Agreeable-Birth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$781

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.1%

Resolved

102

Trades

13,872

lifetime

Volume

$135.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-18

last 08-11 01:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Politics

51% 52% +$757

Other

40% 45% +$24

Sports

4% — —

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 319 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	96	$6.2K	5,732	3,789	+1,944	open	—	05-07 17:27
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	59	$1.6K	2,661	1,611	+1,050	open	—	05-02 01:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	110	$1.6K	1,200	1,131	+69	open	—	04-26 09:37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	77	$1.3K	1,133	1,086	+48	open	—	05-11 08:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	190	$1.0K	2,069	1,546	+522	open	—	05-29 22:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	47	$990	2,036	1,025	+1,011	open	—	04-22 17:12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	41	$970	599	533	+66	open	—	04-25 14:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	44	$941	693	589	+104	No	+$62	05-03 18:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	89	$899	2,429	1,401	+1,028	open	—	05-13 07:33
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	53	$898	804	679	+125	open	—	04-21 15:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	94	$864	922	775	+147	open	—	04-30 15:27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	56	$805	548	535	+13	open	—	04-30 18:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	72	$790	854	736	+118	Yes	+$90	05-09 04:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	27	$719	246	1,245	-999	open	—	06-14 21:48
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	47	$711	722	547	+175	open	—	04-21 15:22
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	48	$674	449	443	+6	open	—	04-25 20:23
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	28	$659	494	215	+279	open	—	04-21 18:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	90	$633	960	852	+108	open	—	06-28 06:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	63	$615	654	726	-72	open	—	07-28 14:39
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	46	$591	862	448	+415	open	—	05-01 18:33
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	41	$559	694	527	+166	open	—	04-28 18:25
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	59	$559	686	612	+74	open	—	08-07 23:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	71	$552	594	417	+177	open	—	05-25 02:07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	4	$544	575	6	+569	open	—	04-29 16:10
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	34	$528	284	275	+9	open	—	04-24 14:54
wta boisson rybakin 2026 06 29	2	$525	564	0	+564	open	—	06-30 15:04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	17	$524	653	402	+251	open	—	04-24 19:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	24	$522	341	287	+54	No	$-1	05-07 21:50
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	46	$517	403	255	+148	open	—	07-11 22:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	48	$505	501	580	-79	open	—	06-16 02:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 06:58:21	will russia enter dobropillia by december 31	No	SELL	30	15¢	$4	0xef5f74…
08-11 01:12:10	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x5188eb…
08-11 00:46:33	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0x674e4c…
08-11 00:44:45	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	SELL	18	77¢	$14	0x3f90cf…
08-10 23:44:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0xa6b953…
08-10 20:01:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0x74bf89…
08-10 19:59:33	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x0fb833…
08-10 15:49:48	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	17	19¢	$3	0xfe0f59…
08-10 15:43:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x4478a2…
08-10 15:24:36	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0xdc696a…
08-10 15:14:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x90653b…
08-10 14:48:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x8adcc4…
08-10 13:45:10	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	54¢	$0	0x4ee987…
08-10 13:43:30	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	55¢	$13	0xc11376…
08-10 11:25:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	83	91¢	$76	0x2400f4…
08-10 10:40:52	will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635	No	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x1bdf87…
08-10 07:57:57	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	No	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0x9deb67…
08-10 07:57:52	will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0xad2b9d…
08-10 07:11:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x5f1dac…
08-10 04:30:57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	55¢	$0	0x467b83…
08-10 04:30:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	24	93¢	$22	0x2ff685…
08-10 04:21:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	19	93¢	$17	0x8323c5…
08-10 04:16:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	54	93¢	$51	0x85e85b…
08-10 00:01:58	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xee52f4…
08-09 21:49:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	12	14¢	$2	0x5574bd…
08-09 21:25:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xace0e8…
08-09 20:35:51	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xd85363…
08-09 20:28:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf154ef…
08-09 12:09:06	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x36eea8…
08-09 11:50:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x20fc80…
08-09 11:30:33	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	11	31¢	$3	0xd1f63c…
08-09 08:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	69	91¢	$63	0x7a3091…
08-09 04:01:27	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x6323ff…
08-08 21:26:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	59	7¢	$4	0x1c748f…
08-08 19:39:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x967f24…
08-08 17:33:12	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x0ca3c0…
08-08 17:33:04	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by december 31	Yes	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xbad489…
08-08 15:53:34	will deepseek ipo by march 31 2027 20260714175933545	No	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0xf74fdd…
08-08 15:47:28	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	39	69¢	$27	0x89eb38…
08-08 15:04:39	clf psg mun 2026 08 08 spread home 1pt5	Manchester United	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x2a5057…
08-08 10:19:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x495e48…
08-08 01:47:37	will luan santana attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000739430	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xd07c2f…
08-07 23:33:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	32	83¢	$27	0x11fdef…
08-07 22:13:40	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260805160021492	Yes	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x3b367d…
08-07 22:11:25	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260805160021492	Yes	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0x5fab73…
08-07 21:59:39	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260805160021492	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x7ae86c…
08-07 21:43:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	42	96¢	$40	0x169ec3…
08-07 21:28:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x1ec85b…
08-07 21:08:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x79f7ac…
08-07 20:38:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x2d1dfa…
08-07 20:27:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x21806e…
08-07 20:16:18	wta mertens osaka 2026 08 08	Elise Mertens	BUY	385	30¢	$116	0x5c8e3f…
08-07 20:08:51	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x47907b…
08-07 20:07:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x574d10…
08-07 19:42:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xc9f088…
08-07 19:41:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x8e8768…
08-07 19:20:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	Yes	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0x836510…
08-07 19:09:34	wta joint samsono 2026 08 08	Maya Joint	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xcab506…
08-07 19:09:34	wta joint samsono 2026 08 08	Maya Joint	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0x45a446…
08-07 19:09:33	wta joint samsono 2026 08 08	Maya Joint	BUY	250	26¢	$65	0x59a05d…
08-07 19:08:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x49ccf5…
08-07 19:05:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	13	88¢	$11	0xe2eeaa…
08-07 19:05:30	wta joint samsono 2026 08 08	Maya Joint	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0xa68c3e…
08-07 19:03:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0xf52017…
08-07 19:01:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x4cf596…
08-07 18:11:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	9	87¢	$8	0xfb98ca…
08-07 17:53:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x8952d5…
08-07 17:37:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	17	93¢	$16	0x5ec7f3…
08-07 17:33:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0xaeaf7f…
08-07 16:38:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x798b20…
08-07 15:17:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x9b3aaa…
08-07 14:52:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x7172a1…
08-07 14:45:55	will coin reach 160 by august 3 2026	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0xca410c…
08-07 14:13:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x2560c8…
08-07 14:11:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x69bf20…
08-07 13:24:55	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260805160021492	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x973640…
08-07 13:08:33	will tony score at least 93 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260806170107430	No	SELL	9	17¢	$2	0x54a2c4…
08-07 12:59:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	44¢	$0	0x079a55…
08-07 12:57:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	26	44¢	$11	0x3e2ac8…
08-07 12:53:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	11	44¢	$5	0x1c30ed…
08-07 12:43:24	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0xa6824e…
08-07 12:40:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x5d3855…
08-07 12:28:36	will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x8565df…
08-07 08:34:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0x3cb99b…
08-07 08:02:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x32c093…
08-07 07:49:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	93	83¢	$77	0xf09ad0…
08-07 07:05:40	btc updown 5m 1786086000	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x119691…
08-07 06:43:25	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x91c2b8…
08-07 02:53:27	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xb4b82e…
08-07 02:25:13	will tony score at least 93 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260806170107430	No	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x27be20…
08-07 02:08:33	mlb sd ari 2026 08 06 spread away 1pt5	San Diego Padres	BUY	90	45¢	$41	0xa95a59…
08-07 02:08:33	mlb sd ari 2026 08 06 spread away 1pt5	San Diego Padres	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x2fe9b3…
08-07 02:07:25	mlb sd ari 2026 08 06 spread away 1pt5	San Diego Padres	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x260db0…
08-07 02:06:43	will luan santana attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000739430	No	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0x5e4d89…
08-07 02:03:55	will luan santana attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000739430	No	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x506b0e…
08-07 02:03:13	will jorge jesus attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000254153	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x7dd717…
08-07 02:00:36	will luan santana attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000739430	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x233f8b…
08-07 01:59:46	will nininho vaz maia attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000540828	No	SELL	12	56¢	$7	0x484d1f…
08-07 01:57:40	will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635	No	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0xb8897a…
08-07 01:55:12	will nininho vaz maia attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000540828	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0xe26523…