Realized P&L
-$36
Unrealized P&L
+$66
Hit rate
91.4%
Resolved
20
Trades
5,535
lifetime
Volume
$140.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$1.97K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 07-20 16:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
41% 80% $-53
Other
38% 80% +$17
Sports
16%
Crypto
4%
Tech
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -590 $-566 96¢ $-565 +$1 07-05 09:41
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -275 $-190 68¢ $-189 +$2 07-11 17:39
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +192 $159 92¢ $175 +$16 07-19 14:20
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -100 $-99 93¢ $-93 +$6 07-16 22:54
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No -85 $-80 94¢ $-80 $-0 07-11 07:08
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +86 $78 90¢ $77 $-1 07-19 16:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +96 $81 74¢ $70 $-11 07-19 04:06
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -65 $-65 94¢ $-61 +$4 07-17 01:14
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes +67 $53 83¢ $56 +$3 07-12 11:33
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No -54 $-41 91¢ $-49 $-8 05-28 11:19
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +57 $44 84¢ $48 +$5 07-13 22:55
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +65 $35 70¢ $46 +$10 07-14 11:02
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +69 $36 60¢ $42 +$6 07-06 11:42
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +48 $27 86¢ $42 +$15 05-30 16:15
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No +49 $39 80¢ $39 +$1 07-12 12:03
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +49 $34 80¢ $39 +$5 05-29 20:05
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No +40 $34 91¢ $36 +$2 07-06 11:43
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +45 $33 78¢ $35 +$2 06-08 16:28
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No +30 $24 88¢ $26 +$2 07-03 17:33
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +33 $22 66¢ $22 +$0 07-14 11:02
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +30 $20 70¢ $21 +$1 07-09 00:11
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +26 $19 80¢ $21 +$2 06-07 01:39
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +24 $19 84¢ $20 +$2 06-06 03:34
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +29 $18 68¢ $20 +$2 07-20 13:47
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +24 $17 76¢ $18 +$1 07-14 11:02
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +19 $17 89¢ $17 +$0 06-05 19:08
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? No +18 $17 92¢ $17 $-0 07-11 17:43
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +20 $18 78¢ $16 $-2 07-08 11:33
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No +16 $15 94¢ $15 $-0 07-13 16:24
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +19 $15 78¢ $14 $-0 07-12 14:30