Improbable-Entry 0x7e8004…ba631b
whale bot cold 7L streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$111.6K
Unrealized P&L
-$418
Hit rate
24.7%
Resolved
22,854
Trades
188,296
lifetime
Volume
$3.51M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$19
Open exposure
$2.73K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 10-29 17:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 259 days
Categories
Other
60% 42% -$74,445
Politics
28% 26% -$22,185
Tech
4% 18% -$5,244
Sports
3% 23% -$6,646
Crypto
3% 34% -$2,329
Pop-Culture
0% 30% -$722
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
51 active days in 12wk • peak 744 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -486 -$134 95¢ $-460 -$327 06-17 08:36
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? No +434 $328 99¢ $429 +$101 06-11 18:39
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +399 $337 100¢ $399 +$62 06-05 13:33
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes -406 -$278 97¢ $-395 -$117 06-09 20:54
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +305 $294 97¢ $296 +$2 06-17 18:19
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +112 $102 100¢ $112 +$10 06-15 17:19
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -111 -$73 97¢ $-108 -$35 06-14 23:41
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No +109 $30 98¢ $107 +$77 07-05 07:11
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award? Yes -109 $0 98¢ $-106 -$106 07-04 16:40
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +186 $64 41¢ $76 +$12 05-28 15:47
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes -186 -$25 41¢ $-76 -$51 05-28 17:06
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +51 $49 100¢ $51 +$2 05-20 16:40
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No -50 $48 95¢ $-47 -$95 06-01 20:36
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +109 $40 14¢ $15 -$25 06-30 14:27
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes -20 -$9 68¢ $-14 -$5 05-01 23:05
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No -5 -$5 100¢ $-5 $0 06-08 21:14
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +157 $74 3¢ $4 -$70 06-18 04:14
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes -109 -$4 4¢ $-4 $0 05-29 16:10
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes -486 -$5 1¢ $-3 +$2 05-28 05:44
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes -3 -$1 98¢ $-3 -$2 06-08 19:34
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes -101 -$1 3¢ $-3 -$2 06-14 17:09
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -109 -$6 2¢ $-3 +$3 06-08 21:14
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes -268 -$49 1¢ $-3 +$47 06-18 19:13
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes +3 $10 97¢ $3 -$8 07-17 03:51
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes -2 -$2 96¢ $-2 $0 06-08 20:00
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes -486 -$68 0¢ $-2 +$65 06-01 04:16
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes -486 -$44 0¢ $-2 +$42 05-28 20:29
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? No -2 -$2 96¢ $-2 $0 06-08 20:00
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes -2 -$1 90¢ $-2 -$1 06-08 19:33
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? No -2 -$2 97¢ $-2 $0 06-08 20:00