Scared-Administrator — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.24K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.0%

Resolved

Trades

12,076

lifetime

Volume

$1.59M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$131

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 20:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

52% 71% $-1,069

Other

41% 50% $-167

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

1% 75% $-8

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	79	$25.3K	13,000	13,000	+0	open	—	03-19 17:15
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	163	$17.0K	13,968	8,405	+5,563	open	—	02-28 09:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	78	$16.5K	12,130	9,200	+2,930	open	—	03-03 15:13
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	102	$15.9K	8,448	8,749	-301	open	—	03-30 19:02
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	52	$15.8K	9,100	7,600	+1,500	open	—	03-18 12:12
netanyahu out by march 31 854	57	$15.1K	7,684	7,884	-200	open	—	03-30 09:20
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	80	$15.0K	8,339	8,539	-200	open	—	04-01 09:00
Trump out as President by April 30?	22	$14.8K	7,500	7,500	+0	open	—	04-15 21:26
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	12	$14.4K	7,815	6,658	+1,158	open	—	06-19 14:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	45	$13.8K	10,500	5,300	+5,200	open	—	01-31 19:15
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	29	$13.7K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	05-21 18:13
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	49	$13.6K	11,110	4,110	+7,000	open	—	02-03 21:18
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	40	$13.6K	6,515	7,215	-700	open	—	03-15 19:09
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	69	$13.6K	7,300	6,555	+745	open	—	02-08 20:45
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	23	$13.2K	6,320	7,520	-1,200	open	—	05-26 09:31
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	68	$12.8K	6,860	6,760	+100	open	—	04-22 07:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	60	$12.8K	8,855	4,601	+4,254	open	—	05-29 17:44
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	36	$12.5K	9,900	3,000	+6,900	open	—	03-01 14:12
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	32	$12.1K	6,200	6,200	+0	open	—	01-30 21:57
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	45	$11.9K	5,700	6,400	-700	open	—	04-20 09:55
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$11.9K	12,000	0	+12,000	open	—	06-03 21:41
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	253	$10.3K	7,365	7,275	+90	open	—	03-31 14:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	26	$10.1K	6,300	4,700	+1,600	Yes	$-1,163	05-08 19:29
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	15	$10.0K	4,734	5,400	-666	open	—	06-18 07:45
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	22	$9.5K	4,846	4,846	+0	open	—	03-17 22:16
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	60	$9.5K	7,624	3,200	+4,424	open	—	02-08 20:56
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	42	$9.3K	4,800	4,800	+0	open	—	03-25 18:42
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	27	$9.2K	5,083	5,283	-200	open	—	03-12 10:45
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	34	$9.1K	5,110	5,110	+0	open	—	07-17 05:43
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	15	$9.0K	4,600	4,600	+0	open	—	06-26 12:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 04:39:52	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by december 31	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x7ed3f6…
08-12 02:59:51	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	34¢	$32	0x0ce3ca…
08-11 20:35:16	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x67e73f…
08-11 16:33:07	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x1fb383…
08-11 15:19:07	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	45	25¢	$11	0x3a9ef9…
08-11 14:58:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	210	82¢	$172	0x83552f…
08-11 11:56:51	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	SELL	80	93¢	$75	0xe757dc…
08-11 10:06:07	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	SELL	393	93¢	$367	0xd37147…
08-11 09:49:57	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	210	56¢	$118	0xa036a4…
08-11 09:31:10	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x8f03bb…
08-11 00:20:28	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xfcae1d…
08-11 00:18:36	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	24	91¢	$21	0xdb376d…
08-11 00:18:28	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xafbd85…
08-10 23:44:46	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0x752cb8…
08-10 18:32:12	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	455	97¢	$439	0x2cefb6…
08-10 17:09:54	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	72	91¢	$66	0xa5097a…
08-10 17:09:18	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x15f198…
08-10 16:45:54	will russia capture viroliubivka by december 31	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0xf7bd37…
08-10 14:23:09	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	SELL	300	89¢	$267	0x4660d8…
08-10 11:41:25	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	SELL	18	35¢	$6	0x7017d7…
08-10 11:37:18	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	SELL	137	35¢	$48	0x90fba0…
08-10 11:35:22	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	SELL	65	35¢	$23	0xda6ca4…
08-10 11:29:49	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	SELL	39	35¢	$14	0xd868a4…
08-10 07:47:09	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x23ce38…
08-10 05:39:45	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	38	23¢	$9	0x4823ad…
08-10 05:39:25	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	11	23¢	$3	0x2e1238…
08-10 04:42:28	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	SELL	9	91¢	$9	0x58de92…
08-10 03:53:21	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	65¢	$14	0x27bced…
08-10 03:23:22	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	65¢	$18	0x7dbc15…
08-10 03:20:45	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	140	66¢	$92	0xc91d68…
08-10 03:20:45	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x1fcd20…
08-10 00:43:27	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	110	19¢	$21	0x68fd47…
08-09 20:27:18	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xf705ce…
08-09 20:15:37	Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x04180c…
08-09 18:01:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	610	100¢	$608	0xb94e56…
08-09 17:47:06	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	SELL	142	90¢	$128	0x9a2002…
08-09 15:49:49	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	84	96¢	$81	0xa054ec…
08-09 15:11:00	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	600	95¢	$568	0x6178ee…
08-09 14:13:13	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x815ac0…
08-09 13:47:51	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xca3239…
08-09 11:07:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0x9725e8…
08-09 05:32:13	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x3287a9…
08-09 03:08:13	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	12	61¢	$8	0xa0c656…
08-09 00:58:15	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0xfe0707…
08-08 23:39:18	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x0be477…
08-08 23:13:21	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xf34916…
08-08 22:46:18	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	61	61¢	$37	0xca356e…
08-08 22:02:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	185	81¢	$150	0x0f0b58…
08-08 20:00:48	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x2ddf04…
08-08 19:33:27	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x22853e…
08-08 18:45:55	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	103	61¢	$63	0x83f7bd…
08-08 17:52:48	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	300	92¢	$276	0x32b9c9…
08-08 17:33:45	Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xfd163f…
08-08 17:25:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xb292b0…
08-08 16:50:18	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	1	61¢	$1	0x491b6d…
08-08 16:47:51	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xa6526d…
08-08 15:40:34	Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x7b92c6…
08-08 15:38:25	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	110	68¢	$75	0x62afc0…
08-08 14:05:18	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x54a3e0…
08-08 12:21:07	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	90	93¢	$84	0x33cbe8…
08-08 05:44:45	Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	BUY	28	74¢	$21	0xf50748…
08-07 22:52:34	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x68f0ae…
08-07 21:27:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	420	87¢	$365	0x107460…
08-07 20:50:27	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0x6910e8…
08-07 20:43:45	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	48	88¢	$42	0x517df2…
08-07 20:43:43	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	400	89¢	$356	0xccea74…
08-07 20:40:04	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x427ac0…
08-07 19:45:18	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x89b138…
08-07 19:42:09	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xc7fc42…
08-07 19:37:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	210	86¢	$181	0x7e0220…
08-07 18:09:06	Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x9eb9bb…
08-07 17:52:49	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	95	34¢	$32	0xdc7bad…
08-07 17:02:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	210	97¢	$204	0xb6b02a…
08-07 15:59:46	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0xb12498…
08-07 15:58:00	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	847	99¢	$839	0xce4c67…
08-07 15:35:42	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x319bc1…
08-07 15:35:30	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x42c68f…
08-07 15:15:40	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	45	80¢	$36	0x9221ee…
08-07 15:15:18	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xc76018…
08-07 15:15:06	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	195	81¢	$158	0x1574b1…
08-07 15:12:27	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x2f0dd5…
08-07 15:11:57	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	150	44¢	$66	0x8a4dc6…
08-07 15:10:54	will there be at least 2600 measles cases in the us by august 31 2026	No	BUY	80	35¢	$28	0x9383c1…
08-07 15:10:03	will there be at least 2600 measles cases in the us by august 31 2026	No	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x81c6bf…
08-07 13:18:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	67	82¢	$55	0xde1d5f…
08-07 13:18:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	143	82¢	$117	0x0d04e8…
08-07 13:17:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	210	83¢	$174	0xc49fdd…
08-07 09:16:07	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x160490…
08-07 06:57:06	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xe452b0…
08-07 06:55:55	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0xd8aa70…
08-07 06:54:31	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	No	SELL	31	95¢	$29	0x369fc8…
08-07 06:53:43	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	No	SELL	31	95¢	$29	0xbb3078…
08-07 06:53:31	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0x5f4651…
08-07 06:42:03	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x4176ae…
08-07 00:59:03	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x15b0d4…
08-06 23:04:56	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	210	79¢	$166	0xce33d6…
08-06 21:04:53	will russia capture oleksiievo druzhkivka by december 31 2026 20260706174556071	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x49b811…
08-06 20:50:44	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0x881b19…
08-06 20:20:45	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x7aab69…
08-06 19:14:08	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	410	97¢	$399	0x676d3d…