Hidden-Commission — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.4K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.3%

Resolved

Trades

2,641

lifetime

Volume

$1.22M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$463

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-03 21:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

48% 67% $-11,307

Other

47% 75% $-88

Sports

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	40	$102.7K	63,638	40,696	+22,941	open	—	03-04 16:14
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	118	$41.4K	31,475	24,381	+7,093	open	—	01-31 00:06
us government funding lapse on january 31	57	$40.0K	40,630	1,208	+39,422	open	—	01-31 04:48
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	25	$35.9K	29,388	9,622	+19,766	open	—	04-10 18:32
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	18	$35.3K	36,438	0	+36,438	open	—	03-03 16:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$29.5K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	03-01 03:06
will trump attend ufc 327	52	$29.4K	30,707	0	+30,707	open	—	04-12 03:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	21	$26.6K	13,486	13,486	+0	open	—	03-01 05:29
will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	4	$25.7K	25,774	0	+25,774	open	—	02-03 19:00
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	35	$21.2K	0	22,757	-22,757	open	—	06-07 17:09
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	17	$20.7K	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	02-08 19:38
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$20.1K	20,853	0	+20,853	open	—	03-20 14:33
will inflation reach more than 4 in 2025	2	$18.5K	18,517	0	+18,517	open	—	01-13 13:33
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	1	$17.0K	17,036	0	+17,036	open	—	04-10 12:34
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31, 2026?	7	$16.5K	17,926	0	+17,926	open	—	03-22 20:22
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	38	$15.9K	8,747	8,747	+0	open	—	01-30 12:24
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	37	$15.3K	14,430	4,350	+10,080	open	—	05-09 04:04
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	12	$12.4K	12,883	0	+12,883	open	—	01-15 19:39
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt5 in march	1	$12.4K	12,376	0	+12,376	open	—	04-10 12:33
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	10	$12.3K	12,957	0	+12,957	open	—	03-23 13:52
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	7	$12.2K	12,433	0	+12,433	open	—	05-15 13:03
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	33	$12.0K	11,556	1,522	+10,034	Yes	$-304	05-13 13:15
weed rescheduled by march 31	24	$11.8K	12,920	1,000	+11,920	open	—	03-18 11:19
will the government shutdown last 6 days or more 888	6	$11.8K	11,294	687	+10,607	open	—	02-03 21:10
us x iran meeting by april 11 2026 678	1	$11.5K	11,536	0	+11,536	open	—	04-11 15:07
another us government shutdown by february 14	13	$11.4K	7,077	7,077	+0	open	—	02-13 20:00
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	202	$11.2K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	01-28 02:19
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	17	$11.0K	6,258	5,721	+537	open	—	02-08 19:44
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	20	$10.3K	6,520	6,520	+0	open	—	01-16 02:07
will annual inflation increase by 3pt1 in march	1	$10.2K	10,168	0	+10,168	open	—	04-10 12:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 21:32:29	Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	No	SELL	112	95¢	$106	0x95ec4d…
08-03 11:47:06	Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x4ccac3…
08-02 22:24:09	Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	No	SELL	282	95¢	$268	0xeb029f…
07-19 10:22:28	Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0x421902…
07-19 06:20:55	Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0xe1ba70…
07-18 22:55:34	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	SELL	378	8¢	$32	0x37a3fb…
07-18 22:36:16	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	SELL	1,183	8¢	$101	0x67655a…
07-18 21:57:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	80	45¢	$36	0xc54e63…
07-18 21:57:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	63	45¢	$28	0xb472ca…
07-18 21:57:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9042d4…
07-18 21:57:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x899736…
07-18 21:57:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	77	45¢	$35	0x59d84a…
07-18 21:57:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x3fa656…
07-18 21:57:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x26eb62…
07-18 21:57:46	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0x6d0519…
07-18 21:57:43	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	1,150	45¢	$514	0xd1e194…
07-18 21:57:43	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	206	45¢	$93	0x9342a0…
07-18 21:57:43	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	108	45¢	$49	0x016d7e…
07-18 05:17:57	Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$15	0x28a617…
07-13 10:02:20	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	1,702	84¢	$1,430	0x55506f…
07-13 00:56:58	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	400	84¢	$336	0xc4532a…
07-12 11:50:40	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	267	92¢	$245	0xe0504a…
07-12 11:10:20	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xe691d2…
07-11 14:17:17	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	34	84¢	$29	0xf2572c…
07-09 20:46:04	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x3166bb…
07-08 20:34:22	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	204	84¢	$172	0x9cfc70…
07-08 20:08:07	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	400	84¢	$336	0x817563…
07-08 19:38:07	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	48	84¢	$40	0x8d0497…
07-07 22:57:16	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	750	84¢	$630	0x356f09…
07-06 17:44:16	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	67	84¢	$56	0xbb10e2…
07-05 23:44:55	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	70	84¢	$59	0x3b92a1…
07-05 23:44:53	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	SELL	320	84¢	$269	0xf62b89…
06-29 21:39:19	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	305	34¢	$104	0x0cb71c…
06-29 21:19:40	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	22	34¢	$8	0xa4cbd1…
06-29 21:19:40	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	22	34¢	$8	0x492cc9…
06-29 21:19:14	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x8bbcc5…
06-29 21:19:04	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	2,526	34¢	$859	0x8c07a8…
06-29 21:19:04	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	24	34¢	$8	0x495254…
06-29 14:27:53	SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?	Yes	BUY	879	99¢	$874	0x340b1c…
06-26 03:10:31	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	13¢	$130	0x4157b7…
06-25 23:51:47	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x15b407…
06-25 23:29:13	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x847158…
06-25 23:28:46	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	SELL	15	17¢	$3	0x515f5d…
06-25 23:27:49	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0xeda016…
06-25 23:22:08	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	BUY	35	83¢	$29	0x8779df…
06-25 14:39:41	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	SELL	562	64¢	$361	0x0ebd4f…
06-25 01:43:31	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	37	89¢	$33	0x0f41f7…
06-24 23:15:20	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x9b35e1…
06-24 22:48:19	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	29	89¢	$26	0xb058b6…
06-24 22:40:41	jay clayton confirmed as director of national intelligence by june 30 20260611210916706	No	BUY	1,197	93¢	$1,110	0x78974b…
06-24 20:54:13	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	190	89¢	$169	0xf50e5d…
06-17 22:16:43	will mamdani cancel class thursday for the knicks parade 20260615160813579	No	BUY	910	97¢	$881	0xc73e09…
06-13 16:52:58	will trump speak to keir starmer in june	Yes	BUY	591	99¢	$584	0x970c2e…
06-07 17:09:09	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5,000	94¢	$4,700	0xd0e141…
06-07 15:38:24	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x9f13fd…
06-07 15:38:21	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x5d54fe…
06-07 15:37:54	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x9f43a9…
06-07 15:37:54	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x68c722…
06-07 15:37:54	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x37094f…
06-07 15:37:52	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0xe68877…
06-07 15:37:52	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xc0926c…
06-07 15:37:52	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x7b145d…
06-07 15:37:51	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	667	93¢	$621	0x408479…
06-07 08:40:22	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	27	93¢	$25	0x6b7866…
06-07 01:52:49	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x36cb01…
06-07 01:52:07	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xa70f3c…
06-07 01:51:57	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xefbcc8…
06-07 01:51:49	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x6a4ff8…
06-07 01:51:43	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb35ab4…
06-07 01:51:36	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xce3628…
06-07 01:51:34	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xf61877…
06-07 01:51:34	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xb3a775…
06-07 01:51:34	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	39	93¢	$36	0x4a20a0…
06-07 01:51:33	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2,683	92¢	$2,469	0x425d04…
06-06 23:49:22	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0xc0a31f…
06-06 00:37:30	will the senate pass a reconciliation bill by june 5 388	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x885d77…
06-06 00:07:22	will the senate pass a reconciliation bill by june 5 388	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5701e5…
06-05 10:18:42	will the senate pass a reconciliation bill by june 5 388	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xb96d4e…
06-01 19:47:51	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x0f9342…
06-01 19:41:31	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xffd3a7…
06-01 19:41:26	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x23da14…
06-01 19:41:24	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xf7a9b0…
06-01 19:41:24	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0xefb7d9…
06-01 19:41:23	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x6ea499…
06-01 19:41:21	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x49b9e3…
06-01 19:41:19	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x392933…
06-01 02:40:34	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x45087e…
06-01 02:40:26	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0xf5805f…
05-31 04:39:14	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0x48b6b5…
05-23 03:08:53	Trump re-sues WSJ by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x6741d0…
05-22 16:24:37	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0xeea0f5…
05-22 16:10:33	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0x58a4db…
05-22 12:56:50	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	121	98¢	$119	0x2865bc…
05-21 21:35:31	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	476	98¢	$468	0xd6af35…
05-21 18:57:17	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0x28ffd8…
05-21 18:05:38	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	No	BUY	5,431	96¢	$5,198	0x32d4ca…
05-15 14:00:25	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	150	93¢	$139	0xe41a99…
05-15 13:03:48	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x9f59a7…
05-15 12:36:41	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x1201ef…
05-15 12:34:38	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0x6f0933…