Realized P&L
-$9
Unrealized P&L
-$23
Hit rate
55.3%
Resolved
74
Trades
8,465
lifetime
Volume
$30.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$113
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 07-21 23:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 21 days
Categories
Other
67% 46% $-10
Politics
19% 55% $-3
Crypto
5% 56% +$8
Sports
5% 50% $-4
Pop-Culture
3%
Tech
2%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 74 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes -19 $-3 40¢ $-8 $-5 06-09 08:56
Haiti elections delayed again? Yes +8 $3 92¢ $7 +$4 06-01 00:53
Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes -18 $-3 33¢ $-6 $-3 06-22 12:30
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes -13 $-6 44¢ $-6 +$0 05-28 08:02
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes -18 $-4 31¢ $-6 $-2 06-02 08:45
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes +12 $7 46¢ $6 $-1 05-28 16:52
Tori FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes -15 $-2 33¢ $-5 $-3 06-04 11:51
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes -10 $-3 50¢ $-5 $-2 06-05 10:43
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes -6 $-4 76¢ $-5 $-0 06-28 17:27
Will Ansem appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes -30 $-4 15¢ $-4 $-0 06-03 16:37
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +4 $1 98¢ $4 +$3 06-28 21:00
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes -19 $-3 20¢ $-4 $-1 06-23 18:05
Will Doja Cat have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes -26 $-1 14¢ $-4 $-2 05-28 22:45
Will GBP/USD hit 1.25 (Low) in 2026? Yes -8 $-2 42¢ $-3 $-1 06-09 09:02
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes -10 $-2 32¢ $-3 $-1 06-12 19:45
Will CryptoPunks floor price dip to 10 ETH before 2027? Yes -26 $-3 12¢ $-3 $-0 06-12 17:23
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes -14 $-3 22¢ $-3 $-0 06-21 21:20
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes +4 $3 74¢ $3 +$0 06-04 08:14
Will QFEX launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes -19 $-3 15¢ $-3 +$0 06-05 12:22
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31? Yes -8 $-3 35¢ $-3 +$1 05-31 21:04
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes -4 $2 69¢ $-3 $-5 06-18 00:15
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? Yes -19 $-5 14¢ $-3 +$2 05-31 10:41
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? Yes -21 $-2 12¢ $-3 $-1 06-09 04:37
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes -27 $-4 10¢ $-3 +$2 06-06 08:42
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes +24 $9 10¢ $3 $-6 06-11 14:32
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes -4 $-2 59¢ $-3 $-1 06-21 17:58
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Yes -14 $-3 16¢ $-2 +$1 06-01 08:36
Don Lemon sentenced to prison? Yes -15 $-1 14¢ $-2 $-1 05-30 09:20
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes +4 $2 52¢ $2 +$0 06-18 12:37
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes -10 $-2 21¢ $-2 +$0 06-09 09:03