Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$6,110
$22 in 24h
Trades
339
Unique wallets
78
Liquidity
$3,149
Latest YES mid
16¢
Latest NO mid
84¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-08 18:45
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 12 | $76 | $1.1K | $1.0K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 18 | $100 | $755 | $655 |
| 🐟 Fish | 22 | $53 | $463 | $410 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 26 | $66 | $157 | $91 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 9 | $56 | $13 | +$43 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 7 | $26 | $271 | $244 |
| Median | 5 | $1 | $18 | $17 |
| Below median | 6 | $29 | $124 | $95 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $48 | $34 | +$14 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 8 | $31 | $883 | $852 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 6 | $8 | $177 | $169 |
| unranked | 29 | $97 | $964 | $867 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | +900 | $735 | $735 | 8 | 06-21 18:26 |
| albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | +118 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 05-31 09:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xd0de…370d | Yes | +101 | $18 | $18 | 3 | 06-21 07:59 |
| Key-Finding 0xa9f2…6c8e | No | +70 | $58 | $58 | 2 | 07-08 18:45 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +69 | $58 | $58 | 2 | 07-04 22:59 |
| Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | +69 | $57 | $57 | 1 | 07-01 23:51 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | +55 | $9 | $9 | 8 | 07-06 03:51 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +52 | $43 | $43 | 3 | 06-21 08:27 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +50 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-11 05:28 |
| Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | +40 | $31 | $197 | 37 | 07-07 11:00 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +37 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 06-17 02:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | +25 | $21 | $21 | 1 | 06-20 08:58 |
| Melodic-Portion 0x772d…0deb | No | +24 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-31 04:46 |
| Stale-Armoire 0xca1f…d282 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 07-07 11:04 |
| Chilly-Ravioli 0xb7c4…be7b | Yes | +14 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-15 21:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x3413…d913 | Yes | +13 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-24 14:30 |
| Gripping-Dungarees 0xf7cc…2506 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-02 19:08 |
| Sick-Keyboarding 0xc90b…1638 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-24 01:07 |
| Merry-Entry 0x69d7…c25c | Yes | +11 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-08 00:06 |
| Adept-Comfortable 0xf0fc…d716 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 11:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b72…a958 | Yes | +9 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-05 04:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ecf…c85d | Yes | +9 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-05 04:01 |
| Subdued-Ascot 0x0637…1e31 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 20:23 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-15 10:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf19…b4a8 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-11 13:38 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf19…b4a8 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-11 13:38 |
| Rowdy-Yang 0xcd96…11a3 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-07 11:00 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 18:45:34 | Key-Finding 0xa9f2…6c8e | No | BUY | 60 | 84¢ | $50 | 0x271e26… |
| 07-08 18:45:34 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 60 | 84¢ | $50 | 0x271e26… |
| 07-08 00:06:28 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 11 | 82¢ | $9 | 0x4cb66b… |
| 07-08 00:06:28 | Merry-Entry 0x69d7…c25c | Yes | BUY | 11 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x4cb66b… |
| 07-07 20:41:56 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xb9f12b… |
| 07-07 20:41:56 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0xb9f12b… |
| 07-07 20:41:56 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xb9f12b… |
| 07-07 19:14:59 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xe4dbb6… |
| 07-07 19:14:59 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xe4dbb6… |
| 07-07 11:04:26 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x3019fb… |
| 07-07 11:04:26 | Stale-Armoire 0xca1f…d282 | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x3019fb… |
| 07-07 11:00:31 | Rowdy-Yang 0xcd96…11a3 | No | BUY | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xa75c15… |
| 07-07 11:00:31 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xa75c15… |
| 07-07 11:00:28 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x5fdf35… |
| 07-07 11:00:28 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 15 | 84¢ | $13 | 0x5fdf35… |
| 07-07 11:00:28 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 10 | 84¢ | $9 | 0x5fdf35… |
| 07-06 03:51:19 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0x0f25db… |
| 07-06 03:51:19 | Key-Finding 0xa9f2…6c8e | No | BUY | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0x0f25db… |
| 07-06 03:51:19 | Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x0f25db… |
| 07-05 20:00:17 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xc51ee0… |
| 07-05 20:00:17 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 31 | 83¢ | $26 | 0xc51ee0… |
| 07-04 22:59:19 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 48 | 83¢ | $40 | 0xf49a52… |
| 07-04 22:59:19 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 48 | 83¢ | $40 | 0xf49a52… |
| 07-04 21:28:19 | Optimal-Charter 0xab18…467d | No | SELL | 38 | 82¢ | $31 | 0x63ca1b… |
| 07-04 21:28:19 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0x63ca1b… |
| 07-04 21:28:19 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 18 | 82¢ | $15 | 0x63ca1b… |
| 07-03 16:48:08 | (anonymous) 0x9e2c…8a4d | Yes | SELL | 50 | 17¢ | $8 | 0x326ca3… |
| 07-03 16:48:08 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 50 | 83¢ | $42 | 0x326ca3… |
| 07-01 23:51:58 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 69 | 83¢ | $57 | 0x64d6fd… |
| 07-01 23:51:58 | Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | BUY | 69 | 83¢ | $57 | 0x64d6fd… |
| 06-30 08:40:44 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 7 | 82¢ | $6 | 0x0fc09f… |
| 06-30 08:40:44 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 7 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x0fc09f… |
| 06-30 08:40:43 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 15 | 82¢ | $12 | 0xd4133d… |
| 06-30 08:40:43 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 22 | 82¢ | $18 | 0xd4133d… |
| 06-30 08:40:43 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 7 | 82¢ | $6 | 0xd4133d… |
| 06-30 02:15:41 | (anonymous) 0x2b47…27fe | Yes | SELL | 16 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x1cbfd8… |
| 06-30 02:15:41 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 16 | 83¢ | $13 | 0x1cbfd8… |
| 06-29 21:19:56 | Gripping-Easel 0xd599…6a46 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xbebfc8… |
| 06-29 21:19:56 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 15 | 83¢ | $12 | 0xbebfc8… |
| 06-29 07:16:47 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xde4e1c… |
| 06-29 07:16:47 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0xde4e1c… |
| 06-29 07:16:26 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x917f22… |
| 06-29 07:16:26 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x917f22… |
| 06-29 07:16:26 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 15 | 18¢ | $3 | 0x917f22… |
| 06-25 20:29:26 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 23 | 17¢ | $4 | 0xd48623… |
| 06-25 20:29:26 | Crooked-Concern 0x407d…efcd | Yes | SELL | 23 | 17¢ | $4 | 0xd48623… |
| 06-24 15:09:20 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xe25bc7… |
| 06-24 15:09:20 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 18¢ | $9 | 0xe25bc7… |
| 06-24 15:09:20 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 45 | 82¢ | $37 | 0xe25bc7… |
| 06-24 14:30:01 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xbc6027… |
| 06-24 14:30:01 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xbc6027… |
| 06-24 14:30:01 | (anonymous) 0x3413…d913 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xbc6027… |
| 06-24 13:31:23 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 7 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x0710b2… |
| 06-24 13:31:23 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | No | SELL | 7 | 81¢ | $6 | 0x0710b2… |
| 06-24 01:07:59 | Sick-Keyboarding 0xc90b…1638 | No | BUY | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0xbe1e8b… |
| 06-24 01:07:59 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 12 | 18¢ | $2 | 0xbe1e8b… |
| 06-23 07:00:14 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 45 | 80¢ | $36 | 0xfe62dd… |
| 06-23 07:00:14 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 20¢ | $10 | 0xfe62dd… |
| 06-23 07:00:14 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0xfe62dd… |
| 06-21 18:26:58 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 18¢ | $10 | 0x0baf0d… |
| 06-21 18:26:58 | Unused-Dirt 0xb1df…309d | No | SELL | 309 | 81¢ | $251 | 0x0baf0d… |
| 06-21 18:26:58 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x0baf0d… |
| 06-21 18:26:58 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | BUY | 200 | 81¢ | $162 | 0x0baf0d… |
| 06-21 18:26:58 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 1 | 80¢ | $1 | 0x0baf0d… |
| 06-21 08:27:32 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0x497949… |
| 06-21 08:27:32 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 17¢ | $9 | 0x497949… |
| 06-21 08:27:32 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | BUY | 2 | 82¢ | $2 | 0x497949… |
| 06-21 08:27:32 | (anonymous) 0x1ebd…1c5d | Yes | SELL | 41 | 17¢ | $7 | 0x497949… |
| 06-21 07:59:10 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 13 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x8e6cd0… |
| 06-21 07:59:10 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 43 | 16¢ | $7 | 0x8e6cd0… |
| 06-21 07:59:10 | (anonymous) 0xd0de…370d | Yes | BUY | 61 | 16¢ | $10 | 0x8e6cd0… |
| 06-21 07:59:10 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x8e6cd0… |
| 06-21 05:45:59 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x2d02d1… |
| 06-21 05:45:59 | Showy-Acetate 0x1063…18e1 | No | SELL | 7 | 84¢ | $6 | 0x2d02d1… |
| 06-20 17:44:01 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x164a3a… |
| 06-20 17:44:01 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 16¢ | $8 | 0x164a3a… |
| 06-20 17:44:01 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x164a3a… |
| 06-20 17:44:01 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 16¢ | $4 | 0x164a3a… |
| 06-20 17:44:01 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 14 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x164a3a… |
| 06-20 14:17:25 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xd232cb… |
| 06-20 14:17:25 | (anonymous) 0xc6b2…3caa | Yes | SELL | 225 | 15¢ | $34 | 0xd232cb… |
| 06-20 14:17:25 | (anonymous) 0x8152…bfda | No | SELL | 156 | 85¢ | $133 | 0xd232cb… |
| 06-20 14:17:25 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 64 | 85¢ | $54 | 0xd232cb… |
| 06-20 08:58:10 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 25 | 85¢ | $21 | 0xda0af8… |
| 06-20 08:58:10 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | BUY | 25 | 85¢ | $21 | 0xda0af8… |
| 06-20 08:10:17 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x43646d… |
| 06-20 08:10:17 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 25 | 16¢ | $4 | 0x43646d… |
| 06-20 08:10:17 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0x43646d… |
| 06-20 02:33:16 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | No | SELL | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0xbb8956… |
| 06-20 02:33:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0xbb8956… |
| 06-19 21:29:16 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xc8060a… |
| 06-19 21:29:16 | (anonymous) 0x1ebd…1c5d | Yes | BUY | 41 | 17¢ | $7 | 0xc8060a… |
| 06-19 21:29:16 | Unused-Dirt 0xb1df…309d | No | BUY | 309 | 83¢ | $255 | 0xc8060a… |
| 06-19 21:29:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xc8060a… |
| 06-19 21:29:16 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xc8060a… |
| 06-19 21:29:16 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 50 | 83¢ | $42 | 0xc8060a… |
| 06-19 19:15:44 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 14 | 20¢ | $3 | 0xc6eb55… |
| 06-19 19:15:44 | Luminous-Kebab 0x14bc…3904 | No | SELL | 14 | 80¢ | $12 | 0xc6eb55… |
| 06-19 19:09:56 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 14 | 19¢ | $3 | 0xe77130… |
| 06-19 19:09:56 | Luminous-Kebab 0x14bc…3904 | No | BUY | 14 | 81¢ | $12 | 0xe77130… |