Offbeat-Flax — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,949

lifetime

Volume

$5.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-24

last 05-06 23:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

62% 42% $-5

Other

36% 15% $-14

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% 0% $-4

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 123 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	31	$125	129	125	+3	open	—	05-06 22:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	25	$99	110	110	-0	open	—	05-06 23:09
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	25	$93	107	107	-0	open	—	05-01 18:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	22	$93	85	85	+0	open	—	05-06 13:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	20	$87	67	67	+0	Yes	$-0	05-06 20:32
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	21	$76	59	59	+0	open	—	04-07 18:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	22	$70	64	64	+0	open	—	04-29 12:25
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	25	$67	87	87	+0	open	—	04-19 08:02
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	18	$65	66	66	+0	Yes	+$1	05-05 21:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	12	$60	54	54	+0	open	—	05-05 22:55
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	17	$58	56	56	+0	open	—	04-28 10:21
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	20	$56	47	47	+0	open	—	05-01 16:56
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	25	$55	116	116	+0	open	—	04-21 00:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	26	$54	84	84	+0	open	—	04-19 23:54
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	14	$49	150	150	+0	open	—	04-29 15:37
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	19	$47	93	93	+0	open	—	04-19 19:44
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	14	$47	49	49	+0	Yes	+$1	04-27 13:13
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	15	$46	66	66	+0	open	—	04-28 10:21
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	19	$46	192	192	+0	open	—	04-27 08:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	18	$44	40	40	+0	open	—	04-28 21:27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	16	$44	58	58	+0	open	—	04-25 13:51
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	6	$36	27	27	+0	open	—	05-05 22:00
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	19	$36	105	105	+0	open	—	04-19 16:04
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	18	$36	109	109	+0	open	—	04-14 02:01
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	6	$35	58	58	+0	open	—	05-06 04:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	18	$34	53	53	+0	open	—	04-22 14:02
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	14	$34	38	38	+0	open	—	04-21 20:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	10	$33	31	31	+0	Yes	$-0	05-05 14:06
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	12	$31	22	22	+0	open	—	04-11 13:07
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	10	$31	47	47	+0	open	—	04-25 01:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 23:09:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xdcd42f…
05-06 22:47:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	48¢	$4	0xa4bb4f…
05-06 22:47:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	7	59¢	$4	0x8416f5…
05-06 20:32:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x7ed9a1…
05-06 20:26:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0x83327e…
05-06 17:43:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x5b868a…
05-06 15:08:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x5e4368…
05-06 14:45:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x041ef6…
05-06 14:45:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x684ad0…
05-06 13:36:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	49¢	$4	0x101ab9…
05-06 13:14:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xa99084…
05-06 12:24:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x26f678…
05-06 04:15:10	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	14	39¢	$5	0x82b660…
05-06 04:10:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x77e555…
05-06 01:22:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0x33a511…
05-05 22:55:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	7	62¢	$4	0x609907…
05-05 22:00:30	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0xb2393d…
05-05 21:31:26	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	10	53¢	$6	0x42f71a…
05-05 20:56:04	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0x56fe55…
05-05 20:10:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x8f998b…
05-05 20:10:20	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x487e86…
05-05 18:23:10	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	14	42¢	$6	0x943512…
05-05 17:49:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x4ac8da…
05-05 17:39:24	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	8	55¢	$5	0x866474…
05-05 17:22:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x8bfb0a…
05-05 17:18:26	Will Drake feature Lil Baby on ICEMAN?	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0xc2a746…
05-05 14:06:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x48adc9…
05-05 14:04:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	SELL	12	45¢	$6	0xc17cd3…
05-05 14:00:28	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xa8370a…
05-05 13:45:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	68¢	$5	0x4171dd…
05-05 13:29:18	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xec0f04…
05-05 12:39:58	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	8	68¢	$6	0x36fb17…
05-05 11:54:12	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	SELL	8	70¢	$5	0xf5a1f3…
05-05 11:21:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	9	56¢	$5	0x962219…
05-05 10:58:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb9d447…
05-05 09:39:22	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x50f0d0…
05-05 09:10:38	Will Drake feature Lil Baby on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x84f595…
05-05 09:07:56	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xf58a40…
05-05 06:04:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	BUY	12	46¢	$6	0xac4f1d…
05-05 06:03:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x0db53e…
05-05 05:59:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0xd61f0b…
05-05 05:43:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$5	0xcab95a…
05-05 04:32:00	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0x18fde4…
05-05 04:27:08	Will Drake feature Julia Wolf on ICEMAN?	No	SELL	12	16¢	$2	0xeb2db8…
05-05 04:07:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	9	48¢	$4	0x7085cc…
05-05 03:46:06	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x332d90…
05-05 01:13:22	Will Kim Kardashian be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xeb750b…
05-05 01:01:52	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x9d1f9e…
05-05 00:28:40	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	16	15¢	$2	0x78ff5e…
05-05 00:25:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xf698cf…
05-04 23:31:04	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xce0f2e…
05-04 22:14:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x12ea37…
05-04 20:20:16	Will Drake feature Julia Wolf on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x21af0e…
05-04 20:03:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x7cc3d9…
05-04 20:01:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x9909c4…
05-04 19:24:14	Will Sabrina Carpenter be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0xf86d30…
05-04 18:09:34	Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xc8acef…
05-04 17:40:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	7	65¢	$4	0x681b08…
05-04 16:23:20	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	16	26¢	$4	0xea4d46…
05-04 16:16:08	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?	No	SELL	22	25¢	$5	0xf34fde…
05-04 15:25:26	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xe29adb…
05-04 13:41:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	11	48¢	$5	0x0858c2…
05-04 11:59:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0xe5d4cc…
05-04 11:37:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x73fff2…
05-04 11:23:52	Will Sabrina Carpenter be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8d651b…
05-04 10:08:32	Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xd937f4…
05-04 10:08:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xf50c4e…
05-04 08:11:32	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?	No	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0xa5192c…
05-04 07:45:16	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0x28ee31…
05-04 05:41:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x910d43…
05-04 05:37:20	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x8b50a2…
05-04 04:06:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	11	56¢	$6	0xc61b57…
05-04 04:04:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xce0847…
05-04 01:28:54	Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0xd994ba…
05-04 01:10:36	Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0xf09249…
05-04 00:14:16	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	No	SELL	19	17¢	$3	0xd4857d…
05-04 00:09:42	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	No	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0x90a956…
05-04 00:08:22	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	No	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0xba029e…
05-03 23:44:52	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x416001…
05-03 23:18:08	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x712984…
05-03 23:08:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	56¢	$5	0xf34a8d…
05-03 22:52:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x690c55…
05-03 21:39:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	9	60¢	$6	0x9e7553…
05-03 21:35:04	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xe993b3…
05-03 21:17:00	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	24	26¢	$6	0xaa53f0…
05-03 20:54:22	Will Grab Holdings (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0xbddc84…
05-03 20:19:28	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xac3440…
05-03 20:06:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x932e78…
05-03 20:04:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x988b1b…
05-03 17:27:24	Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x89630a…
05-03 17:10:36	Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xf6254c…
05-03 17:08:20	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	No	SELL	13	42¢	$6	0xbb1fe5…
05-03 16:35:12	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	11	65¢	$7	0xc5c606…
05-03 16:14:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	58¢	$4	0x499f9a…
05-03 16:00:24	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	15	18¢	$3	0x6c10e6…
05-03 15:16:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xc3ead8…
05-03 15:16:00	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x66b44e…
05-03 15:01:30	Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	No	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0x25f664…
05-03 13:39:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0xd326e7…
05-03 13:15:04	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	24	27¢	$6	0xb36f4f…