Improbable-Entry 0x7e8004…ba631b
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$3.96K
Unrealized P&L
-$605
Hit rate
23.8%
Resolved
275
Trades
99,111
lifetime
Volume
$2.37M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$2.11K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 07-24 00:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Other
54% 21% $-3,346
Politics
33% 19% $-388
Tech
5% 0% $-44
Crypto
5% 67% $-17
Sports
3% 14% $-161
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 2953 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No -502 $-412 88¢ $-444 $-32 06-12 08:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -211 $16 78¢ $-163 $-179 06-19 02:33
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes -195 $-61 72¢ $-141 $-80 06-14 18:29
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -200 $-73 66¢ $-133 $-60 06-03 14:45
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +207 $109 62¢ $129 +$20 06-26 19:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No -200 $-96 64¢ $-127 $-31 06-16 06:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +200 $35 48¢ $97 +$62 06-16 23:09
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic -100 $-21 86¢ $-86 $-66 06-16 04:03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -100 $-78 86¢ $-86 $-8 06-13 18:39
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -100 $-42 79¢ $-79 $-37 06-18 16:34
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -93 $-50 84¢ $-78 $-28 06-16 12:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +191 $93 36¢ $70 $-24 06-07 02:04
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +67 $62 95¢ $63 +$1 06-05 18:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -211 $-38 30¢ $-62 $-24 06-11 19:20
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No -50 $-42 92¢ $-46 $-4 06-03 21:02
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +66 $44 66¢ $44 +$0 06-29 04:14
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes -218 $-40 16¢ $-34 +$6 06-17 12:59
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes -101 $-20 29¢ $-29 $-9 06-08 22:58
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +204 $33 12¢ $23 $-9 05-28 23:09
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +83 $20 28¢ $23 +$3 06-15 05:53
Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +31 $26 65¢ $20 $-6 06-17 18:40
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +54 $59 38¢ $20 $-38 06-24 03:28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -87 $59 22¢ $-20 $-78 06-19 01:44
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? No -25 $-19 76¢ $-19 $-0 07-24 01:02
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhao Leji in 2026? Yes -320 $-16 5¢ $-16 +$1 06-09 20:54
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? No -20 $1 66¢ $-13 $-14 06-12 15:34
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes -112 $-45 12¢ $-13 +$32 06-22 11:01
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes -17 $-11 70¢ $-12 $-1 06-18 08:01
City Protocol FDV above $200M one day after launch? No -20 $-14 59¢ $-12 +$2 06-16 22:48
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote) Labour +20 $14 55¢ $11 $-3 06-25 08:58