Stale-Armoire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$111

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.4%

Resolved

Trades

7,957

lifetime

Volume

$98.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 08-11 06:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

51% 57% $-5

Politics

45% 50% $-106

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 125 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	99	$2.9K	1,802	1,842	-40	open	—	08-09 19:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	60	$2.5K	1,288	1,738	-450	open	—	06-20 19:41
will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	44	$1.4K	787	788	-1	open	—	06-25 20:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	89	$1.4K	945	820	+126	open	—	05-29 14:47
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	27	$1.3K	560	977	-417	open	—	07-19 14:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	59	$1.2K	1,026	962	+64	open	—	07-11 22:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	45	$1.2K	925	761	+164	open	—	06-14 10:57
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	78	$1.2K	824	855	-32	open	—	05-29 11:46
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	48	$1.1K	819	900	-80	open	—	07-03 14:29
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	35	$929	647	494	+153	open	—	05-29 16:17
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	55	$902	872	404	+468	open	—	05-29 07:34
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	34	$893	493	532	-39	open	—	06-27 17:28
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	26	$881	468	548	-80	open	—	06-18 22:36
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	38	$861	660	770	-110	open	—	07-21 22:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	64	$751	835	160	+675	open	—	05-27 16:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	40	$740	451	430	+21	open	—	05-25 07:19
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	22	$693	400	400	+0	open	—	06-24 16:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	34	$646	593	653	-60	open	—	06-18 16:05
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	30	$643	420	341	+79	open	—	05-29 15:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	24	$568	380	380	+0	open	—	05-25 22:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	77	$553	1,195	1,135	+60	open	—	08-11 07:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	25	$532	290	300	-10	open	—	05-29 16:17
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	30	$528	533	533	-0	open	—	06-14 18:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	21	$463	305	305	+0	open	—	07-25 19:25
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	34	$456	581	200	+381	open	—	08-10 02:52
Iran leadership change by December 31?	20	$449	280	300	-20	open	—	08-09 11:39
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	11	$446	160	390	-230	open	—	06-21 17:12
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	32	$441	437	246	+191	open	—	06-17 13:47
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?	15	$435	241	232	+9	open	—	05-28 16:14
iran closes its airspace by june 15	23	$429	240	255	-16	open	—	06-07 03:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 12:03:12	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x13edfe…
08-11 11:27:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc197d3…
08-11 11:27:15	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	No	SELL	18	77¢	$14	0x412c26…
08-11 11:23:52	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x4abc66…
08-11 11:03:31	will pltr dip to 168 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x5df19c…
08-11 11:03:25	will pltr dip to 168 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xd842f3…
08-11 10:50:58	will ewy dip to 161 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xfb6b75…
08-11 09:38:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0xa2cdfc…
08-11 09:28:45	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x055dc3…
08-11 09:28:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x5b4c91…
08-11 09:25:24	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x2caef7…
08-11 09:23:48	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x461af2…
08-11 07:53:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x3800ac…
08-11 07:42:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x809020…
08-11 07:33:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xfe8b9f…
08-11 07:01:58	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506 211	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x0814cf…
08-11 06:44:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xbeaf0c…
08-11 06:23:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x44ca89…
08-11 06:23:01	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x63d7a6…
08-11 06:08:27	will spy reach 790 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	24	85¢	$20	0xf6c9f3…
08-11 05:53:12	will xauusd reach 4500 in august 2026	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x734168…
08-11 05:53:10	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long 20260807064756492	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xfe00b4…
08-11 05:53:10	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long 20260807064756492	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xbe68a1…
08-11 04:52:33	will lambdas valuation hit high 10b by december 31	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x0acd64…
08-11 04:52:31	will lambdas valuation hit high 10b by december 31	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x87b72a…
08-11 04:48:22	will lambdas valuation hit high 10b by december 31	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x128aa2…
08-11 03:57:58	will meta dip to 580 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xead761…
08-11 03:42:09	will meta dip to 580 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0x250972…
08-11 03:36:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x1eff39…
08-11 03:20:42	will meta dip to 580 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x397291…
08-11 03:08:01	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x085965…
08-11 03:07:57	will meta dip to 580 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	1	49¢	$1	0x970a68…
08-11 03:06:25	will meta dip to 580 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x86f5fa…
08-11 03:05:22	will meta dip to 580 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xbeb4bb…
08-11 03:03:07	will meta dip to 580 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x4f71c9…
08-11 03:03:04	will meta dip to 580 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x2027ca…
08-11 02:02:49	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x1f7c30…
08-11 01:36:01	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	SELL	13	75¢	$10	0xc311b0…
08-11 01:32:09	will ewy dip to 161 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xf4ef63…
08-11 01:24:42	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x1065a4…
08-11 01:12:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xbe6ac7…
08-11 00:37:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x6b719d…
08-11 00:27:42	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x0da518…
08-10 23:06:37	will tsla reach 375 in august 2026	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x21ff5b…
08-10 22:56:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	41	14¢	$6	0xc98013…
08-10 22:47:43	will meta reach 620 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	2	69¢	$2	0x8ec805…
08-10 22:47:43	will meta reach 620 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x1976b2…
08-10 22:47:31	will meta reach 620 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x9e805b…
08-10 22:30:37	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x19d37a…
08-10 22:22:46	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506 211	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xb18211…
08-10 22:17:42	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x7e2df5…
08-10 22:02:21	will abnb dip to 168 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0x0c20b1…
08-10 20:27:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xf77ed8…
08-10 19:47:27	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x9e2456…
08-10 19:11:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x3cee62…
08-10 18:57:00	will meta dip to 580 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xced572…
08-10 18:45:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x65e7b3…
08-10 18:37:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x95f1bc…
08-10 18:37:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x0049c6…
08-10 18:34:22	will spy reach 790 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0x7a864e…
08-10 18:16:55	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xe983cf…
08-10 17:55:01	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0xb759a5…
08-10 17:40:18	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	40	76¢	$30	0xe17f11…
08-10 17:17:48	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xcf8131…
08-10 16:39:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	60	66¢	$40	0xe2cbfc…
08-10 16:12:33	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xd9625f…
08-10 16:07:31	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x9f00ee…
08-10 15:17:33	isl1 frr krr 2026 08 10 btts	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x25fb48…
08-10 13:59:36	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by september 30 20260728195821515	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xf535bd…
08-10 13:58:48	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0x3e3a36…
08-10 13:58:46	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xc4e6c9…
08-10 13:07:37	will meta reach 620 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xd3c0a4…
08-10 12:49:07	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x989aba…
08-10 12:33:03	will tsla reach 375 in august 2026	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xc2c353…
08-10 12:31:52	swe vas dju 2026 08 10 btts	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x64f211…
08-10 12:31:51	swe vas dju 2026 08 10 btts	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x4f6adb…
08-10 12:26:49	will spy reach 790 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xafd6a3…
08-10 12:23:42	will xauusd reach 4600 in august 2026	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xd881ed…
08-10 12:17:21	nor2 mfk odd 2026 08 10 btts	No	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0xb80f1b…
08-10 11:51:58	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xeee4e4…
08-10 11:40:07	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xed09c4…
08-10 10:59:09	will xauusd reach 4500 in august 2026	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x6355ed…
08-10 10:35:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xa53612…
08-10 10:17:16	will russia capture novyi donbas by october 31 20260724163321936	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x925883…
08-10 10:04:42	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xe24246…
08-10 09:44:13	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x044966…
08-10 09:25:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0x273183…
08-10 09:13:09	will ethereum dip to 1600 in august 2026	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x797bd2…
08-10 09:11:52	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x18af61…
08-10 09:05:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	11	46¢	$5	0x46e83b…
08-10 08:57:27	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x9a18fb…
08-10 08:52:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x5438b5…
08-10 08:52:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x2d4b80…
08-10 08:52:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x06a041…
08-10 08:36:54	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xe6e333…
08-10 08:32:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x400df6…
08-10 08:32:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xc8a8d8…
08-10 08:26:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x9470c1…
08-10 08:23:22	will marjorie taylor greene announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241673	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xa6ba17…
08-10 08:18:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xe2983d…