Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$1,613
Trades
181
Unique wallets
55
Liquidity
$10,505
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-07
last 08-04 14:46
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-2.3¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $9
vs crowd: 2% YES on $861)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 13 | $6 | $432 | $426 |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $0 | $355 | $355 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 29 | $12 | $55 | $42 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $9 | $9 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $0 | $116 | $116 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $2 | $19 | $17 |
| Median | 6 | — | $5 | $5 |
| Below median | 17 | $2 | $17 | $15 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | $1 | $66 | $65 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $3 | $3 |
| unranked | 13 | $13 | $604 | $591 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | +367 | $350 | $350 | 4 | 07-14 17:14 |
| Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | +189 | $183 | $183 | 1 | 07-15 21:28 |
| Miserly-Innovation 0xac8f…3bc4 | Yes | +159 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-20 14:28 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +45 | $42 | $42 | 15 | 07-07 11:34 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-15 21:28 |
| Testy-Operator 0x80a4…22cc | No | +25 | $24 | $24 | 1 | 06-26 06:25 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +24 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-17 20:55 |
| Virtual-Ear 0x36b6…e523 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 07-01 07:36 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 8 | 06-26 08:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $7 | 31 | 07-17 09:24 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 3 | 06-26 09:37 |
| Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-01 08:07 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | +2 | $2 | $104 | 17 | 08-01 08:10 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $5 | 3 | 08-04 14:46 |
| Downright-Stot 0x9a1d…8986 | No | +1 | $1 | $5 | 2 | 08-01 08:10 |
| Narrow-Divine 0xbb99…8889 | No | +1 | $1 | $4 | 2 | 06-30 07:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 14:46:12 | (anonymous) 0xab3b…59da | Yes | SELL | 2 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x7f4194… |
| 08-04 14:46:12 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x7f4194… |
| 08-01 08:10:51 | Downright-Stot 0x9a1d…8986 | No | SELL | 2 | 98¢ | $2 | 0x0c768d… |
| 08-01 08:10:51 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 2 | 98¢ | $2 | 0x0c768d… |
| 08-01 08:07:39 | Downright-Stot 0x9a1d…8986 | No | BUY | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x94d5ad… |
| 08-01 08:07:39 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x94d5ad… |
| 07-20 14:28:03 | Miserly-Innovation 0xac8f…3bc4 | Yes | BUY | 159 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x4b29b5… |
| 07-20 14:28:03 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 159 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x4b29b5… |
| 07-17 09:24:10 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3f4a73… |
| 07-17 09:24:10 | (anonymous) 0xab3b…59da | Yes | SELL | 64 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x3f4a73… |
| 07-17 09:24:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 81 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x3f4a73… |
| 07-17 09:24:10 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 159 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x3f4a73… |
| 07-16 08:53:11 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 61 | 98¢ | $60 | 0xfce6a8… |
| 07-16 08:53:11 | (anonymous) 0xab3b…59da | Yes | SELL | 61 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xfce6a8… |
| 07-16 08:53:08 | (anonymous) 0xab3b…59da | Yes | SELL | 32 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x0d6d15… |
| 07-16 08:53:08 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 32 | 98¢ | $31 | 0x0d6d15… |
| 07-16 08:52:38 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 29 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x70f225… |
| 07-16 08:52:38 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 29 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x70f225… |
| 07-16 08:52:38 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xb29499… |
| 07-16 08:52:38 | (anonymous) 0xab3b…59da | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xb29499… |
| 07-15 21:28:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xe6c4b2… |
| 07-15 21:28:58 | Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | BUY | 189 | 97¢ | $183 | 0xe6c4b2… |
| 07-15 21:28:58 | (anonymous) 0xab3b…59da | Yes | BUY | 159 | 3¢ | $5 | 0xe6c4b2… |
| 07-14 17:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x4c2f2d… |
| 07-14 17:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xea1df4… |
| 07-14 17:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xf2a2c7… |
| 07-14 17:14:32 | (anonymous) 0xf41d…5e45 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x4c2f2d… |
| 07-14 17:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x255e…fed1 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xf2a2c7… |
| 07-14 17:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x474a…c816 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xea1df4… |
| 07-14 17:14:31 | (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | BUY | 364 | 95¢ | $348 | 0xa63576… |
| 07-14 17:14:31 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 317 | 95¢ | $302 | 0xa63576… |
| 07-14 17:14:31 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xa63576… |
| 07-13 07:10:56 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 61 | 95¢ | $58 | 0xb02d21… |
| 07-13 07:10:56 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 61 | 95¢ | $58 | 0xb02d21… |
| 07-13 07:10:53 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 51 | 95¢ | $49 | 0x6d6cdd… |
| 07-13 07:10:53 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x6d6cdd… |
| 07-13 07:10:53 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xe02b06… |
| 07-13 07:10:53 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 61 | 95¢ | $58 | 0x6d6cdd… |
| 07-13 07:10:53 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xe02b06… |
| 07-07 11:34:20 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x635873… |
| 07-07 11:34:20 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 3 | 94¢ | $3 | 0x635873… |
| 07-07 11:34:20 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x635873… |
| 07-07 11:34:20 | Rewarding-Alto 0xd3ba…33b9 | No | SELL | 36 | 94¢ | $34 | 0x635873… |
| 07-05 09:28:20 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xe6f9ce… |
| 07-05 09:28:20 | (anonymous) 0xaebd…a26f | No | SELL | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0xe6f9ce… |
| 07-05 09:28:20 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xe6f9ce… |
| 07-04 23:25:46 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 9 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x1689fe… |
| 07-04 23:25:46 | (anonymous) 0xaebd…a26f | No | BUY | 9 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x1689fe… |
| 07-03 05:11:44 | Trim-Tale 0xebbd…9474 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x75f7ac… |
| 07-03 05:11:44 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x75f7ac… |
| 07-03 05:11:26 | True-Cruelty 0xd3ee…bca4 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xe1f528… |
| 07-03 05:11:26 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xe1f528… |
| 07-03 05:11:10 | Fearless-Airship 0xf95c…619a | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x8665e8… |
| 07-03 05:11:10 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x8665e8… |
| 07-03 05:10:49 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x0f2228… |
| 07-03 05:10:49 | Pale-Retouching 0xf64a…f145 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x0f2228… |
| 07-03 05:10:20 | Deadly-Overshoot 0x7ea7…466c | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x9d042a… |
| 07-03 05:10:20 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x9d042a… |
| 07-03 05:10:10 | Nifty-Burn 0xdfc7…b2e8 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x503529… |
| 07-03 05:10:10 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x503529… |
| 07-03 05:09:52 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xb22a18… |
| 07-03 05:09:52 | Yawning-Ocelot 0x4da5…93ff | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xb22a18… |
| 07-02 07:29:16 | Zany-Endoderm 0xfeb7…d12c | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x5de126… |
| 07-02 07:29:16 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x5de126… |
| 07-02 07:23:23 | Coordinated-Try 0x0bbf…3809 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xf53acc… |
| 07-02 07:23:23 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf53acc… |
| 07-02 07:23:01 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x9497a5… |
| 07-02 07:23:01 | Weak-Devastation 0xd2f2…6cec | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x9497a5… |
| 07-02 07:04:40 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x380a09… |
| 07-02 07:04:40 | Innocent-Chairlift 0x303a…2b18 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x380a09… |
| 07-02 04:18:56 | Shimmering-Mare 0x2ae7…2419 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x15054f… |
| 07-02 04:18:56 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x15054f… |
| 07-02 03:53:19 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xb777cc… |
| 07-02 03:53:19 | Double-Gaiters 0x564a…af9b | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xb777cc… |
| 07-02 03:46:59 | Wavy-Barracks 0xadd4…51da | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x71d6ba… |
| 07-02 03:46:59 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x71d6ba… |
| 07-01 07:36:40 | Virtual-Ear 0x36b6…e523 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xf9e446… |
| 07-01 07:36:40 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xf9e446… |
| 07-01 03:08:40 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xe658da… |
| 07-01 03:08:40 | (anonymous) 0x666b…308b | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xe658da… |
| 07-01 03:07:55 | Waterlogged-Fraction 0x8bf9…6a86 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x5cc50e… |
| 07-01 03:07:55 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x5cc50e… |
| 07-01 03:04:58 | Creamy-Birdhouse 0x787a…4229 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x1f500e… |
| 07-01 03:04:58 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x1f500e… |
| 07-01 03:04:16 | Sparse-Opportunist 0xa6b9…bdc8 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xada571… |
| 07-01 03:04:16 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xada571… |
| 07-01 03:03:26 | Sick-Allowance 0xcd84…4f9c | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xf1f48e… |
| 07-01 03:03:26 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf1f48e… |
| 06-30 07:40:02 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x5eb8fb… |
| 06-30 07:40:02 | Narrow-Divine 0xbb99…8889 | No | SELL | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x5eb8fb… |
| 06-30 03:19:43 | Vigilant-Cornflakes 0x145b…8f5c | No | SELL | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x856f0e… |
| 06-30 03:19:43 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x856f0e… |
| 06-30 03:18:20 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0x7699a8… |
| 06-30 03:18:20 | Troubled-Anesthesiologist 0xc94e…55dc | No | SELL | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x7699a8… |
| 06-30 03:11:01 | Granular-Carter 0x787d…cba8 | No | SELL | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x558379… |
| 06-30 03:11:01 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x558379… |
| 06-29 20:06:38 | (anonymous) 0xf41d…5e45 | No | SELL | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0xcd1db4… |
| 06-29 20:06:38 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0xcd1db4… |
| 06-29 20:06:37 | (anonymous) 0x255e…fed1 | No | SELL | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0x2740f2… |
| 06-29 20:06:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0x2740f2… |