Improbable-Entry 0x7e8004…ba631b
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$3.96K
Unrealized P&L
-$889
Hit rate
23.8%
Resolved
275
Trades
96,379
lifetime
Volume
$2.35M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$2.96K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 07-03 18:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Other
54% 21% $-3,346
Politics
33% 19% $-388
Tech
5% 0% $-44
Crypto
5% 67% $-17
Sports
3% 14% $-161
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 2953 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -797 $-569 100¢ $-795 $-227 06-15 15:45
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No -502 $-412 96¢ $-485 $-73 06-12 08:58
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -200 $-73 75¢ $-150 $-77 06-03 14:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -211 $16 70¢ $-149 $-164 06-19 02:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No -200 $-96 60¢ $-121 $-25 06-16 06:04
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +207 $109 57¢ $118 +$9 06-26 19:14
Will SZA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +112 $108 98¢ $109 +$1 05-29 18:28
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes -195 $-61 48¢ $-93 $-31 06-14 18:29
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -100 $-78 86¢ $-86 $-8 06-13 18:39
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -93 $-50 88¢ $-81 $-31 06-16 12:38
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic -100 $-21 80¢ $-80 $-59 06-16 04:03
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No -80 $-61 99¢ $-79 $-18 06-19 06:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +191 $93 40¢ $75 $-18 06-07 02:04
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -100 $-42 75¢ $-75 $-33 06-18 16:34
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +67 $62 95¢ $63 +$1 06-05 18:05
Will Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes -41 $-23 99¢ $-41 $-18 06-18 15:48
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +66 $44 60¢ $39 $-4 06-29 04:14
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No -50 $-42 74¢ $-37 +$5 06-03 21:02
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No -38 $-36 94¢ $-36 $-1 06-21 19:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +200 $35 18¢ $35 $-0 06-16 23:09
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes -101 $-20 27¢ $-27 $-7 06-08 22:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -211 $-38 12¢ $-26 +$12 06-11 19:20
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes -218 $-40 12¢ $-26 +$14 06-17 12:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -87 $59 30¢ $-26 $-84 06-19 01:44
Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +31 $26 80¢ $25 $-1 06-17 18:40
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +54 $59 43¢ $23 $-36 06-24 03:28
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? No -20 $1 76¢ $-15 $-16 06-12 15:34
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? Yes -20 $-12 73¢ $-15 $-2 06-03 23:59
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhao Leji in 2026? Yes -320 $-16 5¢ $-15 +$2 06-09 20:54
City Protocol FDV above $200M one day after launch? No -20 $-14 70¢ $-14 $-0 06-16 22:48