Realized P&L
-$268
Unrealized P&L
-$17
Hit rate
57.6%
Resolved
3,241
Trades
12,709
lifetime
Volume
$51.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$33
25 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 10-31 22:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 282 days
Categories
Other
69% 48% -$364
Politics
19% 55% +$29
Crypto
4% 49% -$10
Sports
4% 52% +$81
Tech
3% 62% -$20
Pop-Culture
2% 59% +$17
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
64 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat? Yes -29 -$7 48¢ $-14 -$7 05-12 00:11
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Yes +12 $9 36¢ $4 -$5 10-31 14:22
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes -4 -$2 86¢ $-3 -$2 05-27 07:39
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? Yes +4 $2 87¢ $3 +$2 10-28 16:12
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes -2 -$1 85¢ $-2 $0 09-22 14:01
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes -5 -$1 24¢ $-1 +$0 09-22 14:01
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes -4 -$2 18¢ $-1 +$1 06-21 17:58
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes -3 -$1 23¢ $-1 +$1 06-04 16:32
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Yes -3 -$1 27¢ $-1 +$0 06-11 22:16
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026? Yes +4 $5 14¢ $0 -$4 10-22 00:41
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes -2 -$1 16¢ $-0 +$1 05-03 09:50
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes -1 $0 62¢ $-0 $0 09-22 13:56
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +1 -$1 42¢ $0 +$1 10-30 20:00
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes -1 $0 14¢ $-0 +$0 05-07 19:45
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? Yes -1 $0 16¢ $-0 +$0 05-07 19:45
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -4 $0 4¢ $-0 +$0 09-22 13:55
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes -2 $6 10¢ $-0 -$6 06-23 18:05
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes -2 $0 6¢ $-0 +$0 09-22 13:54
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Yes -2 $0 4¢ $-0 +$0 09-22 13:54
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes -1 $0 6¢ $-0 +$0 09-22 13:53
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Yes -1 $0 5¢ $-0 +$0 09-22 13:52
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Yes -1 $0 6¢ $-0 $0 09-22 13:51
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes -1 $0 4¢ $-0 $0 09-22 13:49
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes -2 $0 1¢ $-0 $0 09-22 13:50
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 -$1 12¢ $0 +$1 05-27 10:54