Hidden-Commission — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$163

Hit rate

45.3%

Resolved

Trades

2,587

lifetime

Volume

$1.21M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$469

Open exposure

$10.9K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-07 17:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

49% 67% $-11,307

Other

47% 75% $-88

Sports

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes		-11,543	$-10,729	94¢	$-10891	$-163	06-07 17:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	40	$102.7K	63,638	40,696	+22,941	open	—	03-04 16:14
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	118	$41.4K	31,475	24,381	+7,093	open	—	01-31 00:06
us government funding lapse on january 31	57	$40.0K	40,630	1,208	+39,422	open	—	01-31 04:48
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	25	$35.9K	29,388	9,622	+19,766	open	—	04-10 18:32
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	18	$35.3K	36,438	0	+36,438	open	—	03-03 16:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$29.5K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	03-01 03:06
will trump attend ufc 327	52	$29.4K	30,707	0	+30,707	open	—	04-12 03:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	21	$26.6K	13,486	13,486	+0	open	—	03-01 05:29
will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	4	$25.7K	25,774	0	+25,774	open	—	02-03 19:00
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	35	$21.2K	0	22,757	-22,757	open	—	06-07 17:09
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	17	$20.7K	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	02-08 19:38
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$20.1K	20,853	0	+20,853	open	—	03-20 14:33
will inflation reach more than 4 in 2025	2	$18.5K	18,517	0	+18,517	open	—	01-13 13:33
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	1	$17.0K	17,036	0	+17,036	open	—	04-10 12:34
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31, 2026?	7	$16.5K	17,926	0	+17,926	open	—	03-22 20:22
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	38	$15.9K	8,747	8,747	+0	open	—	01-30 12:24
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	37	$15.3K	14,430	4,350	+10,080	open	—	05-09 04:04
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	12	$12.4K	12,883	0	+12,883	open	—	01-15 19:39
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt5 in march	1	$12.4K	12,376	0	+12,376	open	—	04-10 12:33
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	10	$12.3K	12,957	0	+12,957	open	—	03-23 13:52
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	7	$12.2K	12,433	0	+12,433	open	—	05-15 13:03
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	33	$12.0K	11,556	1,522	+10,034	Yes	$-304	05-13 13:15
weed rescheduled by march 31	24	$11.8K	12,920	1,000	+11,920	open	—	03-18 11:19
will the government shutdown last 6 days or more 888	6	$11.8K	11,294	687	+10,607	open	—	02-03 21:10
us x iran meeting by april 11 2026 678	1	$11.5K	11,536	0	+11,536	open	—	04-11 15:07
another us government shutdown by february 14	13	$11.4K	7,077	7,077	+0	open	—	02-13 20:00
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	202	$11.2K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	01-28 02:19
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	17	$11.0K	6,258	5,721	+537	open	—	02-08 19:44
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	20	$10.3K	6,520	6,520	+0	open	—	01-16 02:07
will annual inflation increase by 3pt1 in march	1	$10.2K	10,168	0	+10,168	open	—	04-10 12:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 17:09:09	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5,000	94¢	$4,700	0xd0e141…
06-07 15:38:24	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x9f13fd…
06-07 15:38:21	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x5d54fe…
06-07 15:37:54	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x9f43a9…
06-07 15:37:54	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x68c722…
06-07 15:37:54	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x37094f…
06-07 15:37:52	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0xe68877…
06-07 15:37:52	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xc0926c…
06-07 15:37:52	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x7b145d…
06-07 15:37:51	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	667	93¢	$621	0x408479…
06-07 08:40:22	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	27	93¢	$25	0x6b7866…
06-07 01:52:49	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x36cb01…
06-07 01:52:07	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xa70f3c…
06-07 01:51:57	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xefbcc8…
06-07 01:51:49	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x6a4ff8…
06-07 01:51:43	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb35ab4…
06-07 01:51:36	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xce3628…
06-07 01:51:34	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xf61877…
06-07 01:51:34	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xb3a775…
06-07 01:51:34	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	39	93¢	$36	0x4a20a0…
06-07 01:51:33	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2,683	92¢	$2,469	0x425d04…
06-06 23:49:22	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0xc0a31f…
06-06 00:37:30	will the senate pass a reconciliation bill by june 5 388	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x885d77…
06-06 00:07:22	will the senate pass a reconciliation bill by june 5 388	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5701e5…
06-05 10:18:42	will the senate pass a reconciliation bill by june 5 388	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xb96d4e…
06-01 19:47:51	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x0f9342…
06-01 19:41:31	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xffd3a7…
06-01 19:41:26	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x23da14…
06-01 19:41:24	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xf7a9b0…
06-01 19:41:24	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0xefb7d9…
06-01 19:41:23	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x6ea499…
06-01 19:41:21	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x49b9e3…
06-01 19:41:19	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x392933…
06-01 02:40:34	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x45087e…
06-01 02:40:26	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0xf5805f…
05-31 04:39:14	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0x48b6b5…
05-23 03:08:53	Trump re-sues WSJ by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x6741d0…
05-22 16:24:37	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0xeea0f5…
05-22 16:10:33	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0x58a4db…
05-22 12:56:50	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	121	98¢	$119	0x2865bc…
05-21 21:35:31	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	476	98¢	$468	0xd6af35…
05-21 18:57:17	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0x28ffd8…
05-21 18:05:38	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	No	BUY	5,431	96¢	$5,198	0x32d4ca…
05-15 14:00:25	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	150	93¢	$139	0xe41a99…
05-15 13:03:48	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x9f59a7…
05-15 12:36:41	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x1201ef…
05-15 12:34:38	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0x6f0933…
05-15 12:18:04	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	118	96¢	$113	0x648039…
05-15 12:06:22	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	9,614	99¢	$9,518	0xd561b5…
05-15 12:06:00	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	386	99¢	$382	0x58bc89…
05-15 11:49:17	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	790	99¢	$783	0x6559e1…
05-15 10:58:49	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0x828eaf…
05-15 10:55:40	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	91	96¢	$88	0xd405a5…
05-15 10:55:05	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	107	88¢	$94	0x3aec05…
05-14 23:01:32	Trump re-sues WSJ by May 31?	Yes	BUY	56	23¢	$13	0x1da02b…
05-13 13:15:51	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,782	98¢	$1,746	0x7826a3…
05-13 13:11:53	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0x17ad47…
05-13 12:45:04	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	137	98¢	$134	0x0172ec…
05-13 12:20:20	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	764	99¢	$756	0x03a5b6…
05-13 12:16:12	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5b9ad1…
05-13 11:45:47	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	425	99¢	$421	0xf7b4c6…
05-13 11:45:10	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$495	0x9eec3a…
05-13 11:42:29	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	180	99¢	$178	0x4c7cec…
05-13 05:13:27	Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,989	95¢	$1,890	0xb4c8b0…
05-13 00:56:54	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	840	99¢	$832	0x061a32…
05-13 00:53:40	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	286	99¢	$283	0x8a2039…
05-12 22:38:31	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,034	99¢	$5,005	0x25ea2f…
05-12 18:35:56	Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	737	99¢	$730	0x9bef9f…
05-12 18:35:45	Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	464	99¢	$459	0xf21b19…
05-12 18:35:37	Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	914	99¢	$903	0x801f07…
05-12 17:27:51	Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,433	96¢	$1,380	0x6f2d0c…
05-12 17:27:43	Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	516	97¢	$500	0x2b6d1e…
05-10 20:37:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,560	37¢	$577	0x27c166…
05-09 04:04:47	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	96¢	$960	0xe95825…
05-08 22:48:53	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	691	96¢	$661	0x9f81f5…
05-08 22:44:31	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0xf7cc22…
05-08 22:27:37	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	52	96¢	$49	0xe32150…
05-08 22:19:22	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	104	96¢	$100	0x8cd059…
05-08 21:35:27	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	120	96¢	$115	0x862e1a…
05-08 21:11:51	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	104	96¢	$100	0x939678…
05-08 20:35:36	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x82a2ae…
05-08 18:47:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	50¢	$1,000	0xdbb956…
05-08 17:18:31	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	566	96¢	$542	0x04ff46…
05-08 17:02:51	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,188	96¢	$1,137	0x8eff5c…
05-08 16:53:36	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x6e23b4…
05-08 16:42:47	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	106	94¢	$100	0x96c8d3…
05-08 16:33:18	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	346	94¢	$327	0x96a73b…
05-08 12:27:09	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x658ebc…
05-07 20:57:33	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	962	84¢	$808	0x1b3d42…
05-07 20:57:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x06b1d1…
05-07 20:57:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xc21310…
05-07 20:57:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xa03f12…
05-07 20:57:24	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xf122b0…
05-07 20:57:24	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x618c9c…
05-07 20:57:24	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x58a06e…
05-07 20:57:24	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x1bbcdf…
05-07 20:57:23	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xc17aa6…
05-07 20:57:23	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xa70bc5…
05-07 20:57:21	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x9b0aaf…
05-07 20:57:17	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x88d630…