Realized P&L
+$4.20K
Unrealized P&L
+$409
Hit rate
47.5%
Resolved
2,017
Trades
31,300
lifetime
Volume
$341.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$4.83K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 10-31 17:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 205 days
Categories
Other
66% 36% +$6,503
Politics
24% 39% -$1,108
Tech
7% 38% -$850
Pop-Culture
3% 25% -$317
Crypto
1% 50% -$9
Sports
0% 0% -$15
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
15 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +555 $372 99¢ $547 +$175 05-20 20:53
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No +322 $225 93¢ $299 +$75 05-19 00:15
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No -297 -$128 94¢ $-278 -$150 05-15 17:23
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No -221 -$135 97¢ $-214 -$79 05-01 06:16
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +213 $203 99¢ $211 +$8 05-13 08:12
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? No -214 -$167 98¢ $-210 -$44 05-31 17:41
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No +205 $190 99¢ $204 +$14 05-21 02:05
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +180 $180 100¢ $180 +$0 05-21 14:34
New pandemic in 2026? No +181 $161 98¢ $179 +$17 05-07 05:10
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No +173 $133 98¢ $171 +$37 06-06 18:50
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +238 $145 68¢ $161 +$16 05-31 06:02
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes +236 $58 68¢ $160 +$102 05-28 22:03
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No -160 -$144 97¢ $-155 -$11 05-14 09:35
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No +149 $125 97¢ $145 +$20 05-30 23:58
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +156 $127 84¢ $130 +$4 06-01 03:22
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +140 $89 90¢ $127 +$38 05-29 17:48
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +127 $31 92¢ $117 +$86 05-28 07:26
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +121 $109 97¢ $117 +$8 05-31 13:56
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +123 $103 95¢ $116 +$14 06-06 20:28
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +120 $114 96¢ $115 +$1 05-31 17:27
will magicblock launch a token by december 31 2026 No +120 $50 94¢ $113 +$64 06-04 16:33
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes +140 $88 77¢ $108 +$20 05-29 20:05
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +107 $97 95¢ $102 +$5 05-19 00:01
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797 Yes +125 $93 79¢ $99 +$5 06-14 11:34
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -100 -$92 98¢ $-98 -$6 05-01 07:38
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No +100 $89 98¢ $98 +$10 05-28 17:24
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No -100 -$87 98¢ $-98 -$11 05-03 09:52
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +100 $74 97¢ $97 +$22 06-02 06:19
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -99 -$82 95¢ $-95 -$12 05-15 13:56
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No -92 -$70 95¢ $-88 -$18 05-13 21:48