Fair-Apology-Bucket — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$99

Unrealized P&L

+$169

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

263

lifetime

Volume

$24.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

$1.06K

1 position

First seen

2026-04-17

last 07-20 03:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

60% 0% $-62

Politics

34% 0% $-36

Crypto

5% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No		+4,004	$892	26¢	$1.1K	+$169	07-20 03:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	8	$3.1K	2,721	3,467	-747	open	—	06-13 22:12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$2.9K	2,048	2,048	+0	open	—	06-20 01:33
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	4	$2.5K	1,902	1,902	+0	open	—	05-30 03:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	8	$2.1K	2,364	1,775	+589	open	—	06-13 10:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$1.6K	1,959	1,959	+0	open	—	06-18 01:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$1.4K	0	1,738	-1,738	open	—	05-28 13:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	9	$1.4K	0	2,233	-2,233	open	—	05-30 11:51
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	8	$1.3K	3,796	3,630	+166	open	—	06-20 01:32
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	52	$1.2K	3,705	1,033	+2,673	open	—	05-17 12:04
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	10	$1.2K	119,112	0	+119,112	open	—	06-01 12:03
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	14	$973	2,655	141	+2,514	open	—	05-24 12:03
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	1	$892	4,004	0	+4,004	open	—	07-20 03:52
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	5	$658	2,212	0	+2,212	open	—	05-15 02:52
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	5	$648	1,663	0	+1,663	open	—	07-01 14:48
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	5	$492	0	1,372	-1,372	open	—	05-28 13:35
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	3	$480	625	607	+18	open	—	05-25 09:52
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?	3	$289	582	547	+35	open	—	05-25 09:51
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	5	$232	564	564	+0	open	—	04-28 09:51
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$104	384	384	+0	open	—	04-28 10:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$100	400	0	+400	open	—	04-25 12:27
will argentina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134503	1	$100	145	0	+145	open	—	06-26 00:29
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	1	$100	135	0	+135	open	—	07-09 21:46
fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	1	$100	149	0	+149	open	—	07-04 13:34
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	1	$100	114	0	+114	open	—	07-12 01:24
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	34	$85	0	211	-211	open	—	05-30 13:49
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	5	$79	0	190	-190	open	—	06-01 19:12
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	1	$52	200	0	+200	open	—	04-25 12:27
Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	1	$50	250	0	+250	Yes	$-50	04-23 03:39
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$50	208	0	+208	open	—	07-04 13:23
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?	4	$40	229	229	+0	open	—	04-29 05:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 03:52:13	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	4,004	22¢	$892	0x18a17f…
07-12 01:24:46	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x230f72…
07-09 21:46:34	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x62229d…
07-04 13:34:04	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Spain	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x5f7f72…
07-04 13:23:49	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x30df69…
07-01 14:48:20	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	246	43¢	$105	0x67bd57…
07-01 14:24:55	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	53	42¢	$23	0x926357…
07-01 14:24:23	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	114	40¢	$46	0x388fda…
07-01 14:23:53	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	689	39¢	$268	0x15593c…
07-01 14:23:22	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	561	37¢	$206	0x155fc3…
06-26 00:29:20	will argentina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134503	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x712bdf…
06-20 01:33:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	2,048	94¢	$1,925	0x385a87…
06-20 01:32:47	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1,821	7¢	$136	0xd1ebd1…
06-18 01:00:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,959	45¢	$884	0xdde7fd…
06-18 01:00:08	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1,810	6¢	$102	0x7e48b9…
06-17 14:48:44	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2,048	48¢	$975	0x938668…
06-17 14:48:43	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1,352	22¢	$292	0xee2853…
06-15 23:09:07	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	701	34¢	$236	0xbc9af6…
06-15 23:08:36	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	128	32¢	$41	0x097055…
06-15 23:08:06	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1,246	31¢	$384	0x6ad2d8…
06-15 23:07:34	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	145	28¢	$41	0xc89cf1…
06-15 23:07:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,959	37¢	$725	0xa02a13…
06-15 23:07:03	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	225	26¢	$59	0xd42f67…
06-13 22:12:09	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	SELL	866	72¢	$619	0xbf2018…
06-13 13:31:43	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	SELL	234	71¢	$167	0x991a1b…
06-13 10:07:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	364	47¢	$170	0x1aae85…
06-13 09:58:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	2,000	46¢	$920	0x289705…
06-10 14:28:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	355	69¢	$245	0xcf4dae…
06-01 19:12:55	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0xeea4fe…
06-01 12:04:10	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	1,889	25¢	$471	0x683a84…
06-01 12:03:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26,743	1¢	$207	0xbee5ca…
06-01 12:03:38	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	432	24¢	$104	0x1bef22…
06-01 12:03:07	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	400	24¢	$94	0xbb7486…
06-01 12:03:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90,256	0¢	$304	0x553f28…
05-31 11:50:40	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	SELL	57	44¢	$25	0x321b59…
05-31 10:53:04	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	SELL	19	42¢	$8	0x141522…
05-30 16:57:05	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	SELL	57	41¢	$23	0x115738…
05-30 13:49:32	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0xd0ea52…
05-30 13:49:30	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x90957d…
05-30 13:49:08	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x9e92c0…
05-30 13:37:59	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	11	41¢	$5	0x49caf8…
05-30 13:36:32	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x7e3b8b…
05-30 13:36:28	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xeb1964…
05-30 13:36:26	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xf627fc…
05-30 13:36:23	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xfff00c…
05-30 13:26:49	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xf2e5e2…
05-30 13:26:45	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x1ad023…
05-30 13:26:42	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xcadb83…
05-30 13:26:38	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xc7b80f…
05-30 13:26:35	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x0e737d…
05-30 13:26:33	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xd2e64d…
05-30 13:26:30	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x331adf…
05-30 12:56:32	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x7bcad6…
05-30 12:56:29	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xb65ec8…
05-30 12:56:25	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xbe2f8f…
05-30 12:56:24	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xdbab51…
05-30 12:56:22	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xff0695…
05-30 12:56:22	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x8189ed…
05-30 12:56:22	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x42234f…
05-30 12:56:22	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x284f69…
05-30 12:56:22	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x209802…
05-30 12:56:20	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xc4ff2a…
05-30 12:31:40	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	SELL	57	40¢	$23	0x9808d7…
05-30 11:51:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	192	68¢	$130	0x12be90…
05-30 11:39:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	323	52¢	$168	0x6527e9…
05-30 11:09:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	52¢	$17	0x873a00…
05-30 10:49:43	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	11	40¢	$5	0xc65593…
05-30 10:49:43	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	71	40¢	$28	0x33e5f4…
05-30 10:47:39	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0xd55328…
05-30 10:47:39	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	29	39¢	$11	0x0a0f1a…
05-30 09:46:38	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x1d5cda…
05-30 09:46:35	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x72e855…
05-30 09:46:33	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x74f2df…
05-30 09:46:29	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x498970…
05-30 09:46:28	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0xc0e758…
05-30 07:43:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	67¢	$21	0xf3c922…
05-30 07:42:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x36d32f…
05-30 07:05:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	355	51¢	$181	0xdc704f…
05-30 06:57:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	192	66¢	$126	0xdfa227…
05-30 06:57:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	191	66¢	$126	0x9e7344…
05-30 06:57:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	191	66¢	$126	0xe6488a…
05-30 06:57:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	355	50¢	$178	0x03159e…
05-30 06:57:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	355	50¢	$178	0xeac7d0…
05-30 03:52:05	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	1,902	86¢	$1,629	0x893d7e…
05-28 13:35:25	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	No	SELL	667	34¢	$230	0x48444f…
05-28 13:35:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	1,738	80¢	$1,397	0xe51bd6…
05-28 12:03:24	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	No	SELL	334	38¢	$127	0xfba991…
05-28 11:22:35	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	No	SELL	34	36¢	$12	0x888a93…
05-28 11:21:46	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	No	SELL	300	36¢	$108	0xf846d2…
05-28 11:20:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	479	58¢	$278	0x244aec…
05-28 11:20:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	478	58¢	$277	0x9ab93e…
05-28 11:20:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	478	58¢	$277	0x4446aa…
05-27 21:17:22	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	No	SELL	37	41¢	$15	0x1aba97…
05-27 12:02:32	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	1,155	46¢	$533	0x050718…
05-27 12:02:02	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	313	44¢	$138	0x8e6398…
05-27 12:01:31	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	434	44¢	$190	0xa04ba2…
05-25 09:52:07	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf87053…
05-25 09:51:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0x679171…
05-25 09:51:02	Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x634e2a…
05-24 12:03:08	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	BUY	380	52¢	$199	0x25f9fc…