(anonymous) 0x474a67…43c816
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Realized P&L
+$119
Unrealized P&L
+$32
Hit rate
40.4%
Resolved
198
Trades
910
lifetime
Volume
$2.04K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$160
19 positions
First seen
2026-03-04
last 11-01 17:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 89 days
Categories
Politics
61% 44% +$253
Other
28% 51% -$216
Sports
6% 56% +$48
Crypto
5% 100% +$34
Tech
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
17 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +49 $26 99¢ $48 +$22 05-19 15:06
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +37 $20 70¢ $25 +$5 10-31 23:46
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +38 $9 50¢ $19 +$10 10-29 13:48
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +31 $20 57¢ $18 -$2 06-18 22:43
Raiders vs. Jets Jets +19 $10 76¢ $14 +$4 10-31 23:47
Eagles vs. Commanders Eagles +33 $10 30¢ $10 $0 10-31 23:46
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +31 $10 26¢ $8 -$2 09-24 12:09
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No +14 $10 48¢ $7 -$3 09-24 21:42
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes +210 $4 2¢ $3 -$1 10-28 17:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +126 $2 2¢ $2 $0 11-01 03:15
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No -1 -$1 94¢ $-1 $0 05-08 23:36
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +1 $1 84¢ $1 +$0 10-29 00:09
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +8 $1 13¢ $1 $0 11-01 17:38
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes -3 -$1 26¢ $-1 $0 05-13 16:42
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No -1 -$1 97¢ $-1 $0 06-04 20:46
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No +1 $0 99¢ $1 +$1 10-08 21:06
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 +$0 05-06 00:24
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No -0 $0 98¢ $-0 $0 08-26 10:41
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +5 $1 0¢ $0 -$1 07-01 20:18