Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$4,075
$22 in 24h
Trades
229
Unique wallets
55
Liquidity
$3,149
Latest YES mid
19¢
Latest NO mid
81¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-17 02:17
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 10 | $56 | $847 | $791 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 13 | $97 | $541 | $444 |
| 🐟 Fish | 12 | $25 | $142 | $117 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 20 | $45 | $147 | $102 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $27 | — | +$27 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $32 | $264 | $231 |
| Median | 7 | $4 | $25 | $21 |
| Below median | 2 | — | $67 | $67 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $44 | $17 | +$27 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 6 | $31 | $670 | $639 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $8 | $118 | $111 |
| unranked | 20 | $78 | $517 | $439 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | +700 | $573 | $573 | 7 | 06-08 15:49 |
| Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | +130 | $95 | $646 | 24 | 06-17 02:17 |
| albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | +118 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 05-31 09:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x54da…1a59 | Yes | +89 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-16 04:20 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +50 | $41 | $41 | 2 | 06-12 16:05 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +50 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-11 05:28 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | +50 | $9 | $9 | 7 | 06-16 12:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xd0de…370d | Yes | +40 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 06-14 03:15 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +37 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 06-17 02:17 |
| Melodic-Portion 0x772d…0deb | No | +24 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-31 04:46 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +22 | $17 | $259 | 17 | 06-11 22:07 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +22 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-06 22:31 |
| Gripping-Easel 0xd599…6a46 | Yes | +15 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-29 00:26 |
| Chilly-Ravioli 0xb7c4…be7b | Yes | +14 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-15 21:51 |
| Gripping-Dungarees 0xf7cc…2506 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-02 19:08 |
| Adept-Comfortable 0xf0fc…d716 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 11:03 |
| Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-08 15:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ecf…c85d | Yes | +9 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-05 04:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b72…a958 | Yes | +9 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-05 04:01 |
| Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | +7 | $5 | $129 | 26 | 06-17 02:17 |
| Subdued-Ascot 0x0637…1e31 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 20:23 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-15 10:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf19…b4a8 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-11 13:38 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf19…b4a8 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-11 13:38 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 02:17:43 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x6dcbfb… |
| 06-17 02:17:43 | Usable-Bull 0xc783…f3ff | Yes | SELL | 62 | 19¢ | $12 | 0x6dcbfb… |
| 06-17 02:17:43 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x6dcbfb… |
| 06-17 02:17:43 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x6dcbfb… |
| 06-16 13:40:29 | Dim-Underwriting 0x91e5…0947 | Yes | SELL | 143 | 20¢ | $29 | 0x9170a7… |
| 06-16 13:40:29 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 7 | 80¢ | $6 | 0x9170a7… |
| 06-16 13:40:29 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 150 | 80¢ | $120 | 0x9170a7… |
| 06-16 12:29:03 | Dim-Underwriting 0x91e5…0947 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x14f29c… |
| 06-16 12:29:03 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 25 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x14f29c… |
| 06-16 12:28:54 | Dim-Underwriting 0x91e5…0947 | Yes | SELL | 32 | 20¢ | $6 | 0x164402… |
| 06-16 12:28:54 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0x164402… |
| 06-16 12:28:54 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 25 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x164402… |
| 06-16 12:28:54 | Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 20¢ | $0 | 0x164402… |
| 06-16 04:20:25 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 34 | 77¢ | $26 | 0x86eb61… |
| 06-16 04:20:25 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 78¢ | $4 | 0x86eb61… |
| 06-16 04:20:25 | (anonymous) 0x54da…1a59 | Yes | BUY | 89 | 22¢ | $20 | 0x86eb61… |
| 06-15 21:51:55 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 9 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x6379a9… |
| 06-15 21:51:55 | Chilly-Ravioli 0xb7c4…be7b | Yes | BUY | 9 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x6379a9… |
| 06-15 10:36:25 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 5 | 76¢ | $4 | 0x3b4b56… |
| 06-15 10:36:25 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 50 | 76¢ | $38 | 0x3b4b56… |
| 06-15 10:36:25 | Sentimental-Asparagus 0xf0e0…016a | No | SELL | 55 | 76¢ | $42 | 0x3b4b56… |
| 06-14 03:15:01 | (anonymous) 0x82db…35f9 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 20¢ | $8 | 0x077767… |
| 06-14 03:15:01 | Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x077767… |
| 06-14 03:15:01 | (anonymous) 0xd0de…370d | Yes | BUY | 30 | 20¢ | $6 | 0x077767… |
| 06-13 06:28:33 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x791216… |
| 06-13 06:28:33 | (anonymous) 0xd0de…370d | Yes | BUY | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x791216… |
| 06-12 16:05:09 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x5c209c… |
| 06-12 16:05:09 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x5c209c… |
| 06-12 16:05:09 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x5c209c… |
| 06-12 16:04:52 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 14 | 20¢ | $3 | 0xb47963… |
| 06-12 16:04:52 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0xb47963… |
| 06-12 16:04:52 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xb47963… |
| 06-12 16:04:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 20¢ | $0 | 0xb47963… |
| 06-12 16:04:36 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 20¢ | $6 | 0x8c89c6… |
| 06-12 16:04:36 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x8c89c6… |
| 06-11 23:22:45 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 2 | 79¢ | $2 | 0x12dac9… |
| 06-11 23:22:45 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x12dac9… |
| 06-11 23:22:45 | (anonymous) 0x9de0…1886 | No | SELL | 7 | 79¢ | $6 | 0x12dac9… |
| 06-11 22:14:55 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | SELL | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0xfc9769… |
| 06-11 22:14:55 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0xfc9769… |
| 06-11 22:14:55 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0xfc9769… |
| 06-11 22:07:06 | Handmade-Burst 0x4f9a…436d | Yes | SELL | 4 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xb038da… |
| 06-11 22:07:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 4 | 81¢ | $3 | 0xb038da… |
| 06-11 13:38:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x02e5be… |
| 06-11 13:38:34 | (anonymous) 0xcf19…b4a8 | No | BUY | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x02e5be… |
| 06-11 13:38:34 | (anonymous) 0xcf19…b4a8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0xd1155d… |
| 06-11 13:38:34 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0xd1155d… |
| 06-11 05:29:55 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 24 | 21¢ | $5 | 0x822328… |
| 06-11 05:29:55 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 21¢ | $6 | 0x822328… |
| 06-11 05:29:55 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 84 | 79¢ | $66 | 0x822328… |
| 06-11 05:29:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 22¢ | $7 | 0x822328… |
| 06-11 05:28:07 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 50 | 25¢ | $12 | 0x59951d… |
| 06-11 05:28:07 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 50 | 75¢ | $38 | 0x59951d… |
| 06-10 23:04:52 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0x3be5b7… |
| 06-10 23:04:52 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x3be5b7… |
| 06-10 21:25:34 | Chilly-Ravioli 0xb7c4…be7b | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x897c5a… |
| 06-10 21:25:34 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0x897c5a… |
| 06-10 19:46:15 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x0d659b… |
| 06-10 19:46:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 14 | 82¢ | $12 | 0x0d659b… |
| 06-10 19:46:15 | (anonymous) 0x8c65…d11b | Yes | SELL | 24 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x0d659b… |
| 06-10 11:03:01 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 10 | 80¢ | $8 | 0x3bb2a7… |
| 06-10 11:03:01 | Adept-Comfortable 0xf0fc…d716 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x3bb2a7… |
| 06-09 17:02:24 | Second-Domain 0x682d…4cd6 | No | SELL | 100 | 81¢ | $81 | 0xee4db3… |
| 06-09 17:02:24 | Delayed-Appetiser 0x270a…7b78 | Yes | SELL | 95 | 19¢ | $18 | 0xee4db3… |
| 06-09 17:02:24 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xee4db3… |
| 06-09 09:59:42 | Delayed-Appetiser 0x270a…7b78 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 19¢ | $0 | 0x402c5d… |
| 06-09 09:59:42 | Quarterly-Humidity 0xd6fa…4f2d | No | SELL | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x402c5d… |
| 06-08 16:58:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 43 | 81¢ | $35 | 0x8d29d7… |
| 06-08 16:58:55 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 43 | 81¢ | $35 | 0x8d29d7… |
| 06-08 16:38:27 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0xe88b9b… |
| 06-08 16:38:27 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0xe88b9b… |
| 06-08 16:36:15 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 43 | 78¢ | $33 | 0x5665c7… |
| 06-08 16:36:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 43 | 78¢ | $33 | 0x5665c7… |
| 06-08 16:35:15 | Feline-Resemblance 0xd6a8…58fd | Yes | SELL | 67 | 28¢ | $19 | 0x96c049… |
| 06-08 16:35:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 23 | 73¢ | $16 | 0x96c049… |
| 06-08 16:35:15 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 90 | 72¢ | $65 | 0x96c049… |
| 06-08 16:35:10 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xcdfcf1… |
| 06-08 16:35:10 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 80¢ | $8 | 0xcdfcf1… |
| 06-08 16:35:10 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 15 | 80¢ | $12 | 0xcdfcf1… |
| 06-08 16:12:37 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 23 | 80¢ | $19 | 0x3a6e55… |
| 06-08 16:12:37 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | No | SELL | 23 | 80¢ | $19 | 0x3a6e55… |
| 06-08 15:49:37 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | BUY | 200 | 81¢ | $162 | 0x050dae… |
| 06-08 15:49:37 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x050dae… |
| 06-08 15:49:37 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | BUY | 90 | 81¢ | $73 | 0x050dae… |
| 06-08 15:49:37 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 10 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x050dae… |
| 06-08 15:49:37 | Second-Domain 0x682d…4cd6 | No | SELL | 397 | 81¢ | $322 | 0x050dae… |
| 06-08 15:49:37 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | No | BUY | 23 | 81¢ | $19 | 0x050dae… |
| 06-08 15:49:37 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | No | BUY | 9 | 81¢ | $7 | 0x050dae… |
| 06-08 15:49:37 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x050dae… |
| 06-08 13:27:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 3 | 82¢ | $2 | 0x26fd51… |
| 06-08 13:27:03 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x26fd51… |
| 06-08 13:27:03 | Proud-Vise 0x6fed…a29a | No | SELL | 8 | 82¢ | $7 | 0x26fd51… |
| 06-08 13:24:52 | Proud-Vise 0x6fed…a29a | No | BUY | 8 | 83¢ | $7 | 0x3c120a… |
| 06-08 13:24:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 8 | 83¢ | $7 | 0x3c120a… |
| 06-08 11:49:28 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x43039f… |
| 06-08 11:49:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 10 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x43039f… |
| 06-08 11:49:28 | (anonymous) 0x50a3…0a78 | No | SELL | 15 | 82¢ | $12 | 0x43039f… |
| 06-08 01:35:01 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x24a818… |
| 06-08 01:35:01 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x24a818… |
| 06-08 01:34:52 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x06a5b7… |