Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?
open
Total volume
$7,784
$2,567 in 24h
Trades
48
Unique wallets
26
Liquidity
$6,199
Latest YES mid
44¢
Latest NO mid
56¢
End date
2026-07-03
First seen
2026-05-07
last 05-17 05:02
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 1 | $2.4K | — | +$2.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $2.9K | $168 | +$2.7K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 21 | $44 | $179 | $136 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $2.4K | $163 | +$2.2K |
| Median | 5 | $2.9K | $2 | +$2.9K |
| Below median | 4 | $2 | $100 | $98 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $5 | $5 |
| unranked | 11 | $19 | $78 | $59 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talkative-Painting 0x0a54…4a03 | Yes | +2,456 | $2,402 | $2,402 | 2 | 05-16 17:21 |
| Official-Barley 0xd414…a4db | No | +1,390 | $163 | $163 | 3 | 05-16 00:58 |
| Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | +692 | $1,829 | $3,196 | 12 | 05-16 17:06 |
| Prudent-Netball 0xf915…8720 | Yes | +641 | $358 | $358 | 2 | 05-16 17:21 |
| Illiterate-Plot 0x8d92…d269 | No | +508 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-14 12:52 |
| Large-Automaton 0xd34d…b5c3 | No | +500 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-15 18:32 |
| Trained-Subsidence 0x7373…7701 | No | +190 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-15 17:39 |
| Corrupt-Clearing 0x85f9…86dd | No | +151 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 05-16 17:17 |
| Academic-Astrakhan 0x5f2c…fdba | No | +68 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 05-16 15:04 |
| Intentional-Facsimile 0x3eac…fe52 | Yes | +20 | $11 | $11 | 4 | 05-16 17:11 |
| Dual-Appliance 0xac23…46eb | Yes | +20 | $9 | $9 | 4 | 05-17 01:03 |
| Unlawful-Lobotomy 0x5db2…ab4e | Yes | +18 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 05-14 12:37 |
| Aggressive-Linkage-Cleric 0x6ae9…0222 | No | +16 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-16 23:20 |
| Concerned-Mistake 0x86aa…a85b | No | +15 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-17 00:17 |
| Shocked-Fund 0x4014…8c3f | No | +10 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-16 22:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xbecc…f560 | Yes | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-16 17:11 |
| Unaware-Vignette 0x6837…1108 | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-17 03:47 |
| Strange-Solution 0x0b2b…df2e | Yes | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-16 11:20 |
| Jolly-Steward 0x6b67…bcbf | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-17 05:02 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-17 05:02:07 | Jolly-Steward 0x6b67…bcbf | Yes | BUY | 2 | 55¢ | $1 | 0xb98a29… |
| 05-17 04:17:19 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x2e99cc… |
| 05-17 04:04:19 | Likable-Light 0x26ea…9982 | No | SELL | 18 | 47¢ | $9 | 0x148c37… |
| 05-17 04:04:13 | Likable-Light 0x26ea…9982 | No | SELL | 12 | 52¢ | $6 | 0x704d02… |
| 05-17 03:47:34 | Unaware-Vignette 0x6837…1108 | No | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x5f5a47… |
| 05-17 01:03:04 | Dual-Appliance 0xac23…46eb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 46¢ | $2 | 0x3dfcc6… |
| 05-17 00:45:29 | Dual-Appliance 0xac23…46eb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 47¢ | $2 | 0xc82acd… |
| 05-17 00:44:45 | Dual-Appliance 0xac23…46eb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 47¢ | $2 | 0xcde7bd… |
| 05-17 00:43:05 | Dual-Appliance 0xac23…46eb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 47¢ | $2 | 0xc1615b… |
| 05-17 00:17:25 | Concerned-Mistake 0x86aa…a85b | No | BUY | 15 | 66¢ | $10 | 0xad3478… |
| 05-16 23:20:54 | Aggressive-Linkage-Cleric 0x6ae9…0222 | No | BUY | 16 | 61¢ | $10 | 0xf06688… |
| 05-16 22:04:13 | Shocked-Fund 0x4014…8c3f | No | BUY | 10 | 50¢ | $5 | 0xa12d92… |
| 05-16 17:21:30 | Prudent-Netball 0xf915…8720 | Yes | BUY | 72 | 53¢ | $38 | 0x901590… |
| 05-16 17:21:15 | Talkative-Painting 0x0a54…4a03 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 47¢ | $4 | 0x128428… |
| 05-16 17:17:03 | Corrupt-Clearing 0x85f9…86dd | No | BUY | 151 | 66¢ | $100 | 0xbc00ea… |
| 05-16 17:11:55 | Prudent-Netball 0xf915…8720 | Yes | BUY | 569 | 56¢ | $320 | 0xe3d063… |
| 05-16 17:11:55 | (anonymous) 0xbecc…f560 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 53¢ | $3 | 0xfb1b44… |
| 05-16 17:11:25 | Intentional-Facsimile 0x3eac…fe52 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 53¢ | $3 | 0x14289c… |
| 05-16 17:11:20 | Intentional-Facsimile 0x3eac…fe52 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 53¢ | $3 | 0x76bb38… |
| 05-16 17:06:54 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | SELL | 2,000 | 34¢ | $683 | 0x60901c… |
| 05-16 16:26:51 | Intentional-Facsimile 0x3eac…fe52 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 56¢ | $3 | 0xfd6806… |
| 05-16 15:04:06 | Academic-Astrakhan 0x5f2c…fdba | No | BUY | 68 | 59¢ | $40 | 0x9c2aec… |
| 05-16 13:00:56 | Adventurous-Picture 0x15e9…6f37 | No | SELL | 7 | 42¢ | $3 | 0xeb1c58… |
| 05-16 11:25:28 | Intentional-Facsimile 0x3eac…fe52 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x2a55d1… |
| 05-16 11:20:57 | Strange-Solution 0x0b2b…df2e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 57¢ | $2 | 0x2cffc4… |
| 05-16 05:26:15 | Courageous-Pimple 0x8191…3868 | No | SELL | 10 | 36¢ | $4 | 0xb875db… |
| 05-16 00:58:58 | Official-Barley 0xd414…a4db | No | BUY | 25 | 37¢ | $9 | 0x4b8567… |
| 05-15 22:40:50 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 93¢ | $928 | 0xf7bcde… |
| 05-15 22:40:40 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 400 | 93¢ | $371 | 0x71e317… |
| 05-15 22:40:31 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 93¢ | $926 | 0xc70748… |
| 05-15 21:43:56 | Official-Barley 0xd414…a4db | No | BUY | 500 | 14¢ | $70 | 0x260630… |
| 05-15 21:23:43 | Official-Barley 0xd414…a4db | No | BUY | 864 | 10¢ | $84 | 0xc30242… |
| 05-15 18:48:02 | Hidden-Commission 0xdc8d…84bc | Yes | SELL | 1,443 | 98¢ | $1,414 | 0xb6c7fe… |
| 05-15 18:32:57 | Large-Automaton 0xd34d…b5c3 | No | BUY | 500 | 1¢ | $5 | 0x450698… |
| 05-15 17:39:55 | Trained-Subsidence 0x7373…7701 | No | BUY | 190 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x1ec481… |
| 05-15 14:01:03 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 72 | 100¢ | $71 | 0xbbb185… |
| 05-15 14:00:56 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 100¢ | $22 | 0xdad367… |
| 05-15 14:00:34 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x374b8c… |
| 05-14 14:44:23 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 98¢ | $27 | 0x5ce493… |
| 05-14 14:44:18 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 98¢ | $11 | 0x0b6591… |
| 05-14 12:52:58 | Illiterate-Plot 0x8d92…d269 | No | BUY | 508 | 2¢ | $10 | 0x1f21c6… |
| 05-14 12:37:36 | Unlawful-Lobotomy 0x5db2…ab4e | Yes | BUY | 18 | 98¢ | $18 | 0x91023d… |
| 05-14 08:09:16 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0x1ffed3… |
| 05-14 08:09:09 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 49 | 98¢ | $48 | 0x5df47f… |
| 05-13 19:42:32 | Talkative-Painting 0x0a54…4a03 | Yes | BUY | 2,448 | 98¢ | $2,399 | 0xed794a… |
| 05-10 01:40:50 | Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0x034024… |
| 05-07 16:46:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 0 | 98¢ | $0 | 0x14a871… |
| 05-07 11:39:25 | Brown-Destination 0xc540…f00d | No | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x68f236… |