation 0x585bef…f4753f
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Realized P&L (30d)
+$92
Unrealized P&L
-$398
Hit rate
47.7%
Resolved (30d)
8
Trades (30d)
7
1,491 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$638
$85.1K lifetime
Avg / trade
$57
Open exposure
$2.27K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 10-09 00:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 64 days
Categories
Other
59% 35% -$12,742
Politics
19% 54% -$7,831
Crypto
12% 52% +$2,188
Sports
7% 60% -$3,278
Tech
3% 55% -$74
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
16 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No +394 $126 88¢ $349 +$223 04-28 18:36
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No +264 $93 98¢ $260 +$168 04-28 22:09
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +265 $181 77¢ $204 +$23 04-28 23:49
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No +205 $149 97¢ $199 +$50 04-28 19:43
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No +199 $131 86¢ $171 +$40 04-28 23:44
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No +333 $154 42¢ $140 -$14 04-28 22:01
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes +242 $191 42¢ $100 -$90 04-28 22:55
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No +104 $159 95¢ $99 -$60 04-28 17:12
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? No +100 $78 95¢ $95 +$17 04-28 18:40
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +100 $59 94¢ $94 +$34 04-28 18:20
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +200 $114 41¢ $82 -$32 10-06 14:05
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes +67 $43 78¢ $52 +$9 04-28 17:49
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes +526 $199 10¢ $50 -$149 04-28 20:37
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes +235 $169 18¢ $42 -$127 04-28 14:16
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? Yes +223 $125 18¢ $41 -$84 04-28 23:42
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? No +207 $166 20¢ $40 -$125 04-28 17:19
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No +35 $32 96¢ $33 +$2 04-28 22:14
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? Yes +705 $59 4¢ $31 -$29 08-29 09:26
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +157 $35 15¢ $23 -$12 04-28 14:55
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No +21 -$153 98¢ $21 +$173 10-09 00:37
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No +100 $59 20¢ $20 -$40 05-20 00:50
Rippling IPO before 2027? Yes +272 $54 7¢ $19 -$35 04-28 22:45
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +100 $27 18¢ $18 -$8 05-05 23:10
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +259 $111 6¢ $17 -$94 04-28 20:47
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No +15 $11 95¢ $14 +$3 04-28 20:39
Celonis IPO before 2027? Yes +160 $64 8¢ $14 -$50 04-28 17:09
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +208 $12 6¢ $12 $0 10-05 16:33
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +60 $28 18¢ $11 -$16 04-28 21:01
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +56 $20 17¢ $10 -$10 04-28 13:28
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Yes +304 $173 3¢ $10 -$164 04-28 20:12