Realized P&L
-$21.6K
Unrealized P&L
—
Hit rate
68.6%
Resolved
181
Trades
7,810
lifetime
Volume
$1.29M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$166
Open exposure
—
0 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 04-30 22:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 46 days
Categories
Politics
84%
49%
-$39,348
Other
16%
38%
+$17,967
Crypto
0%
63%
-$184
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-04-30).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound. | ||||||||
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 318 | $171.7K | 155,234 | 158,539 | -3,305 | No | +$2,050 | 03-30 17:35 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 54 | $160.5K | 116,938 | 116,938 | +0 | Yes | -$29,787 | 04-07 23:15 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 102 | $153.9K | 98,518 | 104,486 | -5,968 | No | +$9,989 | 03-30 15:53 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 30 | 36 | $114.3K | 97,911 | 97,911 | +0 | Yes | -$18,699 | 04-07 23:16 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 225 | $107.1K | 101,937 | 102,403 | -466 | Yes | +$11,596 | 04-03 18:41 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | 186 | $93.8K | 90,276 | 87,934 | +2,341 | Yes | +$1,028 | 04-01 18:37 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 546 | $89.9K | 142,417 | 130,308 | +12,110 | Yes | +$20,352 | 02-02 20:02 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 62 | $54.8K | 99,589 | 100,320 | -731 | No | +$9,595 | 04-17 13:34 |
| iran leadership change by march 31 | 60 | $47.2K | 31,478 | 31,478 | +0 | No | +$1,493 | 03-19 22:57 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 29 | $28.8K | 14,912 | 14,912 | +0 | Yes | -$476 | 02-10 04:20 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 28 | $23.0K | 20,000 | 25,000 | -5,000 | Yes | +$3,639 | 03-10 13:59 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 15 | 30 | $20.8K | 27,957 | 27,957 | +0 | No | +$1,885 | 03-09 22:11 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 34 | $20.7K | 14,101 | 16,599 | -2,498 | Yes | +$2,863 | 03-03 22:58 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | 69 | $18.6K | 120,957 | 120,957 | +0 | No | -$4,908 | 03-30 15:22 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 38 | $16.9K | 39,756 | 43,280 | -3,524 | Yes | -$4,846 | 02-26 19:00 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | 1,869 | $15.7K | 2,567,645 | 595,746 | +1,971,899 | No | -$9,713 | 03-04 16:14 |
| us forces enter iran by march 14 337 | 23 | $14.5K | 15,843 | 0 | +15,843 | No | +$1,305 | 03-13 21:04 |
| will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et | 95 | $12.9K | 12,137 | 11,692 | +445 | Yes | +$10,718 | 02-28 11:22 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 31 | $12.2K | 54,832 | 54,832 | +0 | Yes | +$901 | 04-06 12:19 |
| will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365 | 79 | $11.1K | 12,194 | 12,353 | -159 | No | +$2,967 | 04-21 22:17 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15 | 77 | $10.2K | 89,079 | 89,079 | +0 | No | -$2,864 | 04-07 23:16 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 77 | $8.0K | 39,817 | 37,237 | +2,580 | No | +$164 | 04-24 16:17 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026 | 4 | $7.4K | 6,503 | 8,813 | -2,309 | No | +$1,415 | 04-15 17:53 |
| will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by february 6 2026 681 | 21 | $7.3K | 9,395 | 0 | +9,395 | Yes | +$2,134 | 01-29 22:13 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | 42 | $6.8K | 29,649 | 3,673 | +25,977 | No | +$715 | 02-11 01:14 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026 | 125 | $6.8K | 75,265 | 6,662 | +68,603 | No | -$6,679 | 04-22 00:43 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? | 2 | $6.1K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | Yes | -$5,905 | 04-07 23:16 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 26 | $5.5K | 9,159 | 9,159 | +0 | No | +$13 | 03-30 15:20 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | 2 | $5.5K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | Yes | -$5,137 | 04-07 23:16 |
| another us government shutdown by february 14 | 36 | $5.5K | 3,413 | 3,413 | +0 | No | +$313 | 02-14 04:08 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||