Stale-Armoire 0xca1f9b…ccd282
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← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$111
Unrealized P&L
+$101
Hit rate
60.4%
Resolved
52
Trades
7,175
lifetime
Volume
$89.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$1.74K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-06
last 07-21 11:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Other
51% 57% $-5
Politics
46% 50% $-106
Tech
3% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Sports
0% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 125 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -417 $-342 88¢ $-365 $-23 07-19 14:17
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No -130 $-108 86¢ $-111 $-3 07-19 23:22
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +100 $86 94¢ $94 +$9 06-10 00:01
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No +180 $90 50¢ $89 $-1 06-04 18:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -100 $-71 82¢ $-83 $-12 07-19 12:46
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -89 $-90 90¢ $-80 +$10 07-03 15:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +97 $74 72¢ $70 $-3 06-13 00:43
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +80 $55 86¢ $69 +$14 07-20 02:06
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No +80 $63 82¢ $65 +$2 07-19 10:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +64 $25 99¢ $63 +$38 07-11 22:59
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -70 $-59 90¢ $-63 $-4 07-20 04:56
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No +131 $51 45¢ $59 +$7 06-26 11:15
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? No -50 $-48 96¢ $-48 +$0 06-08 05:01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -50 $-42 88¢ $-44 $-2 07-19 16:55
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No -40 $-39 98¢ $-39 $-1 06-16 09:23
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -40 $-37 94¢ $-37 $-0 06-19 08:07
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +40 $35 91¢ $36 +$1 06-01 07:23
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No -40 $-40 90¢ $-36 +$4 07-19 14:18
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +40 $26 76¢ $31 +$5 07-01 05:56
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No -60 $-24 48¢ $-28 $-4 06-26 02:17
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +43 $31 66¢ $28 $-3 06-15 07:11
New pandemic in 2026? No -30 $-28 94¢ $-28 $-0 07-07 07:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -60 $-12 46¢ $-27 $-15 07-20 05:48
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No -40 $-25 60¢ $-24 +$1 07-19 22:18
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No -30 $-20 78¢ $-23 $-3 07-19 13:48
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -29 $-46 78¢ $-22 +$24 06-24 12:32
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No +40 $20 50¢ $20 $-0 06-22 22:39
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -30 $-76 66¢ $-20 +$56 07-20 12:02
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -20 $-21 92¢ $-18 +$3 07-03 05:56
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No +20 $18 92¢ $18 +$1 06-26 23:02