Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad28…feff58
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$1.24K
Unrealized P&L
-$154
Hit rate
65.0%
Resolved
17
Trades
11,577
lifetime
Volume
$1.52M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$132
Open exposure
$13.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 03:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
52% 71% $-1,069
Other
41% 50% $-167
Tech
6% — —
Crypto
1% 75% $-8
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +3,400 $2,972 92¢ $3.1K +$139 06-30 07:40
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +2,138 $1,549 71¢ $1.5K $-31 07-17 08:40
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,076 $958 89¢ $954 $-4 07-20 21:32
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? No +1,030 $1,072 89¢ $916 $-156 07-21 13:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,040 $801 74¢ $764 $-36 07-18 12:39
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +1,050 $820 71¢ $745 $-75 07-20 07:11
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +583 $473 76¢ $442 $-31 07-16 12:16
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No +500 $391 86¢ $430 +$39 07-19 06:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +720 $527 56¢ $400 $-128 07-07 19:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +400 $384 98¢ $391 +$6 07-13 12:53
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No +534 $335 70¢ $371 +$36 07-20 19:09
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +400 $355 90¢ $358 +$3 07-17 17:57
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +400 $324 76¢ $302 $-22 07-10 01:06
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -334 $-276 86¢ $-286 $-9 07-18 10:13
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +300 $269 90¢ $269 +$0 07-12 10:49
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +448 $301 60¢ $267 $-34 07-17 07:51
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +247 $199 90¢ $223 +$24 07-17 07:51
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No -414 $-222 48¢ $-199 +$23 07-14 12:39
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -210 $-192 90¢ $-188 +$4 07-14 07:43
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No +230 $163 79¢ $182 +$18 07-14 10:27
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +200 $178 90¢ $179 +$1 07-20 09:11
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? No +200 $150 84¢ $168 +$18 07-13 10:56
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $183 56¢ $167 $-16 07-07 15:29
Fed rate hike in 2026? No -410 $-152 38¢ $-156 $-4 07-15 12:37
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +275 $117 56¢ $156 +$39 07-21 14:13
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +188 $136 81¢ $152 +$16 07-11 23:08
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? No +200 $128 76¢ $151 +$23 06-24 11:16
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +152 $140 94¢ $142 +$3 07-20 08:24
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes -200 $-126 71¢ $-142 $-16 06-14 03:14
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +210 $111 62¢ $129 +$18 07-05 03:26