Innocent-Chairlift — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

815

lifetime

Volume

$2.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 08-03 06:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

57% 0% $-12

Other

28% 0% $-10

Sports

10% — —

Tech

5% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	39	$132	300	259	+41	open	—	04-06 17:36
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	28	$81	230	170	+60	open	—	04-06 20:22
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	16	$67	96	95	+1	open	—	03-25 16:56
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	18	$52	143	140	+3	open	—	03-23 17:37
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$51	36	35	+1	open	—	03-24 02:52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	13	$44	34	31	+3	open	—	06-21 03:06
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	12	$43	98	98	+0	open	—	07-02 06:56
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	17	$37	101	51	+50	open	—	06-17 17:51
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	9	$31	58	30	+28	Yes	$-10	04-06 20:57
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	10	$30	19	24	-5	open	—	06-17 00:05
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	7	$30	42	40	+2	open	—	04-17 03:11
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	13	$28	40	46	-6	open	—	06-14 22:40
will the us invade iran by march 31	3	$27	16	15	+1	open	—	03-28 10:43
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$27	16	15	+1	open	—	03-22 04:12
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	2	$22	0	22	-22	open	—	06-28 10:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$21	16	15	+1	open	—	03-24 08:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$21	26	25	+1	open	—	03-23 02:17
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	3	$21	16	15	+1	open	—	03-22 17:50
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	5	$20	14	14	+0	open	—	06-10 09:22
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	6	$20	18	18	+0	open	—	06-17 08:39
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	3	$19	16	16	+0	open	—	03-07 15:48
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	6	$19	31	31	+0	open	—	07-02 06:59
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	9	$17	29	29	+0	open	—	06-05 17:10
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	4	$17	36	0	+36	open	—	04-15 01:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$17	0	17	-17	open	—	06-09 07:28
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	6	$16	16	16	+0	open	—	06-19 07:37
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	6	$16	30	30	+0	open	—	07-02 07:01
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	9	$16	11	11	+0	open	—	06-25 14:49
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$16	20	20	+0	open	—	06-08 11:33
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	6	$15	12	12	+0	open	—	06-12 16:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 06:47:02	mlb pit mil 2026 08 03	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x01be92…
07-02 07:07:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xa8aa95…
07-02 07:06:52	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x9de5ab…
07-02 07:05:56	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0xd939a1…
07-02 07:05:02	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x5b333f…
07-02 07:04:40	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x380a09…
07-02 07:03:16	Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0x171867…
07-02 07:02:28	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x48a379…
07-02 07:01:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xc9113a…
07-02 07:01:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	30	25¢	$8	0x2ae7a3…
07-02 07:00:55	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0xf58bf6…
07-02 06:59:11	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	31	25¢	$8	0x2d6bc2…
07-02 06:56:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	98	13¢	$13	0x6c33b9…
07-01 15:11:17	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x271871…
07-01 15:11:14	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xbfdd4f…
07-01 15:11:11	will pete hegseth sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950070	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfe48a9…
07-01 15:11:07	Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xae8c08…
07-01 15:11:01	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0xf695a0…
07-01 15:10:56	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0xcf2002…
07-01 15:10:52	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x92ffd6…
07-01 15:10:50	will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x291312…
07-01 15:10:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xd70b1f…
07-01 15:10:44	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	SELL	7	61¢	$4	0xdae448…
07-01 15:10:41	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x7fc581…
07-01 15:10:32	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	16	79¢	$13	0xc91ff0…
07-01 15:10:31	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0x68622a…
07-01 15:10:28	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0xa3d0c4…
07-01 15:10:26	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	24	10¢	$2	0xbdf91e…
07-01 04:07:26	will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x85a9a2…
06-30 07:36:10	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	SELL	1	46¢	$1	0x9e513a…
06-28 10:38:05	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xefe8cb…
06-28 08:54:32	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xa33ef0…
06-27 20:27:07	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xca40b0…
06-27 17:22:44	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xabea03…
06-27 12:38:17	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x5d3ee6…
06-27 12:38:17	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	No	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x5b3f67…
06-27 12:38:16	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	No	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0xe02929…
06-27 12:38:14	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	No	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xdf5d47…
06-27 12:12:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x4b4534…
06-27 09:06:55	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe32af3…
06-27 07:32:05	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0xf01218…
06-26 09:29:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x7e7d3e…
06-26 08:34:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xbc74a9…
06-26 07:12:56	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x7dcde6…
06-26 06:59:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x465b0a…
06-26 06:06:46	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x4f520c…
06-26 06:04:02	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xe1f359…
06-26 04:05:26	wti up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xec79b9…
06-26 02:38:08	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xfdce0f…
06-26 02:34:13	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xc1e27b…
06-26 02:32:04	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x341ae3…
06-26 01:20:13	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xf3a222…
06-25 19:12:50	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0xee489f…
06-25 17:41:05	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x5e6410…
06-25 16:26:43	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x32c3bb…
06-25 15:01:52	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xcb2f38…
06-25 14:49:26	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x4bb489…
06-25 14:48:37	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x69b916…
06-25 13:37:52	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xd0e951…
06-25 12:04:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xae06b4…
06-25 11:15:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xba9334…
06-25 09:19:29	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xec9229…
06-25 07:36:01	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x7c3838…
06-25 07:32:35	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xfc7d72…
06-25 04:57:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x248b15…
06-25 01:23:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x8a9acc…
06-24 17:42:20	spy closes above 730 on june 24 2026	No	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0x89301f…
06-24 16:12:04	spy closes above 730 on june 24 2026	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xb7da2b…
06-24 14:37:11	spy closes above 725 on june 24 2026	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x731ea1…
06-24 11:52:05	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xc65884…
06-24 11:45:25	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x768ee2…
06-24 10:32:32	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xf171c0…
06-24 09:06:16	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x09c9b1…
06-24 07:44:14	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xfa151e…
06-24 06:06:23	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$1	0x1cbe84…
06-24 02:19:26	Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xb9daae…
06-23 23:24:07	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa68c19…
06-23 23:17:13	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xf7a3ab…
06-23 20:25:08	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xfba399…
06-23 17:44:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xb0d55b…
06-23 13:27:59	will spy dip to 735 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xab3012…
06-23 06:54:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xa1bfab…
06-23 05:31:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 26 2026 20260622191708358	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xbcb1c5…
06-23 04:14:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7e76bb…
06-22 21:32:05	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xd3cf8d…
06-22 15:17:10	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x14f965…
06-22 15:17:05	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x5b1c1a…
06-22 12:39:41	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x1853e0…
06-22 10:15:43	spy closes above 735 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xf17625…
06-22 10:03:59	spy closes above 735 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x862709…
06-22 09:23:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x031796…
06-22 09:21:11	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xb3504a…
06-22 07:59:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xb39378…
06-22 07:58:59	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x11949f…
06-22 00:01:19	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x1beb5a…
06-21 19:51:02	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x73dedd…
06-21 19:42:56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xa27e3d…
06-21 19:37:04	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xf1fd20…
06-21 19:31:14	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x776a94…
06-21 03:08:43	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	28	2¢	$1	0x97f788…