Ringed-Grenade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

-$1.47K

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

Trades

724

lifetime

Volume

$9.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$4.71K

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 06-29 20:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

80% — —

Crypto

20% 67% +$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 62 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+20,854	$5,654	19¢	$4.0K	$-1,692	06-29 18:26
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	-11,315	$-832	6¢	$-679	+$153	06-29 20:15
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	-350	$-63	14¢	$-47	+$16	06-06 20:29
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	-234	$-24	6¢	$-13	+$11	06-06 20:29
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	-1,061	$-53	1¢	$-9	+$44	06-07 15:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	37	$5.7K	20,854	0	+20,854	open	—	06-29 18:26
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	20	$832	0	11,315	-11,315	open	—	06-29 20:15
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	7	$223	10,700	1,700	+9,000	open	—	04-27 20:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$195	500	500	+0	open	—	04-10 14:41
btc updown 5m 1773860100	18	$172	157	156	+0	open	—	03-18 19:00
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	3	$165	253	603	-350	open	—	06-06 20:29
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$118	8,429	0	+8,429	open	—	03-06 15:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$96	130	130	+0	open	—	04-28 19:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	10	$95	157	74	+83	open	—	05-23 20:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	9	$93	445	445	+0	open	—	04-29 11:48
btc updown 5m 1773857400	10	$75	62	61	+1	open	—	03-18 18:13
btc updown 5m 1773864600	4	$63	54	53	+0	open	—	03-18 20:14
btc updown 5m 1774202100	14	$54	104	83	+21	open	—	03-22 17:59
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	4	$53	0	1,061	-1,061	open	—	06-07 15:50
btc updown 5m 1773857700	5	$53	884	55	+828	open	—	03-18 18:19
btc updown 5m 1774200000	8	$43	130	130	+1	open	—	03-22 17:24
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference?	4	$42	28	28	+0	open	—	04-29 19:25
btc updown 5m 1773858000	1	$41	71	0	+71	open	—	03-18 18:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	14	$38	192	0	+192	open	—	05-23 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	10	$37	47	31	+17	open	—	05-23 20:29
btc updown 5m 1776457800	10	$34	334	0	+334	open	—	04-17 20:31
btc updown 5m 1776457500	14	$31	96	80	+16	open	—	04-17 20:28
btc updown 5m 1774257600	5	$29	28	28	+0	open	—	03-23 09:24
btc updown 5m 1773859200	6	$29	110	18	+92	open	—	03-18 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	6	$27	66	0	+66	open	—	05-23 20:41
btc updown 5m 1773859500	4	$26	169	18	+150	open	—	03-18 18:49
btc updown 5m 1774201200	6	$26	22	22	+0	open	—	03-22 17:43
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	1	$24	0	234	-234	open	—	06-06 20:29
btc updown 5m 1773858900	4	$23	290	190	+100	open	—	03-18 18:39
btc updown 5m 1774470600	12	$23	69	37	+31	open	—	03-25 20:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 20:15:34	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xcadecb…
06-29 18:26:29	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x540a83…
06-29 07:26:26	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x63c610…
06-21 14:45:35	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	251	19¢	$47	0x1e813a…
06-21 13:20:31	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	119	18¢	$21	0x89ead4…
06-21 12:46:31	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	7¢	$35	0x67b500…
06-21 11:01:16	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	525	7¢	$37	0x1a421b…
06-20 12:13:25	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	297	19¢	$56	0x136c46…
06-20 12:11:38	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0x9f96a1…
06-19 23:34:37	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	7¢	$70	0x9450d4…
06-19 20:13:08	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	244	17¢	$42	0x0a00ae…
06-19 20:12:28	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	700	6¢	$42	0x13ddf6…
06-18 13:47:26	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	760	22¢	$167	0xe45d05…
06-18 11:53:08	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,500	7¢	$175	0xbcfbd7…
06-18 05:37:19	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x164d24…
06-17 20:52:17	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xfd404c…
06-17 20:50:43	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70	23¢	$16	0xd11f59…
06-17 20:50:40	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	23¢	$10	0x3f452e…
06-17 20:50:38	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	23¢	$10	0x0a1f6e…
06-17 20:50:37	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	23¢	$10	0x6052fb…
06-17 20:50:34	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	155	23¢	$36	0x2074b4…
06-17 20:50:32	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	170	23¢	$39	0x77fc51…
06-17 20:25:05	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,800	7¢	$126	0x724c93…
06-16 22:33:25	btc updown 5m 1781649000	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc09d73…
06-16 22:32:49	btc updown 5m 1781649000	Down	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x350c19…
06-16 22:31:25	btc updown 5m 1781649000	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x368d7f…
06-15 19:41:27	btc updown 5m 1781552400	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x9c4c20…
06-15 06:58:40	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,500	8¢	$120	0xa8b0c3…
06-15 06:53:19	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	161	24¢	$39	0x9a99bd…
06-14 23:52:54	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xd8965a…
06-14 23:22:51	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	447	8¢	$36	0xad11ae…
06-14 09:18:51	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	411	24¢	$99	0x593bc5…
06-14 09:15:39	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	23¢	$10	0x7b02bd…
06-14 09:15:31	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	132	23¢	$30	0x165e79…
06-14 08:19:48	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	442	8¢	$35	0x691b71…
06-10 13:59:06	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	24¢	$14	0x774c84…
06-10 11:03:10	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	183	8¢	$15	0xcd66db…
06-10 02:07:52	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x192457…
06-09 15:01:57	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	224	24¢	$54	0xf7ba6a…
06-09 10:53:01	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x709f26…
06-09 09:00:03	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	22¢	$6	0x0d537c…
06-09 06:02:54	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	309	8¢	$25	0x54c8ec…
06-08 12:22:42	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x0a17fa…
06-08 12:21:49	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xadd70d…
06-08 12:21:40	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	175	22¢	$38	0x61d723…
06-08 12:14:42	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,140	8¢	$91	0x22346c…
06-08 12:12:09	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x49d42e…
06-08 12:10:18	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	8¢	$4	0xbfab52…
06-07 16:41:55	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	24¢	$5	0xce226e…
06-07 15:50:52	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	79	5¢	$4	0xad46f2…
06-07 14:54:12	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	117	24¢	$28	0xb36ac2…
06-07 12:14:51	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	600	5¢	$30	0x00376e…
06-07 11:29:45	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x5c231d…
06-07 09:32:31	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	38	5¢	$2	0x14d4db…
06-06 22:20:33	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xbbdc28…
06-06 22:19:25	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	10¢	$4	0xd34164…
06-06 22:19:01	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	75	10¢	$8	0xe7f782…
06-06 20:36:39	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	90	25¢	$22	0x79c9e7…
06-06 20:35:48	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	345	5¢	$17	0x782040…
06-06 20:34:19	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	65	10¢	$6	0x7d21d4…
06-06 20:32:33	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	284	25¢	$71	0x7dd4a5…
06-06 20:29:39	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	166	17¢	$28	0x5d7005…
06-06 20:29:25	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	234	10¢	$24	0x0e44a1…
06-06 20:07:15	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x20a9f3…
06-06 20:01:33	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,278	24¢	$304	0x537b25…
06-06 19:47:42	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	344	23¢	$78	0x40f3d8…
06-06 19:46:15	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	437	20¢	$86	0x230efb…
06-05 23:46:28	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	253	20¢	$51	0x9ba9e1…
06-05 23:42:24	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x0a068d…
06-05 23:41:28	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x627ea4…
06-05 23:41:21	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x8c7bf8…
06-05 23:41:16	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x6b5374…
06-05 23:41:09	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x894376…
06-05 23:41:03	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf3403e…
06-05 23:40:57	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x63ace9…
06-05 23:40:51	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa3a2ef…
06-05 23:40:48	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xad94ec…
06-05 23:40:09	btc updown 5m 1780702800	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x38869a…
06-05 23:36:48	btc updown 5m 1780702500	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xf654e0…
06-05 23:28:22	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,659	29¢	$4,251	0x4eab5c…
05-23 20:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x954052…
05-23 20:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x0a6afc…
05-23 20:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x9c1e38…
05-23 20:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xe63076…
05-23 20:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0xa001d2…
05-23 20:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x7f3c1a…
05-23 20:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xff3a1f…
05-23 20:31:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xd5c6b8…
05-23 20:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x99385a…
05-23 20:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0aec2e…
05-23 20:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xc07425…
05-23 20:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb988c2…
05-23 20:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	31	69¢	$21	0xc385d3…
05-23 20:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x40ad71…
05-23 20:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x1d0092…
05-23 20:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x931b00…
05-23 20:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x8511cd…
05-23 20:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x764a98…
05-23 20:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x04f200…
05-23 20:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x87961c…