Probable-Site — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.47K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.4%

Resolved

124

Trades

107,725

lifetime

Volume

$2.67M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-10 06:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

72% 31% $-3,061

Sports

14% 47% $-412

Politics

11% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 1113 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	821	$66.3K	79,615	79,572	+44	open	—	03-24 05:08
another us government shutdown by february 14	973	$40.6K	70,509	68,759	+1,750	open	—	02-14 13:03
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	1,502	$40.5K	47,114	46,468	+645	open	—	04-28 09:31
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	561	$27.3K	32,528	31,566	+962	Yes	+$745	05-12 12:32
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 100m and 125m views in its first 7 days	777	$22.7K	30,676	30,184	+492	open	—	02-16 03:57
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 440 459	976	$22.7K	35,780	33,941	+1,839	open	—	01-23 07:16
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 75m and 100m views in its first 7 days	925	$21.0K	23,652	22,741	+911	open	—	02-16 04:53
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 460 479	937	$19.3K	24,054	23,702	+352	open	—	01-23 16:18
will player 167 win beast games season 2 763	561	$17.9K	14,417	13,970	+447	open	—	02-25 08:00
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	564	$16.7K	22,442	22,090	+352	open	—	02-28 06:13
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	737	$16.1K	46,737	44,852	+1,885	open	—	03-02 01:36
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 400 419	714	$15.9K	21,324	20,078	+1,246	open	—	01-23 00:20
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	567	$15.8K	14,378	14,483	-105	open	—	06-30 20:35
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 500 519	690	$15.7K	24,787	23,601	+1,187	open	—	01-23 16:18
usisrael strike yemen by march 31	419	$15.6K	20,551	19,694	+856	open	—	04-03 01:07
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 480 499	631	$15.5K	19,364	19,199	+164	open	—	01-23 16:13
us strikes iraq by march 7	277	$15.0K	20,716	19,019	+1,697	open	—	03-09 00:37
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	264	$14.8K	21,494	21,038	+455	open	—	03-31 17:51
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 380 399	609	$14.5K	21,659	19,932	+1,727	open	—	01-22 18:44
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 420 439	479	$13.0K	19,498	17,659	+1,839	open	—	01-23 02:14
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	268	$12.6K	16,957	15,064	+1,893	open	—	01-16 02:03
us strike on somalia by january 31 338	162	$11.1K	10,908	9,903	+1,005	open	—	01-23 17:28
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	719	$10.9K	44,233	43,073	+1,160	open	—	03-01 01:12
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	654	$10.7K	27,837	27,771	+66	open	—	04-28 02:19
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 360 379	375	$8.9K	13,517	12,410	+1,107	open	—	01-22 14:50
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	564	$8.6K	19,266	19,264	+2	open	—	04-27 20:30
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	626	$8.4K	22,438	22,128	+310	open	—	04-27 13:33
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	516	$8.1K	22,755	22,401	+354	open	—	04-27 23:02
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	265	$7.8K	11,496	10,730	+766	open	—	01-30 12:06
will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	141	$7.5K	9,514	8,878	+636	open	—	02-28 14:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 11:01:49	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	29	49¢	$14	0x3cbbe4…
08-10 10:49:18	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507	No	BUY	42	34¢	$14	0x4dcad2…
08-10 10:29:57	hims quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 neg0pt05	Yes	SELL	42	41¢	$17	0x2ce89a…
08-10 10:21:33	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	BUY	299	34¢	$102	0x38c226…
08-10 10:05:33	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	SELL	299	38¢	$114	0x62c954…
08-10 09:47:00	Record crypto liquidation in 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	10¢	$11	0xfe3ef9…
08-10 09:41:31	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	SELL	48	3¢	$1	0x3f4b25…
08-10 09:17:52	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xfd9856…
08-10 09:02:58	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0x622881…
08-10 08:15:40	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x360aac…
08-10 08:15:34	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x11dfe1…
08-10 08:15:33	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x928763…
08-10 08:15:33	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x2dfcd3…
08-10 07:09:00	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xc983ee…
08-10 06:56:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	25	74¢	$18	0xcd8ad3…
08-10 06:56:03	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	142	74¢	$105	0xba618e…
08-10 06:29:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xb927df…
08-10 06:10:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x4adeb8…
08-10 05:47:19	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x94f3a8…
08-10 05:47:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	38	14¢	$5	0x8dd20a…
08-10 05:47:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0x83f55c…
08-10 05:46:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x0d4472…
08-10 05:46:55	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x8d6bd6…
08-10 05:46:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	5	92¢	$4	0x4ba758…
08-10 05:46:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x3ebb54…
08-10 05:38:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	299	2¢	$6	0xc4737c…
08-10 05:33:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	36	15¢	$5	0xe9a025…
08-10 05:33:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	296	5¢	$16	0xce9c06…
08-10 05:25:39	will kai or speed die to a ghast 20260806175301189	No	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x545ef5…
08-10 05:17:43	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 15	Yes	SELL	62	11¢	$7	0xd7d363…
08-10 05:11:03	kbo lot sam 2026 07 17	Lotte Giants	SELL	113	74¢	$84	0x3500fc…
08-10 04:58:12	will kai or speed die to a piglin 20260808122806768	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$5	0x7ca8e2…
08-10 04:03:04	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x6fc5c6…
08-10 04:01:19	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	SELL	52	3¢	$2	0x5bc50d…
08-10 03:51:45	will kai or speed die to a ghast 20260806175301189	No	BUY	5	76¢	$3	0x5440de…
08-10 03:41:03	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xef56a1…
08-10 03:22:30	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	No	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x837736…
08-10 03:09:24	hims quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 neg0pt05	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x28421f…
08-10 02:23:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	210	86¢	$181	0xe21223…
08-10 01:35:36	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	90	89¢	$80	0xa46d6f…
08-10 01:33:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xd2573f…
08-10 00:23:33	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	Yes	BUY	19	63¢	$12	0xf7797e…
08-09 23:11:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 11 20260807213124700	Yes	SELL	51	1¢	$1	0xf1ebaf…
08-09 21:28:18	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	BUY	79	26¢	$21	0xbb87d5…
08-09 20:46:04	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xe855e4…
08-09 20:46:04	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x961f76…
08-09 20:46:04	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x1cf66f…
08-09 20:45:03	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	270	3¢	$8	0x82a7cb…
08-09 20:32:45	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0xd6cebf…
08-09 20:32:45	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x8fac30…
08-09 19:56:27	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xbc8e7c…
08-09 19:56:27	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xa928c8…
08-09 19:56:25	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x26dd20…
08-09 19:54:00	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x9f4b5f…
08-09 19:54:00	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x6bb135…
08-09 19:40:06	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	No	BUY	33	50¢	$17	0xe6a70e…
08-09 19:39:09	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	No	BUY	34	50¢	$17	0xacf1f5…
08-09 19:22:12	will kai or speed die to a blaze 20260806175301188	No	BUY	55	38¢	$21	0xee4249…
08-09 19:09:22	will kai or speed die to a zombified piglin 20260808122802239	No	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0xc915f2…
08-09 19:07:52	will kai or speed die to a zombified piglin 20260808122802239	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xdc3dc3…
08-09 19:05:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	BUY	106	6¢	$6	0xbfbdc6…
08-09 18:48:24	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	SELL	79	51¢	$40	0xe148b5…
08-09 17:49:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	26	11¢	$3	0x66a1c1…
08-09 17:28:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x2169ab…
08-09 17:11:18	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	16	70¢	$11	0xcc5e47…
08-09 17:00:46	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	No	SELL	35	53¢	$19	0xf5c5e7…
08-09 17:00:45	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	BUY	76	48¢	$37	0x77aae3…
08-09 17:00:28	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	BUY	223	48¢	$107	0xf751d2…
08-09 16:51:37	hims quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 neg0pt05	Yes	SELL	40	43¢	$17	0x212402…
08-09 16:50:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	424	93¢	$394	0xf8c652…
08-09 16:36:57	will kai or speed die to a ghast 20260806175301189	No	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xa5e230…
08-09 15:28:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	BUY	168	94¢	$158	0x4e47a3…
08-09 14:13:10	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	No	SELL	647	46¢	$298	0x460a9e…
08-09 14:04:21	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	Yes	SELL	39	40¢	$16	0xf9d69f…
08-09 13:36:34	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	Yes	SELL	260	40¢	$104	0x27c774…
08-09 12:28:48	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	No	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0xc117f2…
08-09 12:27:52	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	No	SELL	16	43¢	$7	0x31059a…
08-09 11:01:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	299	85¢	$254	0x313c82…
08-09 10:54:34	hims quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 neg0pt05	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x70e910…
08-09 10:50:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0xf223a6…
08-09 10:50:19	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	No	SELL	173	97¢	$168	0x84f165…
08-09 10:18:36	hims quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 neg0pt05	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0x06fe39…
08-09 10:07:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x94a634…
08-09 09:40:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$8	0x4d68ca…
08-09 08:50:55	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	No	SELL	87	96¢	$83	0x1c2d32…
08-09 07:18:22	will the next claude opus model debut with a humanitys last exam score of 55 or higher 20260723184439897	No	SELL	438	99¢	$435	0x2563ac…
08-09 06:39:55	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	SELL	257	98¢	$251	0x196049…
08-09 06:35:49	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	No	BUY	49	53¢	$26	0xcadd87…
08-09 05:43:09	kbo lot sam 2026 07 17	Lotte Giants	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x7b2c4f…
08-09 05:35:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	SELL	279	94¢	$263	0x3458a1…
08-09 05:14:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	SELL	254	94¢	$239	0x7ef22d…
08-09 05:05:30	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	129	47¢	$61	0xa98708…
08-09 03:42:51	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	No	SELL	120	74¢	$89	0x1fad43…
08-09 02:01:01	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0x30bd69…
08-09 02:00:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	297	84¢	$249	0xb70032…
08-09 02:00:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	SELL	255	14¢	$36	0x144195…
08-09 00:36:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0xe5759e…
08-09 00:18:39	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507	No	BUY	175	12¢	$21	0xbee7d0…
08-09 00:18:33	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507	No	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0xa42b27…
08-09 00:04:36	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	No	BUY	281	55¢	$155	0xc1dd09…