(anonymous) 0x2ef893…a4b0f4 Create alert
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Realized P&L (90d)
+$703
Unrealized P&L
-$1.23K
Hit rate
73.9%
Resolved (90d)
328
Trades (90d)
2,107
2,721 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$68.8K
$83.9K lifetime
Avg / trade
$31
Open exposure
$698
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-05
last 11-02 23:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 83 days
Categories
Other
55% 48% +$708
Politics
43% 54% +$53
Tech
2% 12% -$175
Crypto
0% 44% -$9
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
51 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027? No +265 $212 82¢ $216 +$4 10-15 13:19
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Yes +783 $289 8¢ $67 -$222 10-11 15:58
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31? Yes +241 $65 24¢ $57 -$8 10-24 11:31
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes +156 $118 33¢ $51 -$67 10-17 00:25
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027? Yes +425 $166 9¢ $39 -$127 10-18 23:51
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +441 $147 8¢ $33 -$114 10-25 23:08
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? Yes +114 $17 27¢ $31 +$14 10-19 03:54
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026? Yes +225 $50 9¢ $20 -$30 10-10 21:13
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? Yes +266 $40 8¢ $20 -$20 10-20 15:17
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +117 $44 16¢ $19 -$26 09-04 13:09
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? Yes +404 $69 4¢ $18 -$51 09-24 11:18
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027? Yes +76 $11 18¢ $14 +$4 10-25 13:27
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes +205 $52 6¢ $13 -$38 09-15 22:14
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027? Yes +78 $10 16¢ $12 +$2 10-22 20:36
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%? Yes +51 $16 18¢ $9 -$7 09-23 21:28
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes +16 $6 56¢ $9 +$3 08-25 01:02
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes +308 $90 3¢ $8 -$82 09-15 20:38
North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +64 $24 12¢ $8 -$16 10-19 10:14
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? Yes +147 $23 5¢ $8 -$15 10-17 07:37
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? Yes +225 $64 3¢ $8 -$57 10-15 06:20
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027 Yes +36 $252 20¢ $7 -$245 10-15 01:51
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +7 $10 98¢ $7 -$3 10-26 00:31
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027? Yes +25 $6 17¢ $4 -$1 10-23 13:07
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes +30 $8 13¢ $4 -$4 08-15 05:20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +4 $5 98¢ $4 -$1 10-26 00:32
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes +53 $17 6¢ $3 -$13 10-20 06:27
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31? No +3 -$5 95¢ $3 +$8 10-26 00:32
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in February 2027 (ET)? No +3 $3 100¢ $3 +$0 10-27 16:05
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes +3 $29 99¢ $3 -$27 10-23 18:05
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? No +2 $88 97¢ $2 -$86 11-02 23:17