Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$983

Unrealized P&L

+$114

Hit rate

63.6%

Resolved

318

Trades

2,937

lifetime

Volume

$52.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

11 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 10-15 07:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Politics

56% 55% +$494

Other

35% 48% +$531

Crypto

6% 35% -$274

Sports

3% 68% +$224

Tech

0% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 230 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Yes	+160	$5	2¢	$3	-$2	07-28 12:26
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	+31	$5	4¢	$1	-$4	08-13 00:10
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+11	$0	1¢	$0	$0	08-02 18:58
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	+0	-$76	100¢	$0	+$76	10-08 08:58
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+0	-$25	86¢	$0	+$25	08-16 13:38
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	No	+0	$0	86¢	$0	+$0	08-20 17:22
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+0	-$4	85¢	$0	+$4	08-19 18:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+0	-$11	82¢	$0	+$11	08-17 13:25
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+0	$3	48¢	$0	-$3	10-08 21:14
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+0	-$6	0¢	$0	+$6	08-07 13:02
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	+0	$0	0¢	$0	$0	08-04 19:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	162	$6.4K	6,708	5,902	+806	Yes	+$271	08-11 18:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	63	$3.2K	2,466	2,466	+0	open	—	08-17 13:25
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	92	$2.6K	5,195	2,649	+2,546	No	-$69	07-29 23:32
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	25	$1.7K	5,198	2,882	+2,316	No	-$135	08-16 08:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	34	$1.6K	1,525	1,525	+0	open	—	08-25 03:45
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	67	$1.5K	3,109	2,556	+554	No	+$312	08-25 23:46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	43	$1.3K	1,759	1,612	+147	No	+$51	07-29 18:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	121	$1.3K	954	954	+0	No	-$34	08-23 16:56
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	19	$980	10,273	8,606	+1,667	No	+$241	08-04 18:40
Fed rate hike in 2026?	13	$925	1,123	1,123	+0	Yes	-$67	08-12 04:35
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	34	$858	1,280	1,135	+145	No	+$12	08-07 20:57
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	30	$855	811	811	+0	open	—	10-14 13:03
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	38	$840	1,195	1,193	+2	No	-$145	08-14 21:50
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	18	$804	1,390	1,390	+0	No	-$41	08-26 20:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	20	$703	862	862	+0	Yes	+$36	07-29 18:01
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-17 16:00 UTC	110	$679	716	682	+34	Up	+$22	08-17 18:16
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	9	$660	340	340	+0	No	+$2	08-18 18:30
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	2	$628	353	353	+0	open	—	10-07 09:41
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$617	345	345	+0	open	—	10-06 19:46
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	2	$597	341	341	+0	open	—	07-27 02:16
will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	28	$588	702	620	+82	No	-$17	08-01 18:54
Iran leadership change by December 31?	9	$568	361	361	+0	open	—	08-16 13:38
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	15	$550	774	354	+420	Yes	-$227	08-04 04:23
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	24	$535	1,100	385	+715	Yes	+$625	08-12 22:09
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	19	$519	298	298	+0	open	—	10-06 20:08
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	3	$519	540	0	+540	No	+$21	07-30 22:20
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	12	$518	524	156	+368	Yes	+$89	07-31 07:33
iran full airspace closure by july 24	8	$510	560	318	+242	No	-$7	07-25 03:43
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	28	$501	650	626	+24	Yes	+$67	08-25 23:58
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	39	$489	491	436	+55	No	-$21	08-12 02:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 07:06:59	Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	89	45¢	$40	0xf9a468…
10-15 07:06:58	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	44	46¢	$20	0x9b41ed…
10-15 07:06:58	Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	SELL	17	89¢	$15	0x582d61…
10-15 07:06:56	Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	12	85¢	$11	0x782c15…
10-15 07:06:56	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x6a4b3e…
10-15 07:06:55	Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x7abbb0…
10-15 07:06:53	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	23¢	$16	0xfe6e87…
10-15 07:06:53	Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x709a0d…
10-14 22:49:45	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	191	6¢	$11	0xa631a8…
10-14 13:03:47	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	101	87¢	$88	0xf40890…
10-14 10:39:17	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0xf93951…
10-13 23:32:12	Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x43ed69…
10-11 19:45:10	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	SELL	47	89¢	$42	0xcedf33…
10-11 14:12:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	273	11¢	$30	0xa4ae1b…
10-11 14:04:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	201	11¢	$22	0x60686a…
10-11 13:44:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	340	11¢	$37	0x8716ac…
10-09 04:54:06	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	SELL	23	50¢	$11	0x544d57…
10-09 04:50:00	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x352318…
10-09 04:47:18	Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x3ca05e…
10-08 21:14:38	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0xb7a493…
10-08 21:14:27	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0x804032…
10-08 20:44:26	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x73e9f9…
10-08 18:57:23	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0xdf0c55…
10-08 17:31:23	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0x3fbb14…
10-08 13:56:14	Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x5ec10d…
10-08 08:58:59	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	184	94¢	$173	0x8b7c14…
10-08 08:51:40	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xf844f5…
10-08 03:03:08	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x9e6b61…
10-08 03:03:08	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x256d0d…
10-08 03:03:05	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x906e8d…
10-08 03:03:05	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x87217d…
10-08 03:03:05	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x725a27…
10-08 03:03:05	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x71919e…
10-08 01:26:35	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	87¢	$30	0x7ebaa4…
10-07 23:15:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x101261…
10-07 22:38:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	3¢	$2	0x7fedeb…
10-07 21:06:05	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x6d58f4…
10-07 20:30:41	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	143	19¢	$27	0x2652f8…
10-07 20:28:44	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0xff9fc4…
10-07 20:22:38	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	52	19¢	$10	0xc35e47…
10-07 19:52:34	Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x8efaee…
10-07 19:00:01	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x61b9df…
10-07 18:56:15	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0xdc72bd…
10-07 16:55:14	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xc1e588…
10-07 15:49:37	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	289	35¢	$101	0xd419e5…
10-07 14:20:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	135	85¢	$115	0x05559e…
10-07 13:56:02	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	19	80¢	$15	0x2371ec…
10-07 13:33:08	Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0xef8db8…
10-07 11:25:10	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0xb836de…
10-07 09:41:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	353	93¢	$328	0x4b077b…
10-07 09:27:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	46	17¢	$8	0x159f62…
10-07 08:47:30	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	21¢	$4	0xf21468…
10-07 08:17:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	33	92¢	$30	0xea4376…
10-07 07:49:26	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	23	19¢	$4	0x281fac…
10-07 02:36:50	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0x61f360…
10-07 00:42:40	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	66	4¢	$3	0xbbeccd…
10-07 00:42:16	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0x7bdf9a…
10-07 00:13:30	Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	36	21¢	$7	0x72c066…
10-06 23:12:49	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	247	92¢	$227	0xac00e0…
10-06 23:00:47	Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0xa1ca9d…
10-06 22:39:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	83¢	$16	0x00232c…
10-06 22:38:48	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	809	15¢	$123	0x60f9f4…
10-06 22:10:50	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0xd081d5…
10-06 20:27:09	Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	6¢	$1	0x037511…
10-06 20:08:45	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	99	95¢	$94	0x9fa264…
10-06 20:08:09	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	129	95¢	$122	0x4294ae…
10-06 19:52:29	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	13	71¢	$9	0xd6f1ac…
10-06 19:48:24	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x0fdcc6…
10-06 19:46:35	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	345	92¢	$317	0x4060f8…
10-06 19:46:18	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xb8fce5…
10-06 19:40:33	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0xd1d3be…
08-26 20:45:30	Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x357d42…
08-26 20:40:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0x720f8b…
08-26 19:54:18	Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x4fd8c9…
08-26 19:52:49	Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2028?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x8ed87b…
08-26 19:29:12	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	166	48¢	$79	0x52de64…
08-26 19:29:10	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	247	47¢	$116	0xe66ac5…
08-26 18:22:24	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0xf797cb…
08-26 18:19:10	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	238	2¢	$5	0x2c4df9…
08-26 17:12:31	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	81	48¢	$39	0x7dda41…
08-26 15:54:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	135	77¢	$104	0x84fd2e…
08-26 15:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x6e1739…
08-26 15:23:43	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xc15f47…
08-26 15:13:55	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd97b51…
08-26 15:13:51	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0xfe28a4…
08-26 15:13:42	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0x4cec88…
08-26 15:13:00	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	102	48¢	$49	0xc396e1…
08-26 14:54:34	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x6f3622…
08-26 14:54:24	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x606bb4…
08-26 14:22:49	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	32¢	$15	0xfd0517…
08-26 13:50:09	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x66e9c7…
08-26 13:50:00	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	48¢	$12	0x109e18…
08-26 13:44:24	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xfbf07c…
08-26 13:44:16	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x06d62f…
08-26 13:40:58	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x9211ef…
08-26 13:37:15	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa4396c…
08-26 13:32:31	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	48¢	$15	0x85250e…
08-26 12:50:46	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xc78536…
08-26 12:43:33	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	66	13¢	$8	0x70c6b5…
08-26 12:40:39	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	52	48¢	$25	0xce9de6…