Official-Barley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.30K

Unrealized P&L

-$50

Hit rate

96.0%

Resolved

Trades

7,831

lifetime

Volume

$2.66M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$340

Open exposure

$366

1 position

First seen

2026-02-19

last 06-18 10:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

84% 75% +$4,031

Other

16% 40% +$1,268

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 304 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?	No		-400	$-316	92¢	$-366	$-50	06-18 10:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	491	$389.9K	399,603	217,684	+181,918	open	—	04-09 20:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	440	$268.6K	373,259	304,953	+68,305	open	—	04-08 19:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	420	$203.4K	338,892	170,023	+168,869	open	—	03-01 01:58
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	55	$173.6K	118,976	58,476	+60,500	open	—	03-04 18:27
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	111	$105.4K	73,466	56,788	+16,678	open	—	05-18 22:06
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	78	$90.5K	61,986	29,902	+32,083	No	+$444	04-24 14:45
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	128	$79.4K	71,798	61,809	+9,989	open	—	05-01 01:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	314	$72.9K	111,303	101,900	+9,404	open	—	04-07 22:45
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	258	$66.9K	82,814	56,468	+26,346	open	—	04-16 02:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	219	$59.4K	47,899	44,744	+3,154	open	—	04-27 13:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	284	$58.0K	137,545	68,150	+69,395	open	—	04-08 00:04
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	119	$54.5K	81,503	73,699	+7,804	open	—	05-19 00:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	155	$43.9K	65,757	63,447	+2,310	open	—	03-26 20:58
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	60	$43.7K	77,688	27,648	+50,040	open	—	04-17 01:49
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	59	$42.1K	46,906	5,410	+41,496	open	—	04-30 19:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	87	$40.7K	52,496	39,740	+12,756	open	—	02-28 20:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	114	$38.8K	107,197	51,529	+55,668	Yes	+$4,109	05-09 18:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	159	$35.6K	58,623	32,323	+26,300	open	—	05-09 13:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	68	$34.8K	61,606	63,606	-2,000	open	—	05-27 01:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	104	$25.1K	57,879	57,895	-16	open	—	05-11 14:27
will gta 6 cost 100	2	$21.7K	10,894	10,894	+0	open	—	02-28 22:02
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	17	$21.6K	21,655	567	+21,088	open	—	05-14 16:25
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	94	$21.3K	32,758	31,736	+1,022	open	—	03-28 00:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	110	$21.3K	16,993	16,520	+473	open	—	05-20 16:42
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	29	$20.0K	11,978	11,978	+0	open	—	03-26 05:37
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	67	$19.4K	136,678	126,884	+9,794	open	—	05-18 00:28
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	82	$18.5K	46,167	26,167	+20,000	open	—	04-05 04:22
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	40	$18.4K	10,100	10,100	+0	open	—	05-10 19:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 10	45	$17.2K	26,553	700	+25,853	open	—	04-08 00:19
will the 2026 state of the union address last 100 minutes or longer	89	$16.0K	12,620	12,328	+292	open	—	02-25 03:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 10:42:40	Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?	No	SELL	400	79¢	$316	0x6f2aa6…
05-27 01:19:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,666	24¢	$880	0xbade72…
05-26 11:17:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,666	31¢	$516	0x504d3c…
05-26 11:05:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	31¢	$620	0x1b0a0c…
05-25 03:24:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,718	21¢	$1,201	0x9fc7f1…
05-24 01:35:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	45¢	$272	0xade9bc…
05-23 03:32:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	482	17¢	$82	0xcd0469…
05-23 03:13:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	17¢	$15	0xc17442…
05-21 20:44:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	SELL	855	24¢	$205	0x51fd70…
05-20 16:58:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	2,060	94¢	$1,937	0x701c98…
05-20 16:53:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0xb4bdcc…
05-20 16:53:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xb975f2…
05-20 16:51:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	2,300	94¢	$2,162	0x7ea1fb…
05-20 16:49:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x25bb5d…
05-20 16:49:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xd67569…
05-20 16:49:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x4cf92c…
05-20 16:49:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$2	0xd01287…
05-20 16:48:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x545bad…
05-20 16:45:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x1eeb6c…
05-20 16:44:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0xc457a5…
05-20 16:42:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	334	25¢	$83	0x9b619a…
05-20 16:41:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	1,160	24¢	$278	0xc52f4f…
05-20 16:40:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x3cefbc…
05-20 16:38:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	177	94¢	$166	0x204e6d…
05-20 16:36:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	1,869	94¢	$1,757	0x20990b…
05-20 14:56:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	434	20¢	$87	0xe8148e…
05-20 14:56:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	390	20¢	$78	0x9b45f6…
05-20 14:48:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	176	20¢	$35	0x877f6c…
05-19 22:31:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	34	42¢	$14	0x49158c…
05-19 22:30:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	52	42¢	$22	0x20328b…
05-19 22:26:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xf2859b…
05-19 21:28:20	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	530	100¢	$528	0xf094b6…
05-19 21:19:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	72	42¢	$30	0xf904b2…
05-19 21:02:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	554	42¢	$233	0xc4090b…
05-19 20:16:00	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0x0b5b52…
05-19 20:06:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	86	81¢	$70	0x0b7257…
05-19 20:06:21	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	231	81¢	$187	0x5068c8…
05-19 20:06:19	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	69	81¢	$56	0x9ec6e4…
05-19 20:05:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0xf488d2…
05-19 20:05:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0x782d22…
05-19 20:05:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	70	81¢	$57	0x108a9e…
05-19 20:05:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	370	81¢	$300	0xa86aec…
05-19 20:04:31	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0x559efa…
05-19 20:04:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x949f76…
05-19 20:04:01	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xc3cc5b…
05-19 19:59:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0xfaf931…
05-19 19:58:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	22	81¢	$18	0x626ed3…
05-19 19:57:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	294	81¢	$238	0x0df7bb…
05-19 19:56:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	119	81¢	$96	0xf89348…
05-19 19:55:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	818	81¢	$662	0x7aeea8…
05-19 19:53:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xd8bf8f…
05-19 19:53:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x2bea3c…
05-19 19:53:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x5192ed…
05-19 19:50:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x77a9e0…
05-19 19:50:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	26	81¢	$21	0x4b7de3…
05-19 19:50:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x2b81ad…
05-19 19:50:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	56	81¢	$45	0x05ec34…
05-19 19:39:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	125	42¢	$53	0x4a2580…
05-19 19:36:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0x90314f…
05-19 19:34:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	3,000	80¢	$2,400	0xd3d44f…
05-19 19:32:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	2,000	80¢	$1,600	0x341104…
05-19 19:32:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0x7f01c9…
05-19 19:26:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0xbad839…
05-19 19:26:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x2a3fb0…
05-19 19:24:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x0427b5…
05-19 19:23:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	476	79¢	$376	0xc4567a…
05-19 19:21:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	808	39¢	$315	0x09af2f…
05-19 19:21:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	83	79¢	$66	0x82458d…
05-19 19:19:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	300	79¢	$237	0xb92572…
05-19 19:14:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	69	37¢	$25	0x31b51c…
05-19 19:01:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	136	37¢	$50	0xa23abf…
05-19 19:00:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	332	37¢	$123	0x7df085…
05-19 18:59:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	418	37¢	$155	0xd6796e…
05-19 18:59:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	756	37¢	$280	0x8e7ac5…
05-19 18:53:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x78bfc7…
05-19 18:53:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xd6f6e7…
05-19 18:53:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x74a0b3…
05-19 18:53:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x5f103e…
05-19 18:53:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xb25a6d…
05-19 18:53:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	18	37¢	$7	0x32d5a6…
05-19 18:52:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x22f8d8…
05-19 18:42:23	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	628	65¢	$408	0xb57843…
05-19 18:41:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	4	65¢	$2	0x5468e7…
05-19 18:41:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	15	65¢	$10	0x328bac…
05-19 18:40:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	350	65¢	$228	0x0353f9…
05-19 18:40:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	100	65¢	$65	0xfe0218…
05-19 18:40:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	500	65¢	$325	0xf6e80b…
05-19 18:40:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	36	65¢	$24	0xde6e55…
05-19 18:37:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	48	65¢	$31	0x98225a…
05-19 18:36:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	15	65¢	$10	0xcffb57…
05-19 18:36:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	200	65¢	$130	0x80b789…
05-19 18:34:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	11	65¢	$7	0x862946…
05-19 18:33:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xc4ea8a…
05-19 18:32:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xbc9d84…
05-19 18:31:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x254c27…
05-19 18:31:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x75e4f0…
05-19 18:31:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xfe70b3…
05-19 18:31:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x9348f0…
05-19 18:30:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x464200…
05-19 18:30:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0x15ddbf…