Improbable-Entry 0x7e8004…ba631b
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$3.96K
Unrealized P&L
-$772
Hit rate
23.8%
Resolved
275
Trades
80,417
lifetime
Volume
$2.03M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$4.51K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 06-13 06:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Other
58% 21% $-3,346
Politics
31% 19% $-388
Crypto
5% 67% $-17
Tech
4% 0% $-44
Sports
2% 14% $-161
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 3507 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No -1,463 $-1,365 89¢ $-1298 +$67 06-13 02:40
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No -502 $-412 90¢ $-450 $-38 06-12 08:58
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes -403 $-37 52¢ $-212 $-175 06-13 12:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No -407 $-197 48¢ $-193 +$4 06-13 12:17
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes +266 $215 72¢ $190 $-25 06-12 20:44
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +200 $135 92¢ $183 +$48 06-11 21:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -193 $-101 78¢ $-150 $-48 06-12 10:08
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes +417 $402 30¢ $126 $-276 06-11 21:16
Will SZA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +112 $108 99¢ $110 +$2 05-29 18:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No -367 $-108 29¢ $-105 +$3 06-13 12:51
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +207 $106 50¢ $102 $-4 06-09 17:00
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes -417 $-88 24¢ $-98 $-10 06-12 15:37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -865 $-36 11¢ $-97 $-61 06-12 21:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +200 $163 48¢ $95 $-68 06-13 02:37
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No -101 $-82 94¢ $-94 $-12 06-12 10:33
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -200 $-73 46¢ $-92 $-19 06-03 14:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +191 $93 46¢ $89 $-5 06-07 02:04
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No -394 $-109 22¢ $-89 +$20 06-13 11:56
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No -102 $-32 83¢ $-84 $-53 06-08 21:20
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No -81 $-60 93¢ $-76 $-16 05-30 10:25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Yes +73 $88 100¢ $73 $-15 06-12 07:44
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -93 $-52 76¢ $-71 $-19 06-11 18:05
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No -199 $-64 34¢ $-67 $-3 06-13 06:56
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No +90 $111 71¢ $63 $-48 06-12 17:36
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes -82 $-72 78¢ $-63 +$8 06-11 19:49
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +67 $62 93¢ $62 $-0 06-05 18:05
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +103 $49 49¢ $50 +$1 06-13 03:11
Will Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes -50 $-27 92¢ $-46 $-18 06-09 18:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +299 $56 15¢ $43 $-13 06-13 12:22
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No -50 $-42 85¢ $-43 $-1 06-03 21:02