Plump-Implementation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$31.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$276

Hit rate

12.8%

Resolved

12,830

Trades

240,435

lifetime

Volume

$2.25M

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$11.2K

30 positions

First seen

2026-05-18

last 10-27 04:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Other

54% 15% -$20,712

Politics

35% 13% -$7,573

Sports

5% 15% -$1,297

Crypto

3% 59% -$1,033

Tech

2% 13% -$368

Pop-Culture

1% 4% -$468

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 5226 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	+1,600	$1,360	84¢	$1.4K	-$8	10-24 15:36
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+1,400	$1,298	92¢	$1.3K	-$3	10-24 15:29
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	+800	$652	82¢	$660	+$8	10-24 20:54
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	+600	$595	98¢	$589	-$6	10-25 09:46
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	No	+600	$580	97¢	$580	-$1	10-24 09:34
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	+600	$558	90¢	$537	-$21	10-24 21:21
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	+803	$655	62¢	$494	-$161	10-26 17:57
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	+564	$460	85¢	$478	+$19	10-25 11:19
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	No	+394	$357	90¢	$353	-$4	10-20 18:57
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	+381	$354	92¢	$351	-$3	10-22 09:14
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	No	+366	$316	86¢	$317	+$1	10-24 06:13
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	+529	$350	58¢	$310	-$41	10-24 21:31
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	+340	$275	80¢	$274	-$1	10-25 13:55
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?	Yes	+7,489	$322	4¢	$266	-$57	10-26 16:38
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	+425	$260	59¢	$251	-$9	10-25 20:13
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	+1,600	$260	16¢	$248	-$12	10-24 15:36
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+237	$200	98¢	$231	+$32	10-25 02:03
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+529	$245	42¢	$220	-$25	10-24 21:31
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	No	+249	$222	88¢	$218	-$5	10-25 02:49
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	+550	$147	38¢	$212	+$65	10-24 05:31
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	No	+295	$241	71¢	$209	-$32	10-25 18:12
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+264	$214	78¢	$204	-$10	10-24 14:41
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	+251	$197	80¢	$202	+$6	10-25 13:37
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	+234	$207	86¢	$202	-$4	10-25 10:04
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+200	$197	98¢	$196	-$1	10-21 00:55
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$192	97¢	$195	+$2	10-20 03:32
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	No	+200	$192	97¢	$194	+$3	10-25 14:27
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$196	97¢	$194	-$2	10-26 01:34
New pandemic in 2026?	No	+200	$193	96¢	$193	$0	10-25 14:23
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	+200	$196	96¢	$192	-$4	10-25 16:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	162	$16.3K	16,574	16,574	+0	No	-$170	08-25 22:07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	158	$16.0K	14,311	14,311	+0	No	-$55	08-25 20:30
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	12	$15.7K	8,023	8,023	+0	Yes	-$9	10-26 01:56
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 21 2026	100	$9.3K	9,813	9,813	+0	No	-$111	08-25 22:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	73	$8.9K	7,081	7,081	+0	No	-$65	08-26 00:18
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	86	$7.2K	8,583	8,173	+409	No	-$68	08-26 00:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	72	$6.8K	7,002	6,602	+400	open	—	08-26 00:25
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 14 2026	64	$6.1K	6,543	6,543	+0	No	-$100	08-25 23:32
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	61	$5.7K	6,565	6,562	+3	No	-$62	08-25 20:00
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	99	$5.6K	4,980	4,549	+431	open	—	10-26 18:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	58	$5.5K	5,744	5,744	+0	open	—	08-25 20:46
us x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	54	$5.3K	5,431	5,431	+0	No	-$57	08-25 20:00
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	61	$5.1K	5,829	5,829	+0	No	-$55	08-25 20:00
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	140	$4.4K	4,575	4,513	+62	open	—	10-21 22:26
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857	48	$4.1K	5,249	4,868	+381	open	—	08-25 20:17
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	60	$3.4K	3,413	3,109	+303	open	—	10-22 07:14
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	28	$3.3K	2,447	2,447	+0	No	-$10	08-23 19:06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	55	$3.2K	2,937	2,937	+0	open	—	10-17 19:23
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	44	$3.2K	4,681	3,481	+1,200	open	—	10-24 21:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	47	$3.1K	2,851	2,847	+3	open	—	10-13 13:33
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	71	$3.0K	5,683	5,683	+0	Yes	-$35	08-23 01:05
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	33	$2.9K	2,560	2,560	+0	Yes	-$25	08-25 04:59
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	24	$2.9K	2,096	2,096	+0	No	-$13	08-22 05:44
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	66	$2.8K	3,211	3,201	+10	open	—	10-22 00:03
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	36	$2.8K	2,533	2,533	+0	open	—	10-10 12:28
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	156	$2.7K	2,697	2,301	+396	open	—	10-25 06:21
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	101	$2.7K	3,058	3,058	+0	Yes	-$74	09-29 07:42
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	18	$2.7K	4,000	800	+3,200	open	—	10-24 15:36
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	47	$2.6K	3,681	3,681	+0	Yes	-$20	08-23 20:15
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	21	$2.6K	3,491	3,491	+0	No	-$75	08-25 23:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 05:47:59	Will Coventry City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	SELL	11	57¢	$6	0x50d248…
10-27 05:45:38	Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0xbbed6f…
10-27 05:45:06	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	39	51¢	$20	0x1a65c0…
10-27 05:43:17	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?	Yes	SELL	33	79¢	$26	0x888502…
10-27 05:42:48	Will the Dallas Cowboys have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	11	71¢	$7	0x61bcaf…
10-27 05:39:24	Will Parker Washington have 949.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	24	63¢	$15	0xd64423…
10-27 05:38:47	Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?	No	SELL	15	75¢	$11	0x7c0a1b…
10-27 05:38:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-05 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	12	78¢	$9	0xbae4a8…
10-27 05:33:32	Will Mike Evans have 624.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	36	79¢	$28	0x9c4283…
10-27 05:30:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x8583f1…
10-27 05:29:06	Will "The End of Oak Street" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$6	0xe225e8…
10-27 05:28:30	Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x14579d…
10-27 05:27:21	Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xa51e1a…
10-27 05:25:41	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-05 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x2ce993…
10-27 05:24:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-02 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x80f279…
10-27 05:22:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-09 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	13	27¢	$4	0x8524bf…
10-27 05:14:20	Will Islam Makhachev retire from the UFC by the end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	15¢	$4	0xafe5f0…
10-27 05:13:54	Will SanDisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0xdc0d83…
10-27 05:11:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	30	71¢	$21	0xed7815…
10-27 05:11:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	34	71¢	$24	0x8952b3…
10-27 05:11:26	Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1873 "Gun that Won the West" (.44-40) as the state gun of Idaho?	Yes	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x0cf7c1…
10-27 05:10:18	Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	SELL	17	62¢	$11	0x259bdc…
10-27 05:07:50	Will Nassourdine Imamov fight Sean Strickland next?	No	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0x940fdd…
10-27 05:07:50	Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x7956df…
10-27 05:07:50	Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x21036e…
10-27 05:07:50	Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x208d27…
10-27 05:01:53	Will A$AP Rocky have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xf12aa1…
10-27 04:59:50	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?	Yes	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x92cab9…
10-27 04:59:30	Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xa20e72…
10-27 04:59:17	Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0x9dc9d0…
10-27 04:55:27	Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	51	37¢	$19	0x884cd8…
10-27 04:53:00	Will Bad Bunny be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xe5f944…
10-27 04:52:56	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0xe82d05…
10-27 04:47:33	Will Real Tomayapo be relegated from the 2026 Bolivia LFPB?	No	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x6f9000…
10-27 04:43:20	Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?	No	SELL	13	78¢	$10	0x2ed200…
10-27 04:31:09	Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Sonora Congress election?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x6c2cae…
10-27 04:30:47	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xcbcdbd…
10-27 04:25:50	Will Tee Higgins have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0xd8b493…
10-27 04:21:29	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-01 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0xd76647…
10-27 04:21:06	Will Russia capture Kindrativka by December 31?	No	SELL	19	80¢	$15	0x0a32fb…
10-27 04:14:53	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 500,000 and 550,000?	No	SELL	60	66¢	$40	0x7b144a…
10-27 04:12:39	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be between 2,000,000 and 2,150,000?	No	SELL	18	64¢	$12	0xf69783…
10-27 04:11:59	Will Deadlock win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0x0460d3…
10-27 04:10:14	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xc82ae2…
10-27 04:05:38	Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	15¢	$1	0xc4127d…
10-27 04:04:51	Will Ashton Jeanty have 774.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xecf4dd…
10-27 04:03:41	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xe26000…
10-27 04:02:08	Will the Democrats win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	18	20¢	$4	0x995744…
10-27 04:02:05	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0x96e80b…
10-27 03:59:36	Will Teeny Brumby win the next Burnie mayoral election?	No	SELL	15	19¢	$3	0x5f3b05…
10-27 03:59:21	Will Nathan Volf win the next Glenorchy mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x64d5ea…
10-27 03:59:20	Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xfb6b11…
10-27 03:59:20	Will Nathan Volf win the next Glenorchy mayoral election?	No	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0xde5740…
10-27 03:59:20	Will Kristian Horvath win the next Sorell mayoral election?	No	SELL	35	62¢	$22	0xd12a38…
10-27 03:59:20	Will Paul Gibson win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	57	20¢	$11	0xb58153…
10-27 03:59:20	Will Kristian Horvath win the next Sorell mayoral election?	No	SELL	18	60¢	$11	0xa4780f…
10-27 03:59:20	Will Teeny Brumby win the next Burnie mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xa20b80…
10-27 03:59:20	Will Abby McKibben win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	27	32¢	$9	0x9b19dc…
10-27 03:59:20	Will parties below the electoral threshold receive 8% or higher of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x7608be…
10-27 03:59:20	Will Chris Lynch win the next Burnie mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x4a8fb3…
10-27 03:59:20	Will Maura Higgins be eliminated in week 7 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x30cbfa…
10-27 03:59:20	Will Mark Jessop win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x2e0fe8…
10-27 03:56:48	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0x71cadf…
10-27 03:56:18	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	No	SELL	150	27¢	$40	0x860c0f…
10-27 03:56:17	Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0x070e41…
10-27 03:54:09	Will Lens qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x08fb40…
10-27 03:48:24	Will Ole Miss be a top 4 seed in the 2027 College Football Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x2741ac…
10-27 03:48:12	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	SELL	13	37¢	$5	0xc41028…
10-27 03:47:35	Will Kendrick Lamar be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Yes	SELL	14	18¢	$3	0x0aa045…
10-27 03:47:24	Will Jake Ferguson have 4.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x37be42…
10-27 03:46:29	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	13	16¢	$2	0xd3922b…
10-27 03:45:02	Will the Democrats win Washoe County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	11	16¢	$2	0x4b94d6…
10-27 03:36:51	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Querétaro Congress election?	Yes	SELL	26	19¢	$5	0xf6a64f…
10-27 03:36:29	Will PP win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xa07a74…
10-27 03:36:12	Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x48f5f6…
10-27 03:35:35	Will Yair Golan be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	No	SELL	28	89¢	$25	0xdc7c48…
10-27 03:34:33	Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x8f9cbb…
10-27 03:32:09	Will Darius Acuff Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0xe60f20…
10-27 03:31:47	Will Invictus Gaming Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xf186b4…
10-27 03:31:18	Will Invictus Gaming Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	37	82¢	$31	0x542e66…
10-27 03:30:35	Will Ty Simpson finish as a top-5 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$0	0xce458f…
10-27 03:21:17	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?	No	SELL	4	38¢	$2	0xe552d7…
10-27 03:19:27	Will Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi be the next mayor of eThekwini?	No	SELL	60	62¢	$37	0xe575fc…
10-27 03:17:48	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	53	34¢	$18	0xec3148…
10-27 03:15:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-04 House election by 65%-70%?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x8e32ff…
10-27 03:11:57	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xb42f24…
10-27 03:11:05	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?	Yes	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0xdfe83c…
10-27 03:11:00	Will Javonte Williams have 1,000+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	15	51¢	$8	0x682416…
10-27 03:09:47	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be between 2,750,000 and 2,900,000?	No	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x57a7f4…
10-27 03:09:32	Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xd30a9c…
10-27 03:08:57	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 15%-18%?	Yes	SELL	35	11¢	$4	0xddbb67…
10-27 03:08:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-04 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x1fcc92…
10-27 03:07:12	Will the Miami Heat make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xfada23…
10-27 03:03:05	Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 14+ innings?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x0ab170…
10-27 03:01:59	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	8	67¢	$6	0xbd9c34…
10-27 03:00:05	Will Bijan Robinson finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing yards?	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0xe5cd7b…
10-27 02:59:09	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-04 House election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0x6d8cc3…
10-27 02:57:06	Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?	Yes	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x0572a7…
10-27 02:56:15	Will Sport Boys be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x30c526…
10-27 02:56:02	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?	Yes	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0x8f993e…