Shimmering-Mare — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

4,678

lifetime

Volume

$18.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 08-12 03:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

46% 0% $-8

Other

35% 0% $-5

Sports

9% 0% $-0

Crypto

5% — —

Tech

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	123	$578	309	309	+0	open	—	03-22 12:45
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	114	$497	280	280	+0	open	—	03-28 14:44
will giannis antetokounmpo not be traded	72	$459	319	319	+0	open	—	02-05 16:55
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	95	$436	245	245	+0	open	—	03-10 08:32
will dtmf be played first at the super bowl halftime show	67	$361	435	435	+0	open	—	02-08 22:48
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	78	$311	248	248	+0	open	—	04-11 22:30
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	80	$310	191	191	+0	open	—	03-13 05:45
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	71	$279	179	179	+0	open	—	03-12 19:23
netanyahu out by march 31 854	59	$272	145	145	+0	open	—	03-15 14:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	52	$254	145	145	+0	open	—	04-08 11:06
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	52	$234	219	209	+10	open	—	02-19 08:15
will the us invade iran by march 31	40	$231	130	130	+0	open	—	03-27 19:14
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	34	$219	141	141	+0	open	—	01-31 23:49
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	40	$218	146	146	+0	open	—	02-24 15:23
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	56	$201	152	152	+0	open	—	03-27 19:20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	30	$199	141	141	+0	open	—	04-12 16:47
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	27	$196	125	135	-10	open	—	02-22 04:49
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	184	$194	2,679	2,679	+0	open	—	02-14 17:00
us strikes iran by february 3 2026	23	$192	110	110	+0	open	—	02-01 09:24
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	61	$190	233	223	+10	open	—	01-31 10:40
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	24	$189	110	110	+0	open	—	02-02 23:30
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	30	$188	150	140	+10	open	—	02-03 19:06
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	21	$176	100	100	+0	open	—	02-01 02:16
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	43	$161	208	189	+19	open	—	02-22 04:55
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	18	$158	86	86	+0	open	—	04-17 15:32
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	20	$154	90	80	+10	open	—	02-19 19:40
will iran strike israel on march 10	31	$147	75	75	+0	open	—	03-14 00:43
will germany strike iran by march 31	32	$146	80	80	+0	open	—	03-04 08:02
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	35	$146	169	149	+20	open	—	02-17 17:51
will there be between 14 and 17 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	43	$143	129	124	+5	open	—	02-28 18:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 03:59:48	lol dnf ns 2026 08 12	DN SOOPers	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x1e5152…
07-02 04:22:58	Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?	No	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0xbb4048…
07-02 04:22:26	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x661db9…
07-02 04:21:05	Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0x81180a…
07-02 04:20:40	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x840f25…
07-02 04:18:56	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x15054f…
07-02 04:17:40	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xd4770f…
07-02 04:14:04	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	20¢	$3	0x24cf4b…
07-02 04:12:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	34	13¢	$4	0x40f5f6…
07-02 04:10:07	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5f0d28…
07-02 04:09:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x1c9f7c…
07-02 04:09:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	13	26¢	$3	0xef0834…
07-02 04:04:10	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	25¢	$8	0x2a50db…
07-02 04:03:40	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x70e50c…
07-01 10:21:52	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb7cea9…
07-01 10:21:50	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2c6bae…
07-01 10:21:49	will pete hegseth sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950070	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x60051e…
07-01 10:21:47	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x0345f5…
07-01 10:21:44	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0xa0440b…
07-01 10:21:44	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x87daac…
07-01 10:21:41	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x5f168d…
07-01 10:21:37	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0xdda323…
07-01 10:21:31	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	No	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xb5d3ee…
07-01 10:21:29	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x1fe681…
07-01 10:21:26	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0x1b2c2b…
07-01 10:21:22	Will Pump.fun reach $0.0034 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xa47a7a…
07-01 10:21:19	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x6108e6…
07-01 10:21:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xf08f64…
07-01 10:21:16	Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x760db8…
07-01 10:21:14	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xb7c9b0…
07-01 10:21:13	Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x041200…
07-01 10:21:11	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$5	0x2b51c3…
07-01 10:21:10	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0xa7915e…
07-01 10:21:07	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	SELL	7	61¢	$4	0x3f3e9c…
07-01 10:21:07	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	6	74¢	$5	0x09d2a4…
07-01 10:21:04	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0xb59965…
07-01 10:21:01	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x125032…
07-01 10:20:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0x6660e0…
07-01 10:20:46	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	24¢	$9	0x272bd0…
07-01 10:13:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x6ceb9d…
06-30 05:52:10	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	SELL	1	41¢	$1	0x673104…
06-28 02:15:50	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	11	61¢	$7	0x792294…
06-27 19:14:59	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x006bf1…
06-27 17:10:26	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x2f71ee…
06-27 15:34:13	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0xfc3b4b…
06-27 14:36:37	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	BUY	9	17¢	$2	0x2d7263…
06-27 14:10:37	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xe8e36f…
06-27 12:45:11	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x71cb42…
06-27 12:42:40	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x640b8f…
06-27 12:38:34	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xb9d37d…
06-27 11:35:05	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xf365a1…
06-27 11:29:43	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	BUY	25	14¢	$4	0x336e14…
06-26 12:29:16	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x438729…
06-26 07:50:46	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc7d97e…
06-25 18:09:43	Will Pump.fun reach $0.0034 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x208c3b…
06-25 16:41:22	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe021a8…
06-25 13:43:53	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe7c47b…
06-25 12:21:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x043d1c…
06-25 09:24:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x655c19…
06-25 06:38:04	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x0412b8…
06-25 04:08:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x6af6e4…
06-25 01:23:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x8a9acc…
06-24 20:57:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x455c3b…
06-24 14:55:41	Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x1a38ac…
06-24 14:52:10	spy closes above 725 on june 24 2026	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x52d791…
06-24 09:13:13	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0xcea7e9…
06-24 07:40:53	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x9bdca9…
06-24 07:36:22	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x7c6c57…
06-23 23:05:23	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x0055aa…
06-23 21:37:56	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x5866f0…
06-23 20:05:19	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xa8f4af…
06-23 17:32:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x325ac4…
06-23 07:08:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xaf9615…
06-23 04:34:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x932c70…
06-22 17:29:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x1b2645…
06-22 13:48:41	spy closes above 745 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x75a648…
06-22 13:33:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x9c4554…
06-22 10:15:43	spy closes above 735 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf17625…
06-22 09:46:37	spy up or down on june 22 2026	Down	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x1b2d42…
06-22 08:19:58	spy up or down on june 22 2026	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2f2f95…
06-22 04:31:16	Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xe9fa1b…
06-22 00:13:37	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xc36d28…
06-21 20:38:10	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x87c7af…
06-21 19:31:14	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x776a94…
06-21 17:52:08	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xd3afe7…
06-21 15:02:50	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xb87dc6…
06-21 13:22:26	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0xc0a04e…
06-21 10:30:25	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd16ad1…
06-21 03:06:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xd9c015…
06-21 03:06:34	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	57	2¢	$1	0x95e1ed…
06-20 21:54:29	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x2fa99d…
06-20 21:11:31	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7cb6b0…
06-20 18:33:41	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 first half team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x3a8498…
06-20 16:29:04	will abbas araghchi attend the us iran signing ceremonywill abbas araghchi attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204723	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xa7c1a1…
06-20 15:36:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x21c414…
06-20 15:25:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa3b00e…
06-20 14:12:16	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x145745…
06-20 12:57:32	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x0382ca…
06-20 06:54:56	Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xe82fa0…
06-20 05:15:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xba66e9…