Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$16,968
$74 in 24h
Trades
875
Unique wallets
207
Liquidity
$2,923
Latest YES mid
34¢
Latest NO mid
66¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-24 21:20
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-2.0¢
(top1%: 35% YES on $713
vs crowd: 37% YES on $10.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 22 | $1.1K | $1.6K | $544 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 32 | $991 | $2.7K | $1.7K |
| 🐟 Fish | 55 | $853 | $1.4K | $509 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 98 | $880 | $759 | +$121 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $251 | $463 | $212 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 12 | $233 | $482 | $249 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 9 | $147 | $178 | $31 |
| Median | 18 | $807 | $128 | +$679 |
| Below median | 40 | $286 | $416 | $130 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 10 | $359 | $44 | +$315 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 8 | $552 | $620 | $68 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 8 | $320 | $512 | $191 |
| unranked | 99 | $863 | $3.6K | $2.7K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | +1,082 | $646 | $2,633 | 108 | 07-24 17:53 |
| Sociable-Rooster 0x44c1…ebc1 | Yes | +806 | $277 | $277 | 1 | 07-10 15:41 |
| Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | +539 | $319 | $565 | 8 | 07-09 15:58 |
| Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | +534 | $335 | $429 | 10 | 07-20 19:09 |
| Ethical-Reception 0x8c10…d7b3 | No | +500 | $320 | $320 | 1 | 06-12 14:41 |
| Perfumed-Appointment 0x3f3b…1d77 | Yes | +448 | $144 | $144 | 3 | 07-14 23:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x30fa…079d | Yes | +420 | $84 | $84 | 1 | 07-08 02:16 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +372 | $113 | $113 | 10 | 06-24 15:09 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +325 | $215 | $215 | 11 | 07-24 17:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x5809…9b2e | Yes | +240 | $67 | $67 | 4 | 06-22 02:57 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +211 | $146 | $146 | 11 | 07-13 14:44 |
| Plush-Loft 0xa284…fbba | Yes | +203 | $75 | $75 | 1 | 06-08 01:43 |
| Useless-Marker 0x0b65…013e | Yes | +200 | $64 | $64 | 5 | 07-20 19:09 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +195 | $58 | $63 | 15 | 07-13 09:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | +175 | $64 | $64 | 3 | 07-15 09:13 |
| Golden-Anguish 0x23a8…8004 | Yes | +158 | $37 | $101 | 9 | 07-10 15:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +138 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 07-07 10:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6cf…b265 | Yes | +119 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 07-02 14:35 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +114 | $74 | $74 | 7 | 07-10 15:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xbf93…933c | No | +100 | $76 | $76 | 1 | 07-06 06:32 |
| Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | +100 | $67 | $67 | 3 | 07-10 15:41 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +94 | $63 | $63 | 2 | 06-18 08:17 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | +92 | $31 | $31 | 10 | 07-05 21:52 |
| Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | Yes | +90 | $22 | $184 | 20 | 07-15 04:08 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +79 | $53 | $156 | 15 | 07-24 17:24 |
| albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | +76 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 05-31 09:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xdac9…2de6 | No | +75 | $57 | $57 | 1 | 07-06 06:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x1bbd…45ab | No | +70 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 07-06 06:15 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +67 | $13 | $422 | 16 | 06-30 19:41 |
| Slow-Exhibit 0x1411…2410 | No | +63 | $41 | $92 | 4 | 07-20 19:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xc324…7f01 | Yes | +55 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-11 07:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3ff…dc64 | No | +55 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-08 03:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xea81…ef04 | No | +55 | $42 | $42 | 1 | 07-06 06:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x2831…d641 | No | +53 | $38 | $38 | 2 | 06-25 07:41 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +50 | $17 | $39 | 4 | 07-23 00:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xcea0…0ebd | No | +47 | $34 | $70 | 2 | 06-25 07:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x2837…f18a | No | +45 | $31 | $31 | 1 | 06-23 08:34 |
| Clear-Cut-Furniture-Drainage 0xa9a0…e259 | No | +45 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 05-31 21:20 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +43 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 06-24 02:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x090c…9bb8 | No | +40 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 06-23 06:56 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +39 | $26 | $26 | 2 | 06-25 16:37 |
| Zealous-Passage 0xfb74…ae29 | Yes | +31 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-20 19:10 |
| Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | Yes | +30 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-20 19:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x21d2…2c27 | No | +30 | $22 | $62 | 2 | 06-25 07:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xbeef…f919 | Yes | +28 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-10 15:44 |
| Envious-Shred 0x47f9…ebb8 | Yes | +27 | $10 | $10 | 7 | 07-15 11:44 |
| Slow-Exhibit 0x1411…2410 | Yes | +26 | $-5 | $44 | 8 | 07-19 04:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xc978…6d3c | No | +25 | $19 | $75 | 2 | 06-23 06:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x85df…fb48 | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 07-10 15:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | +20 | $16 | $39 | 11 | 07-08 03:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x3413…d913 | Yes | +18 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-24 14:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x2712…eb71 | No | +17 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-20 07:10 |
| Idle-Pineapple 0x5fa5…b7a7 | Yes | +15 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-10 15:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | No | +15 | $10 | $22 | 4 | 07-10 16:07 |
| Unrealistic-Opinion 0x4fb3…a39b | Yes | +15 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-14 00:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | Yes | +14 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-10 15:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x3d03…9d52 | Yes | +11 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-10 15:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xa754…ec4b | Yes | +10 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-05 08:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-07 11:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xc02b…13d1 | Yes | +8 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-10 15:41 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 21:20:48 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 82 | 65¢ | $53 | 0x455312… |
| 07-24 21:20:48 | Trifling-Ravioli 0xf8eb…8473 | Yes | SELL | 82 | 35¢ | $29 | 0x455312… |
| 07-24 17:53:03 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 50 | 65¢ | $32 | 0x51ea4b… |
| 07-24 17:53:03 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 100 | 65¢ | $65 | 0x51ea4b… |
| 07-24 17:53:03 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 168 | 65¢ | $109 | 0x51ea4b… |
| 07-24 17:40:16 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 50 | 65¢ | $32 | 0x5d64ea… |
| 07-24 17:40:16 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 50 | 65¢ | $32 | 0x5d64ea… |
| 07-24 17:30:07 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 50 | 65¢ | $32 | 0xfbf11c… |
| 07-24 17:30:07 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 32 | 65¢ | $21 | 0xfbf11c… |
| 07-24 17:25:19 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 50 | 65¢ | $32 | 0x7e2822… |
| 07-24 17:25:19 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 32 | 65¢ | $21 | 0x7e2822… |
| 07-24 17:24:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 66¢ | $20 | 0xd11348… |
| 07-24 17:24:19 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0xd11348… |
| 07-24 17:24:19 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 50 | 66¢ | $33 | 0xd11348… |
| 07-24 17:24:12 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 12 | 65¢ | $8 | 0xb81439… |
| 07-24 17:24:12 | (anonymous) 0xb84c…e169 | Yes | SELL | 37 | 34¢ | $13 | 0xb81439… |
| 07-24 17:24:12 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 49 | 66¢ | $32 | 0xb81439… |
| 07-24 17:24:10 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | BUY | 50 | 66¢ | $33 | 0x3a2b39… |
| 07-24 17:24:10 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 50 | 66¢ | $33 | 0x3a2b39… |
| 07-24 17:24:10 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | BUY | 250 | 66¢ | $165 | 0x3a2b39… |
| 07-24 17:24:10 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 50 | 66¢ | $33 | 0x3a2b39… |
| 07-24 17:24:10 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 50 | 66¢ | $33 | 0x3a2b39… |
| 07-24 17:24:10 | Unfit-Hardboard 0x7e35…1a6c | No | SELL | 549 | 66¢ | $363 | 0x3a2b39… |
| 07-24 17:24:10 | (anonymous) 0xb84c…e169 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 33¢ | $16 | 0x3a2b39… |
| 07-24 17:24:10 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 49 | 66¢ | $32 | 0x3a2b39… |
| 07-23 16:44:10 | (anonymous) 0xb84c…e169 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 33¢ | $16 | 0x0c0eec… |
| 07-23 16:44:10 | (anonymous) 0xe8d6…e410 | No | SELL | 72 | 67¢ | $48 | 0x0c0eec… |
| 07-23 16:44:10 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 3 | 66¢ | $2 | 0x0c0eec… |
| 07-23 16:44:10 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | Yes | SELL | 19 | 34¢ | $6 | 0x0c0eec… |
| 07-23 00:49:28 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 6 | 68¢ | $4 | 0xe0e071… |
| 07-23 00:49:28 | Merry-Entry 0x69d7…c25c | Yes | SELL | 96 | 31¢ | $30 | 0xe0e071… |
| 07-23 00:49:28 | (anonymous) 0xb84c…e169 | Yes | BUY | 71 | 31¢ | $22 | 0xe0e071… |
| 07-23 00:49:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 31¢ | $6 | 0xe0e071… |
| 07-22 11:44:51 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 4 | 68¢ | $3 | 0x7e47d2… |
| 07-22 11:44:51 | Aromatic-Carter 0xde28…2115 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 32¢ | $1 | 0x7e47d2… |
| 07-22 11:44:24 | (anonymous) 0x9176…7f57 | No | SELL | 311 | 67¢ | $208 | 0x2bfde5… |
| 07-22 11:44:24 | Aromatic-Carter 0xde28…2115 | Yes | SELL | 311 | 33¢ | $103 | 0x2bfde5… |
| 07-22 09:57:30 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 50 | 66¢ | $33 | 0xc0a66b… |
| 07-22 09:57:30 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | Yes | SELL | 31 | 34¢ | $11 | 0xc0a66b… |
| 07-22 09:57:30 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 19 | 66¢ | $13 | 0xc0a66b… |
| 07-22 09:52:16 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 50 | 66¢ | $33 | 0x7d401a… |
| 07-22 09:52:16 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 67¢ | $7 | 0x7d401a… |
| 07-22 09:52:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 9 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x7d401a… |
| 07-22 09:52:16 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 31 | 66¢ | $20 | 0x7d401a… |
| 07-22 09:49:25 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | Yes | SELL | 50 | 33¢ | $16 | 0xd1ad07… |
| 07-22 09:49:25 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 50 | 67¢ | $34 | 0xd1ad07… |
| 07-22 09:48:34 | (anonymous) 0x9176…7f57 | No | BUY | 23 | 68¢ | $16 | 0x6e1483… |
| 07-22 09:48:34 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 23 | 68¢ | $16 | 0x6e1483… |
| 07-22 09:48:31 | (anonymous) 0x073e…8416 | No | SELL | 23 | 68¢ | $16 | 0x705260… |
| 07-22 09:48:31 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x181951… |
| 07-22 09:48:31 | (anonymous) 0x9176…7f57 | No | BUY | 23 | 68¢ | $16 | 0x705260… |
| 07-22 09:48:31 | (anonymous) 0x9176…7f57 | No | BUY | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x181951… |
| 07-22 09:48:30 | (anonymous) 0x9176…7f57 | No | BUY | 27 | 68¢ | $18 | 0x54003a… |
| 07-22 09:48:30 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 27 | 68¢ | $18 | 0x54003a… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | (anonymous) 0x073e…8416 | No | BUY | 23 | 68¢ | $16 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 500 | 68¢ | $340 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 16 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 20 | 69¢ | $14 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-22 09:48:28 | (anonymous) 0x9176…7f57 | No | BUY | 191 | 68¢ | $130 | 0x087bc3… |
| 07-20 20:18:16 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0xddcd7b… |
| 07-20 20:18:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 5 | 69¢ | $4 | 0xddcd7b… |
| 07-20 19:15:33 | Slow-Exhibit 0x1411…2410 | No | SELL | 28 | 70¢ | $20 | 0x3085ff… |
| 07-20 19:15:33 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 9 | 68¢ | $6 | 0x2daa44… |
| 07-20 19:15:33 | mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | No | SELL | 25 | 68¢ | $17 | 0x2daa44… |
| 07-20 19:15:33 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 30¢ | $8 | 0x3085ff… |
| 07-20 19:15:33 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 16 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x2daa44… |
| 07-20 19:10:52 | Zealous-Passage 0xfb74…ae29 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 32¢ | $10 | 0xfb914e… |
| 07-20 19:10:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 15 | 68¢ | $10 | 0xfb914e… |
| 07-20 19:10:52 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0xfb914e… |
| 07-20 19:09:25 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 17 | 30¢ | $5 | 0x7e0410… |
| 07-20 19:09:25 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 33 | 30¢ | $10 | 0x7e0410… |
| 07-20 19:09:25 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | SELL | 16 | 71¢ | $11 | 0x7e0410… |
| 07-20 19:09:21 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 30¢ | $5 | 0xc749c8… |
| 07-20 19:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 17 | 30¢ | $5 | 0xc749c8… |
| 07-20 19:09:18 | (anonymous) 0x073e…8416 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 29¢ | $14 | 0x69e7e5… |
| 07-20 19:09:18 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | SELL | 50 | 71¢ | $36 | 0x69e7e5… |
| 07-20 19:09:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 17 | 31¢ | $5 | 0x3030c5… |
| 07-20 19:09:16 | (anonymous) 0x073e…8416 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 32¢ | $16 | 0x3030c5… |
| 07-20 19:09:16 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 32¢ | $16 | 0x3030c5… |
| 07-20 19:09:16 | Useless-Marker 0x0b65…013e | Yes | BUY | 155 | 32¢ | $50 | 0x3030c5… |
| 07-20 19:09:16 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 31¢ | $9 | 0x3030c5… |
| 07-20 19:09:16 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | Yes | BUY | 100 | 32¢ | $32 | 0x3030c5… |
| 07-20 19:09:16 | Aromatic-Carter 0xde28…2115 | Yes | SELL | 400 | 32¢ | $128 | 0x3030c5… |
| 07-20 13:00:03 | Useless-Marker 0x0b65…013e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0xe7a2d4… |
| 07-20 13:00:03 | Right-Undershirt 0x6b13…f125 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0xe7a2d4… |
| 07-19 20:19:36 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 9 | 66¢ | $6 | 0xea54fc… |
| 07-19 20:19:36 | Slow-Exhibit 0x1411…2410 | No | SELL | 9 | 66¢ | $6 | 0xea54fc… |
| 07-19 09:59:36 | Useless-Marker 0x0b65…013e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x29751d… |
| 07-19 09:59:36 | mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | No | BUY | 5 | 68¢ | $3 | 0x29751d… |
| 07-19 09:58:43 | mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | No | BUY | 15 | 68¢ | $10 | 0x098335… |
| 07-19 09:58:43 | Useless-Marker 0x0b65…013e | Yes | BUY | 15 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x098335… |
| 07-19 09:58:13 | Useless-Marker 0x0b65…013e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x42cc21… |
| 07-19 09:58:13 | mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | No | BUY | 5 | 68¢ | $3 | 0x42cc21… |
| 07-19 06:36:45 | mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | Yes | SELL | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x751492… |
| 07-19 06:36:45 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 10 | 67¢ | $7 | 0x751492… |