Stale-Armoire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.36K

Unrealized P&L

+$280

Hit rate

70.2%

Resolved

13,587

Trades

31,502

lifetime

Volume

$432.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$3.72K

30 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 10-23 18:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 201 days

Categories

Other

80% 66% +$2,784

Politics

18% 59% +$2,721

Tech

1% 48% +$15

Sports

1% 54% -$109

Crypto

0% 50% -$13

Pop-Culture

0% 74% -$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 471 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+391	$306	100¢	$390	+$84	06-06 15:02
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+709	$243	55¢	$386	+$144	10-22 13:10
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+487	$399	72¢	$348	-$51	09-20 12:05
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+319	$267	76¢	$244	-$23	09-16 15:29
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+779	$101	29¢	$222	+$121	09-15 17:49
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+433	$351	46¢	$197	-$154	07-11 16:52
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+162	$109	92¢	$150	+$41	06-23 01:50
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	+151	$62	94¢	$143	+$81	06-26 11:15
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+183	$110	74¢	$134	+$24	08-11 12:05
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+250	$100	46¢	$114	+$14	10-01 15:09
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+170	$73	66¢	$113	+$40	06-25 16:15
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	+180	$123	62¢	$111	-$12	07-30 19:17
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+434	$100	26¢	$111	+$11	10-15 01:14
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+120	$94	92¢	$110	+$15	07-21 05:28
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	+106	$100	100¢	$106	+$6	10-23 13:18
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+270	$190	38¢	$102	-$88	07-25 18:19
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+91	$79	90¢	$82	+$3	07-19 03:58
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+303	$100	24¢	$72	-$28	09-13 11:22
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	+70	$61	98¢	$69	+$8	07-20 04:18
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+80	$65	81¢	$65	$0	06-28 16:28
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+70	$59	88¢	$62	+$3	06-13 00:34
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	No	+80	$71	76¢	$61	-$10	08-11 09:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+60	$36	88¢	$53	+$18	08-11 15:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	+53	$49	100¢	$53	+$4	10-23 07:24
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	+50	$43	90¢	$45	+$2	07-31 20:37
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+40	$34	98¢	$39	+$5	06-02 15:27
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	+40	$34	97¢	$39	+$5	08-01 12:21
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	+40	$34	93¢	$37	+$4	08-11 07:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+40	$31	83¢	$33	+$2	08-11 22:10
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	+40	$20	82¢	$33	+$13	07-19 18:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	172	$4.4K	2,832	2,792	+40	open	—	08-11 22:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	116	$3.3K	2,148	2,168	-20	No	+$261	06-20 19:41
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	73	$1.7K	1,341	1,141	+200	Yes	-$35	06-14 10:57
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	50	$1.6K	987	997	-10	open	—	07-19 14:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	79	$1.5K	1,289	1,289	+0	No	-$9	07-11 22:59
will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	45	$1.4K	788	788	-0	No	+$75	06-25 20:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	92	$1.4K	1,005	820	+186	No	+$62	05-29 14:47
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	29	$1.4K	3,148	40	+3,108	No	+$748	10-22 22:25
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	105	$1.3K	1,452	396	+1,056	No	+$325	08-11 15:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	82	$1.3K	870	870	+0	No	+$54	05-29 11:46
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	49	$1.2K	824	577	+247	No	+$45	07-26 23:28
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	52	$1.2K	900	900	+0	No	-$27	07-03 14:29
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	14	$1.1K	3,990	0	+3,990	Yes	+$2,058	10-22 20:45
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	37	$1.0K	647	647	+0	No	+$32	05-29 16:17
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	45	$939	780	800	-20	open	—	07-21 22:07
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	30	$932	548	548	+0	No	+$123	06-18 22:36
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	98	$928	1,692	586	+1,106	Yes	-$460	08-11 20:00
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	36	$926	533	532	+1	No	+$26	06-27 17:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	57	$919	913	404	+509	No	+$129	05-29 07:34
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	45	$851	757	768	-11	No	-$207	06-18 16:05
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	9	$825	2,600	0	+2,600	Yes	+$152	09-14 13:57
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	27	$800	495	406	+89	No	+$28	05-23 07:36
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	24	$787	470	438	+32	open	—	07-19 21:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	64	$751	835	160	+675	No	+$152	05-27 16:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	40	$740	451	430	+21	No	+$24	05-25 07:19
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	26	$710	436	469	-33	No	+$37	06-10 22:02
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	22	$693	400	400	+0	No	+$3	06-24 16:03
Iran leadership change by December 31?	33	$679	458	458	+0	open	—	08-09 11:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	88	$674	1,355	1,295	+60	open	—	08-11 15:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	49	$668	694	694	+0	Yes	-$43	06-14 18:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 18:02:05	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 24?	No	BUY	72	33¢	$24	0xcb7956…
10-23 17:51:45	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on October 23?	No	BUY	110	83¢	$92	0xa5adee…
10-23 17:41:15	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xcfdbdb…
10-23 17:31:44	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xfc017a…
10-23 17:26:53	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on October 23?	No	BUY	81	85¢	$69	0xd01722…
10-23 16:57:06	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 24?	No	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x58ca4e…
10-23 16:46:54	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 24?	No	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0x73e863…
10-23 16:46:21	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	199	14¢	$28	0xbb43af…
10-23 16:42:27	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x365f56…
10-23 16:40:53	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 24?	No	BUY	22	41¢	$9	0x1e1960…
10-23 16:37:17	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 24?	No	BUY	108	43¢	$46	0x98ba5c…
10-23 16:35:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 24?	No	BUY	63	93¢	$59	0x01689e…
10-23 16:31:59	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 24?	No	BUY	53	74¢	$39	0xa5c631…
10-23 16:16:50	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on October 25?	No	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xd3977b…
10-23 15:41:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 25?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x33bc4c…
10-23 15:40:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xa49bd0…
10-23 15:35:47	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	892	6¢	$54	0xee40ef…
10-23 15:27:56	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0xf09042…
10-23 14:56:33	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 24?	No	BUY	54	90¢	$49	0x422cde…
10-23 14:21:56	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x63f5cd…
10-23 14:15:00	Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on October 24?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xaff43e…
10-23 14:11:41	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xbee92c…
10-23 14:11:36	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $52 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x5e81d7…
10-23 14:05:21	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 23?	No	BUY	48	67¢	$32	0xd7add8…
10-23 14:04:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0xa216e6…
10-23 14:02:15	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	121	82¢	$99	0x666fb1…
10-23 13:59:18	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $148 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0xd24f6b…
10-23 13:18:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xa19bc2…
10-23 13:16:33	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 23?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x5e1933…
10-23 13:11:36	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x9525c7…
10-23 13:11:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	35	45¢	$16	0x50942c…
10-23 13:06:48	Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0xe57a9d…
10-23 12:29:03	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on October 24?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x11b20e…
10-23 10:46:45	Will Matúš Vallo win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x1bb08e…
10-23 10:11:15	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on October 24?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0xcb3075…
10-23 09:51:29	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on October 23?	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0xdcf3b0…
10-23 09:41:42	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 23?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x914540…
10-23 08:34:24	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	141	57¢	$81	0x7ab1c8…
10-23 07:36:50	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 23?	No	BUY	25	78¢	$20	0x73edf0…
10-23 07:30:23	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 23?	No	BUY	76	7¢	$5	0xa7cb91…
10-23 07:24:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	53	93¢	$49	0x6129fc…
10-23 06:41:23	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x89c43d…
10-23 06:23:47	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x52ee73…
10-23 05:51:23	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0xc2689c…
10-23 04:16:27	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 24?	No	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0xa97770…
10-23 02:51:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 23?	No	BUY	41	19¢	$8	0x21d271…
10-23 02:31:23	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 24?	No	BUY	125	35¢	$44	0x77c9d8…
10-23 02:26:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 24?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xab4614…
10-23 02:10:45	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on October 24?	No	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0xdbc531…
10-23 01:56:02	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	175	20¢	$35	0x2fbdb7…
10-23 01:10:35	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 23?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xba2458…
10-23 01:06:35	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 24?	No	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0x452e65…
10-23 00:50:38	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 24?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0xbd06d7…
10-23 00:03:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 23?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x18e18b…
10-23 00:01:30	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 23?	No	BUY	16	84¢	$13	0x94d350…
10-22 23:13:00	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 3°C or below on October 24?	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x600970…
10-22 23:09:23	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	245	10¢	$24	0xbee7a3…
10-22 22:25:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	290	23¢	$68	0x469f12…
10-22 22:18:32	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	40¢	$10	0xe7c4b4…
10-22 22:15:50	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 24?	No	BUY	56	63¢	$35	0xe8379e…
10-22 21:49:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 23?	No	BUY	55	60¢	$33	0x740c65…
10-22 21:37:12	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 23?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xf87003…
10-22 21:12:12	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on October 24?	No	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x8c6bdc…
10-22 20:47:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on October 23?	No	BUY	35	93¢	$33	0x2ece68…
10-22 20:45:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x688847…
10-22 20:43:54	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on October 23?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x11c2ba…
10-22 19:40:47	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $147 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	322	31¢	$100	0xfa1b6c…
10-22 19:30:38	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	27	57¢	$15	0x9839a3…
10-22 19:20:21	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xf3c815…
10-22 18:55:06	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	37	58¢	$21	0xeabfa9…
10-22 18:15:08	Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	60	56¢	$34	0x556217…
10-22 17:23:08	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0xae101e…
10-22 17:14:59	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 8°C on October 23?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x3c1d44…
10-22 17:14:54	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 24?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xb2dbe2…
10-22 17:10:06	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on October 23?	No	BUY	24	56¢	$13	0x327737…
10-22 17:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 23?	No	BUY	37	45¢	$17	0xc940ef…
10-22 16:46:02	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 24?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xcf3c1a…
10-22 16:45:38	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 22?	Yes	BUY	48	24¢	$12	0x4f1228…
10-22 16:41:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xcaabd4…
10-22 14:50:32	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 22?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$13	0xffaade…
10-22 14:48:20	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x29e40f…
10-22 14:43:51	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x1fc828…
10-22 14:42:23	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 23?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x4f2ed7…
10-22 14:40:12	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on October 23?	No	BUY	36	74¢	$27	0x9fc43d…
10-22 13:14:42	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0x90d6f0…
10-22 13:10:11	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0xda50ed…
10-22 12:44:54	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0x189ece…
10-22 12:42:05	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $54 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	36¢	$12	0x5ef25a…
10-22 11:29:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 22?	No	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0x5f221c…
10-22 11:09:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	29	10¢	$3	0x703722…
10-22 10:41:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 23?	No	BUY	166	60¢	$100	0x54294a…
10-22 09:34:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x63e087…
10-22 09:24:47	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 23?	No	BUY	42	92¢	$39	0x11034e…
10-22 08:55:23	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on October 23?	No	BUY	140	71¢	$99	0x79f1d7…
10-22 08:40:56	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 23?	No	BUY	133	68¢	$90	0x2011af…
10-22 08:30:18	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 23?	No	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x64ee29…
10-22 08:09:06	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 23?	No	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x28e7f9…
10-22 08:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 23?	No	BUY	75	72¢	$54	0x6132b7…
10-22 08:04:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 23?	No	BUY	23	67¢	$15	0xbac000…
10-22 08:04:42	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x4e9740…