Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad28…feff58
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$1.24K
Unrealized P&L
-$373
Hit rate
65.0%
Resolved
17
Trades
11,600
lifetime
Volume
$1.53M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$132
Open exposure
$13.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-22 18:03
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
52% 71% $-1,069
Other
41% 50% $-167
Tech
6% — —
Crypto
1% 75% $-8
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +3,400 $2,972 92¢ $3.1K +$139 06-30 07:40
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +2,138 $1,549 74¢ $1.6K +$22 07-17 08:40
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,076 $958 89¢ $954 $-4 07-20 21:32
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? No +1,030 $1,072 77¢ $791 $-281 07-21 13:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,040 $801 72¢ $744 $-57 07-18 12:39
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +1,050 $820 66¢ $698 $-122 07-20 07:11
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No +522 $410 86¢ $449 +$39 07-22 17:21
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +583 $473 75¢ $437 $-36 07-16 12:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +400 $384 97¢ $388 +$4 07-13 12:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +720 $527 50¢ $364 $-164 07-07 19:53
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No +534 $335 68¢ $360 +$25 07-20 19:09
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +400 $355 90¢ $358 +$3 07-17 17:57
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -405 $-337 86¢ $-350 $-13 07-21 19:39
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +400 $324 74¢ $298 $-26 07-10 01:06
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +300 $269 90¢ $269 +$0 07-12 10:49
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +300 $264 88¢ $266 +$2 07-21 21:36
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +448 $301 58¢ $262 $-39 07-17 07:51
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +247 $199 90¢ $223 +$24 07-17 07:51
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No +262 $188 78¢ $204 +$16 07-22 18:03
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -210 $-192 90¢ $-190 +$2 07-14 07:43
Trump out as President before 2027? No +200 $174 92¢ $185 +$11 07-22 15:16
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +200 $178 90¢ $179 +$1 07-20 09:11
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? No +200 $150 84¢ $168 +$18 07-13 10:56
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No -414 $-222 40¢ $-168 +$54 07-14 12:39
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $183 52¢ $158 $-26 07-07 15:29
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +188 $136 82¢ $154 +$18 07-11 23:08
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +152 $140 94¢ $142 +$3 07-20 08:24
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? No +200 $128 71¢ $142 +$14 06-24 11:16
Fed rate hike in 2026? No -410 $-152 34¢ $-141 +$10 07-15 12:37
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes -200 $-126 68¢ $-137 $-11 06-14 03:14