Beautiful-Thistle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.53K

Unrealized P&L

+$427

Hit rate

84.7%

Resolved

293

Trades

5,336

lifetime

Volume

$399.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

$7.83K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 19:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

88% 89% +$6,531

Sports

10% 93% +$72

Politics

2% 70% -$69

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	+20,017	$6,292	18¢	$3.7K	-$2,589	10-29 19:44
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	+2,232	$1,911	98¢	$2.2K	+$273	10-28 13:53
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	-646	-$601	92¢	$-595	+$6	10-02 22:46
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	-552	-$584	95¢	$-525	+$59	10-07 03:29
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	+422	-$9	80¢	$340	+$349	10-23 12:06
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+694	$423	32¢	$226	-$197	10-22 06:57
Blue tsunami in 2026?	No	+300	$137	40¢	$120	-$17	10-21 14:22
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	-3,366	-$2,541	2¢	$-72	+$2,468	09-27 08:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+200	$20	24¢	$49	+$29	10-29 17:53
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	+19	-$27	99¢	$19	+$46	10-28 14:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kash Patel out by December 31?	459	$19.8K	41,129	21,112	+20,017	open	—	10-29 19:44
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	333	$13.6K	17,753	14,805	+2,948	Yes	-$2,163	09-17 15:55
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	168	$12.0K	9,280	10,414	-1,134	open	—	10-28 13:53
kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	93	$10.0K	5,892	4,776	+1,116	No	+$116	07-26 19:34
will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 239	101	$9.4K	7,126	7,206	-80	Yes	-$19	02-25 19:08
will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 495 233 864 361	8	$9.3K	6,926	2,412	+4,515	No	+$13	03-31 09:43
will there be at least 300 measles cases in the us by january 31 2026	29	$7.9K	6,603	1,395	+5,208	Yes	+$74	01-23 13:39
Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	12	$7.8K	7,978	94	+7,884	Yes	+$110	04-24 13:44
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	127	$7.8K	7,388	2,770	+4,618	No	+$381	05-30 11:31
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	120	$7.7K	5,835	6,030	-194	No	+$1,626	04-29 22:50
will there be at least 800 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	26	$7.7K	6,711	1,092	+5,619	Yes	+$86	02-13 16:38
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	90	$7.7K	4,721	4,299	+422	open	—	10-23 12:06
will there be at least 1100 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 285 136	94	$7.3K	5,386	6,066	-679	Yes	+$799	02-27 15:05
will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255	121	$6.8K	19,233	22,945	-3,713	No	-$1,141	03-04 07:31
will there be at least 1200 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 152 495 466 979 817	82	$6.8K	6,056	2,816	+3,240	No	+$1,535	02-26 19:22
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes 328 877	6	$6.7K	3,372	3,418	-46	Yes	+$41	01-25 04:24
will there be at least 400 measles cases in the us by january 31 2026	45	$6.1K	5,107	1,280	+3,827	Yes	+$201	01-23 13:51
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	168	$5.9K	8,121	6,985	+1,136	open	—	10-29 13:22
will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260630182145718 274 457	80	$5.6K	6,212	1,492	+4,720	No	+$619	07-31 12:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	41	$5.3K	3,100	3,100	+0	Yes	+$245	10-28 18:25
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	155	$5.1K	60,630	57,475	+3,154	No	-$1,080	01-21 16:00
will there be at least 200 measles cases in the us by january 31 2026	31	$5.1K	2,184	2,990	-806	Yes	+$27	01-23 09:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	53	$4.9K	3,628	2,937	+692	Yes	+$233	07-29 17:01
Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	2	$4.4K	4,413	0	+4,413	No	+$19	05-03 21:21
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	18	$4.3K	4,133	354	+3,779	No	+$191	04-30 08:28
will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 696 531 583 497	25	$4.2K	4,109	465	+3,645	No	+$206	03-28 17:10
will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026	10	$4.1K	4,190	225	+3,965	Yes	+$17	03-27 13:56
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	18	$4.1K	2,122	2,122	+0	Yes	+$71	01-21 09:27
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	6	$3.9K	1,973	1,973	+0	Yes	+$4	01-22 10:15
f1 chinese grand prix sprint qualifying pole winner charles leclerc 2026 03 13	2	$3.8K	3,842	0	+3,842	No	+$4	03-13 08:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 19:44:30	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x6d616f…
10-29 19:44:16	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xb45a24…
10-29 17:55:40	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xe669d0…
10-29 17:53:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	21¢	$42	0x13b39f…
10-29 17:46:46	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	80	71¢	$57	0x1aff98…
10-29 17:31:59	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xa94d0b…
10-29 17:31:05	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x7b831c…
10-29 17:26:34	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x2b666d…
10-29 16:41:55	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	300	17¢	$51	0xcadecd…
10-29 16:40:55	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	18¢	$5	0xb74595…
10-29 16:02:43	Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	199	47¢	$94	0xa699af…
10-29 16:02:23	Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	75	53¢	$40	0xc1df18…
10-29 15:46:07	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	313	73¢	$228	0x767ce2…
10-29 15:43:56	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	80	71¢	$57	0x87a894…
10-29 15:43:46	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$147	0xd6058c…
10-29 15:13:13	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x45192d…
10-29 15:09:43	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xd1fc05…
10-29 15:09:43	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0xa6a93e…
10-29 15:09:41	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x3b22cf…
10-29 13:22:08	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x5b82f4…
10-29 13:22:07	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0xfdea43…
10-29 13:22:07	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	150	26¢	$39	0xced24d…
10-29 13:22:07	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	44	24¢	$10	0x344f88…
10-29 11:15:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	350	21¢	$74	0xfda97f…
10-29 10:54:11	Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	4¢	$2	0xe6c533…
10-29 10:53:01	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x54a0ee…
10-29 10:51:40	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	55	26¢	$14	0xd494d3…
10-29 10:51:02	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	1,073	26¢	$279	0xecd261…
10-29 10:49:53	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	345	90¢	$309	0x743370…
10-29 09:02:16	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	177	25¢	$44	0x144153…
10-29 08:39:17	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xa788fb…
10-29 08:39:16	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x1619f3…
10-29 04:26:56	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x8a4e56…
10-29 04:26:22	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xc2ac30…
10-29 02:38:02	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0x129340…
10-29 02:20:08	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xba0a82…
10-28 20:28:07	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xd628f1…
10-28 20:27:56	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xb8986a…
10-28 20:27:56	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$9	0x5462d4…
10-28 20:21:22	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	32	76¢	$25	0xe73e0f…
10-28 20:21:22	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0xa71f16…
10-28 19:57:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	69	14¢	$10	0x9616ea…
10-28 19:57:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x850a8e…
10-28 19:57:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x658080…
10-28 18:34:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	90	14¢	$13	0xd20833…
10-28 18:34:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0xbef1a8…
10-28 18:32:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0xfb871e…
10-28 18:25:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,900	100¢	$1,898	0x1cd763…
10-28 18:21:56	Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	164	64¢	$105	0x3c2657…
10-28 18:06:41	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0xba9b5a…
10-28 16:38:37	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x1ed9f0…
10-28 16:07:34	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x579d71…
10-28 15:48:34	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	89¢	$20	0xc83194…
10-28 15:42:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0xbe33af…
10-28 14:52:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xdb45bd…
10-28 14:49:47	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0xdb8213…
10-28 14:49:47	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x0d3be6…
10-28 14:38:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xe2eafa…
10-28 14:32:31	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	94¢	$74	0xf79a51…
10-28 14:23:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x61254d…
10-28 14:21:10	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xfaed99…
10-28 14:21:02	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	70	19¢	$13	0x973bc8…
10-28 14:21:02	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x2183a1…
10-28 14:01:11	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x559b48…
10-28 14:00:29	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	91¢	$266	0x5b9430…
10-28 14:00:04	Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	SELL	290	98¢	$284	0x80b233…
10-28 13:58:38	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	700	23¢	$161	0xc00df6…
10-28 13:55:50	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	325	81¢	$263	0x9635ea…
10-28 13:53:02	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	SELL	550	97¢	$535	0x630f70…
10-28 13:52:16	Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	99¢	$127	0x0c3416…
10-28 13:48:44	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0x1d7a56…
10-28 13:48:34	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	19¢	$8	0xddd3f9…
10-28 12:39:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x4609a9…
10-28 12:11:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x253926…
10-28 12:04:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xe2947b…
10-28 10:26:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x951714…
10-28 10:22:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xdda57c…
10-28 09:56:47	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0x00a679…
10-28 09:43:34	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0x7c69fa…
10-28 09:36:32	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	72	81¢	$58	0x5cbf86…
10-28 09:36:08	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$49	0xeba0a4…
10-28 09:33:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	175	95¢	$166	0xa42c97…
10-28 09:32:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5d26dd…
10-28 09:19:11	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x81ab37…
10-28 09:10:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x538e45…
10-28 09:00:58	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	18¢	$15	0x290958…
10-28 09:00:19	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x382552…
10-28 08:33:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x27d71b…
10-28 08:33:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x9d5e90…
10-28 04:56:50	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xb33793…
10-28 00:26:30	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x90a7ee…
10-27 22:55:33	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xa1b118…
10-27 19:18:12	Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x25ffd4…
10-27 17:16:14	Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb8d987…
10-27 17:14:56	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	95	25¢	$24	0x3234ca…
10-27 11:44:14	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0xe39d11…
10-27 11:44:06	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xf3419b…
10-27 11:43:56	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x24f940…
10-27 11:43:50	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0xd6e5a7…
10-27 11:43:50	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x9cc384…