Wet-Event — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

11,587

Trades

38,996

lifetime

Volume

$327.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$426

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 00:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 299 days

Categories

Other

71% 40% -$12,650

Politics

14% 43% -$1,779

Sports

11% 42% -$2,820

Tech

2% 40% -$161

Crypto

1% 32% -$369

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$67

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 444 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	-30	-$26	97¢	$-29	-$3	06-16 09:39
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	No	-20	-$19	99¢	$-20	-$1	06-12 15:24
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	-20	-$19	98¢	$-20	$0	05-24 16:47
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	-20	-$19	98¢	$-20	-$1	06-13 09:37
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	No	-20	-$18	98¢	$-20	-$2	06-13 09:37
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	No	-20	-$17	97¢	$-19	-$2	06-16 09:39
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	-20	-$17	97¢	$-19	-$2	06-14 17:24
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	-20	-$16	97¢	$-19	-$3	06-16 09:39
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	-20	-$19	96¢	$-19	$0	06-12 15:25
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	-20	-$17	95¢	$-19	-$2	06-27 17:21
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	No	-20	-$16	92¢	$-18	-$2	06-25 18:38
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	-20	-$14	92¢	$-18	-$4	06-29 16:43
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	-20	-$17	88¢	$-18	-$1	06-25 18:24
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	-20	-$15	82¢	$-16	-$1	07-02 17:00
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+16	$6	98¢	$16	+$10	08-07 00:45
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No	+20	$14	78¢	$16	+$2	10-01 19:03
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	-20	-$16	68¢	$-14	+$2	08-18 17:19
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	-15	-$9	80¢	$-12	-$3	07-02 17:07
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	-20	-$18	58¢	$-12	+$6	06-13 12:49
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	+20	$5	52¢	$10	+$6	08-15 00:06
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	+20	$12	50¢	$10	-$2	10-20 19:12
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	+20	$9	50¢	$10	+$1	10-20 23:29
will openai announce another millennium prize solution by december 31 2027	No	+20	$9	45¢	$9	+$0	09-10 06:22
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	No	-10	-$7	94¢	$-9	-$2	06-26 05:45
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	+20	$6	36¢	$7	+$1	06-24 21:42
will steve witkoff attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 2	Yes	+20	$14	32¢	$6	-$8	10-02 03:05
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	-7	-$6	82¢	$-6	$0	06-25 18:38
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	+40	$19	13¢	$5	-$14	05-12 17:00
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	Yes	+20	$6	22¢	$4	-$2	10-01 23:07
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	-20	-$12	22¢	$-4	+$7	06-26 18:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	53	$380	380	360	+20	No	+$4	07-17 21:43
iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	28	$271	280	260	+20	Yes	+$3	07-13 18:51
iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	27	$265	240	220	+20	No	+$2	07-19 07:11
UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	3	$248	500	0	+500	Alexander Volkanovski	+$252	10-24 20:49
UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	2	$246	600	0	+600	Petr Yan	-$246	10-24 15:44
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?	37	$245	280	260	+20	Yes	+$1	06-24 18:19
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	51	$242	280	212	+68	No	+$31	04-28 04:37
will cd win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	18	$236	220	200	+20	No	-$5	03-19 11:24
will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 273	36	$233	265	225	+40	Yes	-$6	03-26 19:22
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	23	$229	245	197	+49	No	+$7	05-31 14:58
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$221	124	124	+0	No	+$25	06-07 13:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$217	120	120	+0	No	+$6	05-20 16:28
Will valve announce no hero as the new hero at The International 2026?	20	$211	220	200	+20	Yes	+$1	08-21 06:06
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	29	$211	240	200	+40	open	—	10-27 21:31
cbb missr mia 2026 03 20	1	$202	440	0	+440	Miami Hurricanes	-$202	03-20 15:53
nhl cal bos 2026 01 08 total 6pt5	2	$201	410	0	+410	Under	+$209	01-08 16:31
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale?	26	$198	220	200	+20	Yes	-$10	01-15 04:51
iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	33	$198	240	200	+40	No	-$2	07-19 22:14
will the dhs shutdown last 52 days or more 416	25	$189	220	180	+40	Yes	+$3	03-30 11:05
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	19	$182	180	160	+20	Yes	+$5	10-13 16:50
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	23	$182	220	180	+40	No	+$4	01-17 18:29
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	18	$182	180	160	+20	Yes	+$8	05-09 17:04
Will There be 10+ Knife Kills at CS2 EWC 2026?	24	$178	180	160	+20	Yes	+$1	08-23 16:44
will mrbeasts next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1 287	19	$171	200	180	+20	No	+$3	03-26 19:30
Will There be 7-9 Knife Kills at CS2 EWC 2026?	16	$171	160	140	+20	No	+$4	08-23 16:43
will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 27	19	$168	188	148	+40	No	+$6	03-27 13:55
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	21	$167	160	140	+20	Yes	-$11	09-01 08:29
iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	19	$165	160	140	+20	Yes	-$7	07-18 18:48
iran full airspace closure by august 15	25	$164	187	147	+40	No	-$8	08-02 14:40
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	25	$164	202	162	+40	No	-$1	05-04 11:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 02:19:24	Will Anthropic raise between $115B and $125B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xeeba29…
10-28 00:39:57	Will Anthropic raise less than $65B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xe387b6…
10-27 23:23:27	Will Anthropic raise between $85B and $95B in its IPO?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xb8c5b7…
10-27 22:59:30	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x088aa7…
10-27 22:58:06	Will Anthropic raise between $115B and $125B in its IPO?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x563d58…
10-27 21:53:08	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x78bd8b…
10-27 21:42:08	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x377dac…
10-27 21:38:29	Will Anthropic raise at least $135B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x52a882…
10-27 21:31:26	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x77d10e…
10-27 21:31:26	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	No	SELL	40	30¢	$12	0x77d10e…
10-27 21:25:06	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0x70f375…
10-27 21:19:56	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xd7cb26…
10-27 21:04:26	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x95db74…
10-27 20:51:21	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x0fa1a2…
10-27 20:43:45	Will Anthropic raise at least $135B in its IPO?	No	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x148451…
10-27 20:43:00	Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x2c91fb…
10-27 20:07:36	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xa10ca3…
10-27 20:05:14	Will voter turnout be 76% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x320c25…
10-27 20:04:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x03af2c…
10-27 20:03:48	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x590a01…
10-27 20:03:47	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xb5fca2…
10-27 20:02:42	Will voter turnout be 76% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xedcb51…
10-27 20:01:47	Will RZP-Zehut win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	13	27¢	$3	0xbb2beb…
10-27 20:01:47	Will RZP-Zehut win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x7d35da…
10-27 20:00:51	Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	17	21¢	$4	0xa62ba4…
10-27 20:00:51	Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0x357251…
10-27 19:59:35	Will RZP-Zehut win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xcac7fa…
10-27 19:51:36	Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x2e651f…
10-27 19:48:18	Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x5321dd…
10-27 19:40:50	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xebebb4…
10-27 19:37:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x2155a4…
10-27 19:32:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x2d6fc3…
10-27 19:30:47	Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x912bf5…
10-27 19:30:26	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x4bbe26…
10-27 19:29:33	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xef2a99…
10-27 19:29:33	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x2a4aa8…
10-27 19:27:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x554f19…
10-27 19:27:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0x1416e5…
10-27 19:26:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x142cac…
10-27 19:25:20	Will Anthropic raise at least $135B in its IPO?	No	BUY	13	88¢	$12	0xfd79f0…
10-27 19:19:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xbff37b…
10-27 15:53:48	Will Soneium launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x6c7089…
10-27 11:21:12	CISA emergency directive issued by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x18488b…
10-27 11:07:41	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	19	45¢	$9	0x5ab9dd…
10-27 08:28:57	CISA emergency directive issued by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x9dbbf6…
10-27 01:54:54	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xe52387…
10-27 00:57:12	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xcc0b75…
10-27 00:34:32	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xf00ed9…
10-27 00:03:12	Will Soneium launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xd55025…
10-26 20:57:41	Will Soneium launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x76fb35…
10-26 20:46:59	Will Soneium launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x2ea6d2…
10-26 20:46:59	Will Soneium launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x1f5146…
10-26 19:55:23	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 26?	No	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x92f7c0…
10-26 19:55:23	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 26?	No	BUY	16	4¢	$1	0x527f0c…
10-26 19:52:54	CISA emergency directive issued by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x620a13…
10-26 19:40:29	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xbdfdfb…
10-26 19:35:08	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x6cab51…
10-26 12:59:57	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 10.5% to 11.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x456c6a…
10-26 11:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x1c2886…
10-26 03:21:35	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x396438…
10-26 02:12:42	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 27?	No	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0xd28674…
10-26 02:12:20	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 27?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x3257be…
10-26 01:24:02	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x58f12a…
10-25 23:41:09	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x92a00c…
10-25 23:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xde33f0…
10-25 23:30:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xcfe3a8…
10-25 23:04:20	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	47¢	$1	0x509d66…
10-25 23:04:17	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xcbfb21…
10-25 23:04:17	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x19010e…
10-25 23:04:14	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x00d82f…
10-25 20:12:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 25?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xcbe01d…
10-25 20:06:21	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x377d41…
10-25 19:08:20	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0xaafa0c…
10-25 19:03:09	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x6b09fa…
10-25 19:01:47	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x88b52b…
10-25 18:59:59	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 25?	Yes	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0x3df10e…
10-25 18:59:00	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 25?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1c68af…
10-25 18:58:15	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	48¢	$1	0x71fa71…
10-25 18:57:39	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 25?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x503fd1…
10-25 18:46:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x5d66cc…
10-25 18:44:32	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x1185ea…
10-25 09:17:27	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x4645c5…
10-25 08:42:48	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x748fde…
10-25 02:00:47	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	13	71¢	$9	0xd85ebd…
10-25 02:00:47	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 25?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xd85ebd…
10-25 01:39:33	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x665bee…
10-25 00:51:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 25?	No	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0xedb6ab…
10-25 00:51:08	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x030342…
10-25 00:51:08	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 25?	No	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0x030342…
10-25 00:25:20	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of São Paulo?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xf68a9d…
10-25 00:22:02	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x0cdf4f…
10-24 23:54:14	Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xa68188…
10-24 20:49:06	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Alexander Volkanovski	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x642985…
10-24 20:43:54	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Alexander Volkanovski	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x160561…
10-24 16:03:59	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x979825…
10-24 16:03:53	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xa0f240…
10-24 16:03:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	16	83¢	$13	0xf57889…
10-24 16:03:26	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xd95fcf…
10-24 16:03:21	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x0a0f75…
10-24 16:03:15	Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x5c58a4…