Wrong-Apprehension — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.58K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.13K

Hit rate

67.0%

Resolved

Trades

431

lifetime

Volume

$53.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$123

Open exposure

$9.15K

13 positions

First seen

2026-04-02

last 08-31 13:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Other

76% 36% +$4,243

Politics

11% 57% -$1,032

Tech

8% 43% +$1,906

Sports

5% 80% +$724

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$239

Crypto

0% 0% -$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	No	+8,150	$6,311	95¢	$7.7K	+$1,427	05-28 12:11
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	-278	-$249	95¢	$-265	-$16	08-31 13:57
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	+300	$222	84¢	$254	+$31	06-02 15:02
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+240	$56	95¢	$228	+$172	05-04 01:52
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	No	+203	$152	64¢	$131	-$21	06-12 01:41
Stripe IPO before 2027?	No	+105	$89	98¢	$103	+$14	04-28 23:17
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	+657	$258	14¢	$92	-$166	05-21 04:09
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,147	$156	8¢	$92	-$65	06-07 01:49
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Yes	+1,737	$464	5¢	$80	-$385	05-20 14:47
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+303	$53	20¢	$59	+$6	05-28 12:05
Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	+60	$49	98¢	$59	+$10	06-04 17:04
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+463	$60	11¢	$51	-$9	06-01 03:29
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+0	-$126	96¢	$0	+$126	06-22 01:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$8.7K	5,300	5,300	+0	No	+$634	05-09 02:37
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	14	$6.3K	8,150	0	+8,150	open	—	05-28 12:11
Kash Patel out by June 30?	17	$2.9K	6,185	191	+5,994	No	-$917	06-02 22:03
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	9	$2.5K	7,915	0	+7,915	Yes	+$5,384	06-02 21:45
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	5	$2.3K	2,500	0	+2,500	No	-$2,265	05-12 01:59
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	19	$2.0K	2,332	993	+1,340	open	—	06-20 22:40
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	5	$1.6K	1,978	0	+1,978	Yes	+$387	05-04 16:17
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	9	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	06-22 01:57
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	1	$1.4K	2,500	0	+2,500	Lakers	+$1,125	04-24 00:03
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	5	$1.4K	1,932	0	+1,932	No	-$1,372	05-18 23:56
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	20	$1.3K	969	900	+69	open	—	07-04 11:57
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$1.2K	1,486	0	+1,486	Yes	+$289	05-05 03:28
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	4	$1.1K	1,214	0	+1,214	No	+$101	05-29 06:11
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?	1	$1.1K	1,201	0	+1,201	Yes	+$124	05-28 13:31
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	2	$1.1K	1,240	0	+1,240	Yes	+$183	06-04 03:10
Kash Patel out by May 31?	18	$1.1K	7,120	0	+7,120	No	-$1,056	05-14 02:41
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	6	$965	1,850	1,193	+657	open	—	05-21 04:09
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	2	$954	1,033	0	+1,033	No	+$79	05-21 04:06
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	4	$935	1,091	0	+1,091	Yes	+$156	06-15 00:01
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?	3	$919	955	0	+955	No	+$36	05-29 22:49
Will Trump deport 300-400k people?	10	$807	1,194	80	+1,114	open	—	06-12 01:46
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	9	$714	1,737	278	+1,459	open	—	08-31 13:57
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	2	$651	1,256	0	+1,256	open	—	05-18 01:04
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	13	$538	7,260	0	+7,260	No	-$538	06-03 05:06
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	1	$522	1,778	0	+1,778	Yes	-$522	05-04 22:57
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	11	$487	5,043	0	+5,043	No	-$487	05-22 23:41
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	16	$464	15,093	0	+15,093	No	-$464	06-08 23:20
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	9	$442	2,521	0	+2,521	Yes	+$2,079	06-04 02:41
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	9	$437	1,516	0	+1,516	Yes	+$1,079	05-21 21:18
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	4	$421	2,549	0	+2,549	Yes	+$2,128	04-29 16:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 13:57:13	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	21	91¢	$19	0xa87e5b…
08-03 06:26:14	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0xcef1d1…
08-02 15:59:18	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	90	91¢	$82	0xdbc209…
07-04 11:57:13	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	113	70¢	$79	0xe19d57…
07-01 16:18:29	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x24ad0d…
07-01 16:15:11	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x5d23c8…
07-01 08:12:46	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0x88816c…
07-01 05:03:01	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	70¢	$13	0x42d742…
06-25 06:13:28	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x895c1d…
06-25 05:24:53	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	139	89¢	$123	0xbc59c1…
06-22 01:57:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	145	53¢	$77	0x4b22fd…
06-21 22:42:53	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	134	53¢	$71	0x2f3fab…
06-21 16:21:22	Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xf47bf4…
06-21 13:18:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	34	53¢	$18	0xf3ae93…
06-21 10:19:32	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	18	53¢	$10	0x515bdc…
06-20 22:40:52	Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	No	SELL	5	67¢	$4	0x3b92db…
06-20 22:40:47	Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x555459…
06-20 22:40:43	Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	No	SELL	30	67¢	$20	0x1529a2…
06-20 17:51:31	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	648	53¢	$343	0x902581…
06-19 12:31:53	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x8f1ce7…
06-19 06:55:41	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	200	57¢	$114	0xba0376…
06-19 06:55:26	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	200	57¢	$114	0x8a4c0b…
06-19 06:35:31	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	122	57¢	$69	0xe6680f…
06-18 15:48:01	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0xdf5511…
06-18 14:36:29	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0xc46732…
06-16 22:47:22	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	69¢	$24	0xfd0b49…
06-16 08:52:00	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xec1969…
06-15 00:01:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0xfe99b6…
06-14 23:59:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	88¢	$60	0xdc919f…
06-14 16:05:37	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x7667bb…
06-13 21:36:34	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	69¢	$10	0xbe5b85…
06-13 15:23:16	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0xa058a6…
06-13 11:57:07	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x5a837c…
06-13 11:56:57	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	341	69¢	$235	0x1b72fd…
06-13 11:56:15	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x21a2b9…
06-12 01:46:09	Will Trump deport 300-400k people?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x297199…
06-12 01:43:39	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	6¢	$7	0xaf9346…
06-12 01:41:51	Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	No	BUY	111	79¢	$88	0xf36710…
06-12 01:37:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	85¢	$427	0x0a4bfd…
06-08 23:20:09	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$6	0x8b67d2…
06-08 01:59:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	503	86¢	$431	0x890fb9…
06-07 01:52:55	Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?	No	BUY	104	15¢	$15	0xad9a8b…
06-07 01:52:24	Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?	No	BUY	99	15¢	$15	0x7a440e…
06-07 01:51:39	Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?	No	BUY	131	6¢	$8	0x8644c5…
06-07 01:49:24	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	311	10¢	$31	0x86760e…
06-07 01:48:22	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	12¢	$10	0x505b7f…
06-07 01:26:27	Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x66c042…
06-04 18:31:01	Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x028698…
06-04 18:10:16	Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0xca4314…
06-04 17:04:24	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	60	82¢	$49	0x35f1ab…
06-04 16:27:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5,000	2¢	$110	0xff59db…
06-04 16:25:57	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$44	0x4a9cf3…
06-04 16:25:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$21	0xf0cf65…
06-04 15:36:19	Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x8fd342…
06-04 14:32:04	Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0xb91212…
06-04 14:25:43	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	72¢	$43	0xf339f5…
06-04 14:19:31	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	600	2¢	$11	0xc5e5fb…
06-04 14:11:55	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xa9c0b4…
06-04 03:32:30	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	800	70¢	$562	0xdb7db2…
06-04 03:31:22	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	95	61¢	$58	0x587378…
06-04 03:29:55	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	74	60¢	$45	0xbceeb4…
06-04 03:10:55	Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	Yes	BUY	1,000	86¢	$858	0x76262a…
06-04 02:41:18	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	16¢	$48	0x426326…
06-04 02:22:45	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,500	2¢	$26	0x2cb763…
06-03 17:06:55	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	14¢	$14	0xb1483c…
06-03 13:10:15	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	17¢	$9	0x36471f…
06-03 13:08:48	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	397	17¢	$66	0x5af747…
06-03 05:06:26	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0x96ae28…
06-03 05:02:44	Another US debt downgrade before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x186173…
06-03 02:55:50	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	22¢	$66	0xb4cce6…
06-02 22:03:54	Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	186	7¢	$13	0x4bad7a…
06-02 21:50:57	Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	Yes	BUY	240	83¢	$199	0x8ff30b…
06-02 21:46:54	Another US debt downgrade before 2027?	Yes	BUY	194	28¢	$54	0xf7b1d2…
06-02 21:45:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,600	10¢	$160	0xb65584…
06-02 21:45:18	Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	380	8¢	$30	0xc30401…
06-02 15:02:42	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	300	74¢	$222	0xb1a767…
06-02 03:05:44	Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?	No	BUY	274	24¢	$66	0xd72c5e…
06-02 03:02:30	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$48	0x501336…
06-02 02:37:00	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	10¢	$10	0xb72bbb…
06-02 02:34:26	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	345	10¢	$34	0xb81742…
06-02 01:14:03	Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?	No	BUY	250	24¢	$60	0x1f42a8…
06-02 01:11:13	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	46¢	$690	0x32d1af…
06-01 14:48:45	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x62cb18…
06-01 14:48:08	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x0b981c…
06-01 14:31:06	Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?	No	BUY	350	1¢	$5	0xde774c…
06-01 14:22:30	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0xd4c690…
06-01 14:02:54	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	BUY	400	7¢	$27	0xdfd2d2…
06-01 13:34:26	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$78	0x276c74…
06-01 13:32:41	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	7¢	$19	0x3a6dc1…
06-01 13:30:59	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	662	2¢	$11	0xddb814…
06-01 13:29:51	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	700	2¢	$12	0x7476f0…
06-01 03:29:45	Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	232	13¢	$30	0x865252…
05-31 23:50:02	Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xbcd6cf…
05-31 23:46:22	Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	12¢	$4	0x2b7ef7…
05-30 23:36:10	Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	No	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x33d7eb…
05-30 18:03:14	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	BUY	350	9¢	$31	0xc6ccf6…
05-30 17:59:37	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0x27c369…
05-30 17:55:25	Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd9530c…
05-30 17:52:45	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x2605ce…
05-30 17:50:52	Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x8f21e1…