(anonymous) 0x2ef893…a4b0f4
6W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$542
Unrealized P&L
-$355
Hit rate
77.0%
Resolved
297
Trades
2,653
lifetime
Volume
$81.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$31
Open exposure
$1.97K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-05
last 10-26 22:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 68 days
Categories
Other
55% 46% +$505
Politics
43% 57% +$243
Tech
2% 0% -$196
Crypto
0% 44% -$9
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 167 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +294 $256 98¢ $288 +$32 09-29 23:36
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +246 $223 96¢ $235 +$12 10-23 09:50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? Yes +218 $202 98¢ $215 +$13 10-25 22:24
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes +214 $184 56¢ $120 -$64 10-25 02:08
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? No +107 $175 96¢ $103 -$72 10-15 21:30
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Yes +783 $289 13¢ $102 -$187 10-11 15:58
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No +93 $89 96¢ $89 +$0 09-29 18:11
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +317 $51 22¢ $70 +$19 10-10 21:13
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +441 $147 16¢ $68 -$78 10-25 23:08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +63 -$83 96¢ $61 +$144 10-24 22:22
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +88 $49 68¢ $60 +$11 10-23 15:46
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes +394 $43 12¢ $49 +$6 10-22 08:32
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Yes +77 $107 60¢ $47 -$61 10-26 00:32
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +58 $31 70¢ $40 +$9 09-23 02:26
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +58 $32 68¢ $40 +$8 09-17 00:42
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +60 $31 62¢ $37 +$6 08-29 01:57
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No +37 $3 100¢ $37 +$34 09-08 08:48
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? Yes +127 $22 28¢ $36 +$13 10-11 17:06
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? Yes +404 $69 8¢ $34 -$34 09-24 11:18
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes +205 $52 13¢ $27 -$25 09-15 22:14
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? Yes +266 $40 10¢ $27 -$13 10-20 15:17
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +92 $24 26¢ $23 $0 10-16 18:56
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? No +73 $31 32¢ $23 -$8 10-25 22:04
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? Yes +90 $33 26¢ $23 -$10 10-20 21:34
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes +180 -$8 13¢ $23 +$31 10-15 01:50
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +146 $86 15¢ $21 -$65 10-25 13:09
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? Yes +41 $23 49¢ $20 -$3 10-19 04:47
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes +308 $90 6¢ $20 -$70 09-15 20:38
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +21 $15 88¢ $19 +$3 10-17 00:26
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? No +25 $22 70¢ $18 -$4 09-09 13:09