Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$7,978
$22 in 24h
Trades
416
Unique wallets
91
Liquidity
$3,149
Latest YES mid
14¢
Latest NO mid
86¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-31 17:32
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 14 | $88 | $1.2K | $1.1K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 22 | $165 | $922 | $757 |
| 🐟 Fish | 20 | $63 | $429 | $366 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 35 | $81 | $279 | $198 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 10 | $78 | $13 | +$66 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 7 | $26 | $308 | $282 |
| Median | 7 | $1 | $19 | $18 |
| Below median | 8 | $87 | $207 | $119 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $54 | $34 | +$20 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 9 | $31 | $901 | $871 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 6 | $8 | $177 | $169 |
| unranked | 36 | $112 | $1.1K | $1.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | +522 | $410 | $1,098 | 13 | 07-22 17:21 |
| albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | +237 | $200 | $200 | 2 | 07-12 14:24 |
| Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | +117 | $96 | $288 | 50 | 07-31 17:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xd0de…370d | Yes | +101 | $18 | $18 | 3 | 06-21 07:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xe63a…0679 | Yes | +93 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 07-21 14:30 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +69 | $58 | $58 | 2 | 07-04 22:59 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | +55 | $9 | $9 | 8 | 07-06 03:51 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +52 | $43 | $43 | 3 | 06-21 08:27 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +50 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-11 05:28 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +37 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 06-17 02:17 |
| Melodic-Portion 0x772d…0deb | No | +24 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-31 04:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xe4f3…b9f9 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 07-18 03:07 |
| Chilly-Ravioli 0xb7c4…be7b | Yes | +14 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-15 21:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x3413…d913 | Yes | +13 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-24 14:30 |
| Gripping-Dungarees 0xf7cc…2506 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-02 19:08 |
| Merry-Entry 0x69d7…c25c | Yes | +11 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-08 00:06 |
| Adept-Comfortable 0xf0fc…d716 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 11:03 |
| Stale-Armoire 0xca1f…d282 | No | +10 | $8 | $25 | 2 | 07-19 05:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b72…a958 | Yes | +9 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-05 04:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ecf…c85d | Yes | +9 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-05 04:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | +7 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-29 18:49 |
| Subdued-Ascot 0x0637…1e31 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 20:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x35df…cf97 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-18 14:43 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-15 10:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf19…b4a8 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-11 13:38 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf19…b4a8 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-11 13:38 |
| Rowdy-Yang 0xcd96…11a3 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-07 11:00 |
| Ill-Fated-Browsing 0x0fe5…91aa | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-12 03:20 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 17:32:03 | Sick-Keyboarding 0xc90b…1638 | No | SELL | 12 | 84¢ | $10 | 0x145943… |
| 07-31 17:32:03 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 2 | 84¢ | $2 | 0x145943… |
| 07-29 18:49:29 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 8 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xbf2ebe… |
| 07-29 18:49:29 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 8 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xbf2ebe… |
| 07-29 18:49:27 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 8 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x85010f… |
| 07-29 18:49:27 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x85010f… |
| 07-29 18:49:27 | Critical-Emitter 0x0d7e…cb13 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x85010f… |
| 07-29 18:49:27 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x85010f… |
| 07-29 18:11:47 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0xa1be10… |
| 07-29 18:11:47 | Critical-Emitter 0x0d7e…cb13 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 16¢ | $5 | 0xa1be10… |
| 07-27 07:24:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 15 | 84¢ | $13 | 0x233ee4… |
| 07-27 07:24:25 | Critical-Emitter 0x0d7e…cb13 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x233ee4… |
| 07-26 10:21:19 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x99b046… |
| 07-26 10:21:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 15 | 84¢ | $13 | 0x99b046… |
| 07-26 10:21:19 | Critical-Emitter 0x0d7e…cb13 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x99b046… |
| 07-25 18:38:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0x834561… |
| 07-25 18:38:24 | Critical-Emitter 0x0d7e…cb13 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x834561… |
| 07-25 18:37:34 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 15 | 85¢ | $13 | 0x15b09f… |
| 07-25 18:37:34 | Critical-Emitter 0x0d7e…cb13 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x15b09f… |
| 07-25 15:11:27 | (anonymous) 0x9217…651e | Yes | SELL | 13 | 13¢ | $2 | 0xad3f1d… |
| 07-25 15:11:27 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 13 | 87¢ | $11 | 0xad3f1d… |
| 07-25 13:13:04 | (anonymous) 0xe6f0…cfc9 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 13¢ | $5 | 0xf33552… |
| 07-25 13:13:04 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 40 | 87¢ | $35 | 0xf33552… |
| 07-24 23:49:01 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 7 | 87¢ | $6 | 0x9be119… |
| 07-24 23:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x1bcf…e52b | Yes | SELL | 7 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x9be119… |
| 07-22 17:21:25 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x913d18… |
| 07-22 17:21:25 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 20 | 87¢ | $17 | 0x913d18… |
| 07-22 17:21:15 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xd47395… |
| 07-22 17:21:15 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xd47395… |
| 07-22 05:57:54 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | BUY | 2 | 85¢ | $2 | 0x6f3582… |
| 07-22 05:57:54 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x6f3582… |
| 07-22 05:57:54 | Nautical-Licensing 0x76d2…6bfc | No | SELL | 17 | 85¢ | $14 | 0x6f3582… |
| 07-21 14:30:25 | (anonymous) 0xe63a…0679 | Yes | BUY | 93 | 14¢ | $13 | 0x623973… |
| 07-21 14:30:25 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 10 | 86¢ | $9 | 0x623973… |
| 07-21 14:30:25 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 78 | 14¢ | $11 | 0x623973… |
| 07-20 12:04:42 | (anonymous) 0x4ca9…7aa1 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xd4b54e… |
| 07-20 12:04:42 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 7 | 87¢ | $6 | 0xd4b54e… |
| 07-19 06:04:04 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 36 | 14¢ | $5 | 0x355445… |
| 07-19 06:04:04 | Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | SELL | 36 | 14¢ | $5 | 0x355445… |
| 07-19 06:03:36 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | SELL | 91 | 86¢ | $78 | 0x8a46b0… |
| 07-19 06:03:36 | Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | SELL | 91 | 14¢ | $13 | 0x8a46b0… |
| 07-19 06:03:30 | Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | SELL | 300 | 14¢ | $42 | 0xf9712e… |
| 07-19 06:03:30 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | SELL | 300 | 86¢ | $258 | 0xf9712e… |
| 07-19 06:03:10 | Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | SELL | 145 | 14¢ | $20 | 0x02e094… |
| 07-19 06:03:10 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 100 | 86¢ | $86 | 0x02e094… |
| 07-19 06:03:10 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | SELL | 9 | 86¢ | $8 | 0x02e094… |
| 07-19 06:03:10 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 36 | 14¢ | $5 | 0x02e094… |
| 07-19 05:07:34 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 6 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x217f82… |
| 07-19 05:07:34 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 100 | 85¢ | $85 | 0x217f82… |
| 07-19 05:07:34 | (anonymous) 0x8152…bfda | No | SELL | 231 | 85¢ | $197 | 0x217f82… |
| 07-19 05:07:34 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 352 | 15¢ | $53 | 0x217f82… |
| 07-19 05:07:34 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 15 | 85¢ | $13 | 0x217f82… |
| 07-19 05:07:28 | Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | SELL | 249 | 16¢ | $40 | 0x3a20b6… |
| 07-19 05:07:28 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 249 | 16¢ | $40 | 0x3a20b6… |
| 07-19 05:07:24 | Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | SELL | 300 | 16¢ | $48 | 0x54e468… |
| 07-19 05:07:24 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 187 | 84¢ | $157 | 0x54e468… |
| 07-19 05:07:24 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 103 | 16¢ | $16 | 0x54e468… |
| 07-19 05:07:24 | Stale-Armoire 0xca1f…d282 | No | SELL | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0x54e468… |
| 07-19 03:58:27 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x3feba3… |
| 07-19 03:58:27 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x3feba3… |
| 07-19 03:58:15 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x45f0e1… |
| 07-19 03:58:15 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x45f0e1… |
| 07-18 14:43:21 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x029dad… |
| 07-18 14:43:21 | (anonymous) 0x35df…cf97 | No | BUY | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x029dad… |
| 07-18 03:07:45 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x518efe… |
| 07-18 03:07:45 | (anonymous) 0xe4f3…b9f9 | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x518efe… |
| 07-12 14:24:14 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | SELL | 25 | 84¢ | $21 | 0x7c9d1e… |
| 07-12 14:24:14 | Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | SELL | 69 | 84¢ | $58 | 0x7c9d1e… |
| 07-12 14:24:14 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 17 | 84¢ | $14 | 0x7c9d1e… |
| 07-12 14:24:14 | albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | BUY | 119 | 84¢ | $100 | 0x7c9d1e… |
| 07-12 03:20:11 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xb1cf8b… |
| 07-12 03:20:11 | Ill-Fated-Browsing 0x0fe5…91aa | No | BUY | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xb1cf8b… |
| 07-10 15:42:56 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 3 | 83¢ | $2 | 0x76f14c… |
| 07-10 15:42:56 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 67 | 82¢ | $55 | 0x76f14c… |
| 07-10 15:42:56 | Key-Finding 0xa9f2…6c8e | No | SELL | 70 | 82¢ | $57 | 0x76f14c… |
| 07-10 15:22:40 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 7 | 83¢ | $6 | 0x835c92… |
| 07-10 15:22:40 | (anonymous) 0x4ca9…7aa1 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x835c92… |
| 07-08 18:45:34 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 60 | 84¢ | $50 | 0x271e26… |
| 07-08 18:45:34 | Key-Finding 0xa9f2…6c8e | No | BUY | 60 | 84¢ | $50 | 0x271e26… |
| 07-08 00:06:28 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 11 | 82¢ | $9 | 0x4cb66b… |
| 07-08 00:06:28 | Merry-Entry 0x69d7…c25c | Yes | BUY | 11 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x4cb66b… |
| 07-07 20:41:56 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xb9f12b… |
| 07-07 20:41:56 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0xb9f12b… |
| 07-07 20:41:56 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xb9f12b… |
| 07-07 19:14:59 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xe4dbb6… |
| 07-07 19:14:59 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xe4dbb6… |
| 07-07 11:04:26 | Stale-Armoire 0xca1f…d282 | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x3019fb… |
| 07-07 11:04:26 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x3019fb… |
| 07-07 11:00:31 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xa75c15… |
| 07-07 11:00:31 | Rowdy-Yang 0xcd96…11a3 | No | BUY | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xa75c15… |
| 07-07 11:00:28 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 15 | 84¢ | $13 | 0x5fdf35… |
| 07-07 11:00:28 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x5fdf35… |
| 07-07 11:00:28 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 10 | 84¢ | $9 | 0x5fdf35… |
| 07-06 03:51:19 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0x0f25db… |
| 07-06 03:51:19 | Key-Finding 0xa9f2…6c8e | No | BUY | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0x0f25db… |
| 07-06 03:51:19 | Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x0f25db… |
| 07-05 20:00:17 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 31 | 83¢ | $26 | 0xc51ee0… |
| 07-05 20:00:17 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xc51ee0… |
| 07-04 22:59:19 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 48 | 83¢ | $40 | 0xf49a52… |
| 07-04 22:59:19 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | SELL | 48 | 83¢ | $40 | 0xf49a52… |