Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$43,488
$74 in 24h
Trades
1,830
Unique wallets
276
Liquidity
$2,923
Latest YES mid
34¢
Latest NO mid
66¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-14 14:33
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-8.3¢
(top1%: 37% YES on $985
vs crowd: 45% YES on $30.6K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 30 | $2.4K | $4.0K | $1.6K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 45 | $7.1K | $9.4K | $2.3K |
| 🐟 Fish | 72 | $1.8K | $2.1K | $358 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 129 | $2.6K | $1.1K | +$1.5K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 5 | $366 | $619 | $253 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 17 | $660 | $940 | $281 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 10 | $886 | $300 | +$586 |
| Median | 25 | $3.3K | $400 | +$2.9K |
| Below median | 48 | $651 | $954 | $303 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 10 | $678 | $64 | +$614 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 17 | $1.4K | $2.8K | $1.4K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 8 | $925 | $785 | +$140 |
| unranked | 136 | $5.0K | $9.8K | $4.7K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | +9,009 | $4,528 | $8,530 | 252 | 08-14 05:53 |
| Perfumed-Appointment 0x3f3b…1d77 | Yes | +6,522 | $3,006 | $3,006 | 21 | 08-10 10:11 |
| Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | +3,043 | $2,086 | $2,395 | 21 | 08-12 08:10 |
| Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | +1,987 | $1,003 | $1,097 | 33 | 08-11 15:19 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +906 | $510 | $613 | 31 | 08-07 19:42 |
| Sociable-Rooster 0x44c1…ebc1 | Yes | +806 | $277 | $277 | 1 | 07-10 15:41 |
| Past-Punishment 0xb4d2…ce99 | Yes | +667 | $480 | $480 | 2 | 08-14 05:53 |
| Striking-Saucer 0x1e55…e3e2 | No | +606 | $217 | $217 | 2 | 08-12 06:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x7272…1a25 | Yes | +600 | $312 | $312 | 1 | 08-06 18:58 |
| Aromatic-Carter 0xde28…2115 | Yes | +600 | $251 | $786 | 17 | 08-03 12:11 |
| Feline-Resemblance 0xd6a8…58fd | No | +591 | $156 | $271 | 10 | 08-11 18:16 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +589 | $231 | $273 | 20 | 08-14 05:32 |
| Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | +539 | $319 | $565 | 8 | 07-09 15:58 |
| Ethical-Reception 0x8c10…d7b3 | No | +500 | $320 | $320 | 1 | 06-12 14:41 |
| Unwritten-Hybridization 0xdf59…deb0 | No | +469 | $150 | $150 | 2 | 08-12 06:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x30fa…079d | Yes | +420 | $84 | $84 | 1 | 07-08 02:16 |
| Daring-Pirate 0x5446…18f6 | Yes | +420 | $285 | $285 | 3 | 08-07 23:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | +407 | $-60 | $1,312 | 33 | 08-14 14:33 |
| Weak-Threshold 0xbd65…304f | Yes | +355 | $253 | $280 | 4 | 08-08 03:23 |
| Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | +353 | $146 | $167 | 4 | 08-12 06:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +350 | $156 | $156 | 3 | 08-11 17:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x5809…9b2e | Yes | +240 | $67 | $67 | 4 | 06-22 02:57 |
| Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | +226 | $115 | $115 | 1 | 08-06 17:32 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +211 | $146 | $146 | 11 | 07-13 14:44 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +205 | $103 | $103 | 10 | 08-14 07:33 |
| Past-Punishment 0xb4d2…ce99 | No | +200 | $66 | $66 | 3 | 08-14 05:53 |
| Useless-Marker 0x0b65…013e | Yes | +200 | $64 | $64 | 5 | 07-20 19:09 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +195 | $58 | $63 | 15 | 07-13 09:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xf3fa…7be3 | No | +180 | $90 | $90 | 3 | 08-06 04:38 |
| Interesting-Aspic 0x2f52…9fba | No | +150 | $80 | $80 | 3 | 08-05 08:22 |
| Interesting-Aspic 0x2f52…9fba | Yes | +148 | $69 | $69 | 6 | 08-05 14:22 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | +142 | $63 | $63 | 11 | 08-09 14:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6cf…b265 | Yes | +119 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 07-02 14:35 |
| Useful-Patty 0xe086…0450 | Yes | +110 | $56 | $169 | 7 | 08-07 15:02 |
| Useful-Patty 0xe086…0450 | No | +110 | $67 | $207 | 8 | 08-07 16:14 |
| Slimy-Coin 0x2b73…174e | No | +107 | $58 | $108 | 6 | 08-07 19:45 |
| Slimy-Coin 0x2b73…174e | Yes | +107 | $51 | $51 | 3 | 08-06 17:16 |
| Plush-Loft 0xa284…fbba | Yes | +101 | $28 | $122 | 3 | 08-01 05:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x8485…3439 | Yes | +100 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 07-30 23:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x5fbb…acb2 | Yes | +100 | $41 | $41 | 2 | 07-31 18:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xbf93…933c | No | +100 | $76 | $76 | 1 | 07-06 06:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x5fbb…acb2 | No | +100 | $58 | $58 | 2 | 07-31 18:38 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +94 | $63 | $63 | 2 | 06-18 08:17 |
| Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | +90 | $60 | $74 | 4 | 07-26 19:21 |
| Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | Yes | +90 | $22 | $184 | 20 | 07-15 04:08 |
| Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | Yes | +85 | $60 | $60 | 3 | 08-11 09:31 |
| Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | No | +85 | $28 | $265 | 14 | 08-12 06:07 |
| Short-Cloves 0xd104…7c02 | No | +80 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 08-08 14:49 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +79 | $52 | $399 | 40 | 08-14 07:33 |
| albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | +76 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 05-31 09:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xdac9…2de6 | No | +75 | $57 | $57 | 1 | 07-06 06:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x1bbd…45ab | No | +70 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 07-06 06:15 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +67 | $13 | $422 | 16 | 06-30 19:41 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +60 | $49 | $78 | 8 | 08-14 05:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xc324…7f01 | Yes | +55 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-11 07:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3ff…dc64 | No | +55 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-08 03:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xea81…ef04 | No | +55 | $42 | $42 | 1 | 07-06 06:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x2831…d641 | No | +53 | $38 | $38 | 2 | 06-25 07:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | No | +51 | $36 | $164 | 9 | 08-10 22:55 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | +50 | $45 | $280 | 13 | 08-11 14:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 14:33:46 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | No | BUY | 5 | 27¢ | $1 | 0xa2611f… |
| 08-14 14:33:46 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 73¢ | $4 | 0xa2611f… |
| 08-14 12:25:42 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | No | BUY | 6 | 27¢ | $2 | 0x39ee32… |
| 08-14 12:25:42 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 73¢ | $4 | 0x39ee32… |
| 08-14 11:27:45 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | BUY | 40 | 28¢ | $11 | 0x1dbae0… |
| 08-14 11:27:45 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 72¢ | $29 | 0x1dbae0… |
| 08-14 07:33:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 16 | 30¢ | $5 | 0x9bedaa… |
| 08-14 07:33:01 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 29¢ | $9 | 0x9bedaa… |
| 08-14 07:33:01 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 71¢ | $32 | 0x9bedaa… |
| 08-14 05:53:00 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 38¢ | $2 | 0x0979ea… |
| 08-14 05:53:00 | Past-Punishment 0xb4d2…ce99 | Yes | BUY | 334 | 72¢ | $240 | 0x77107e… |
| 08-14 05:53:00 | Past-Punishment 0xb4d2…ce99 | No | BUY | 5 | 38¢ | $2 | 0x0979ea… |
| 08-14 05:53:00 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 334 | 28¢ | $94 | 0x77107e… |
| 08-14 05:37:42 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 72¢ | $18 | 0xf1c89d… |
| 08-14 05:37:42 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 72¢ | $18 | 0xf1c89d… |
| 08-14 05:34:09 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 72¢ | $4 | 0x343dde… |
| 08-14 05:34:09 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 72¢ | $4 | 0x343dde… |
| 08-14 05:32:04 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 68¢ | $20 | 0x509e4c… |
| 08-14 05:32:04 | Past-Punishment 0xb4d2…ce99 | No | BUY | 155 | 35¢ | $54 | 0x509e4c… |
| 08-14 05:32:04 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 50 | 36¢ | $18 | 0x509e4c… |
| 08-14 05:32:04 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | No | SELL | 10 | 36¢ | $4 | 0x509e4c… |
| 08-14 05:32:04 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 50 | 64¢ | $32 | 0x509e4c… |
| 08-14 05:32:03 | Past-Punishment 0xb4d2…ce99 | Yes | BUY | 333 | 72¢ | $240 | 0x60dcc8… |
| 08-14 05:32:03 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | No | SELL | 18 | 28¢ | $5 | 0x60dcc8… |
| 08-14 05:32:03 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 351 | 28¢ | $98 | 0x60dcc8… |
| 08-13 17:41:04 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 50 | 33¢ | $16 | 0x07c3d2… |
| 08-13 17:41:04 | (anonymous) 0x1aed…68d4 | No | BUY | 50 | 33¢ | $16 | 0x07c3d2… |
| 08-13 15:42:54 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 32 | 67¢ | $21 | 0x7b1824… |
| 08-13 15:42:54 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 67¢ | $21 | 0x7b1824… |
| 08-12 19:50:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 36¢ | $11 | 0xce562a… |
| 08-12 19:50:19 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 64¢ | $19 | 0xce562a… |
| 08-12 08:10:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 34¢ | $10 | 0x4070f3… |
| 08-12 08:10:07 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 66¢ | $20 | 0x4070f3… |
| 08-12 08:08:43 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x628995… |
| 08-12 08:08:43 | (anonymous) 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | SELL | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x628995… |
| 08-12 07:50:03 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 64¢ | $32 | 0x307db9… |
| 08-12 07:50:03 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 50 | 36¢ | $18 | 0x307db9… |
| 08-12 06:54:13 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | SELL | 29 | 65¢ | $19 | 0xea79a0… |
| 08-12 06:54:13 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | No | SELL | 14 | 36¢ | $5 | 0xea79a0… |
| 08-12 06:50:33 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | No | BUY | 16 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x228f04… |
| 08-12 06:50:33 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | BUY | 461 | 68¢ | $313 | 0x228f04… |
| 08-12 06:50:33 | Unwritten-Hybridization 0xdf59…deb0 | No | BUY | 445 | 32¢ | $142 | 0x228f04… |
| 08-12 06:45:03 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 65¢ | $20 | 0xef6b04… |
| 08-12 06:45:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 35¢ | $10 | 0xef6b04… |
| 08-12 06:13:43 | Pointed-Pronunciation 0x82cd…d7d8 | No | SELL | 54 | 33¢ | $18 | 0x008e32… |
| 08-12 06:13:43 | Unwritten-Hybridization 0xdf59…deb0 | No | BUY | 24 | 32¢ | $8 | 0x008e32… |
| 08-12 06:13:43 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 67¢ | $20 | 0x008e32… |
| 08-12 06:07:22 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 46 | 33¢ | $15 | 0xc00a23… |
| 08-12 06:07:22 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | No | BUY | 16 | 33¢ | $5 | 0xc00a23… |
| 08-12 06:07:22 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 33¢ | $10 | 0xc00a23… |
| 08-12 06:07:12 | Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | No | SELL | 50 | 35¢ | $18 | 0xb7fa07… |
| 08-12 06:07:12 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 50 | 35¢ | $18 | 0xb7fa07… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | No | BUY | 50 | 36¢ | $18 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | Striking-Saucer 0x1e55…e3e2 | No | BUY | 500 | 36¢ | $180 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 10 | 37¢ | $4 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 51 | 36¢ | $18 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | (anonymous) 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | Pointed-Pronunciation 0x82cd…d7d8 | No | BUY | 54 | 36¢ | $19 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | BUY | 730 | 64¢ | $467 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 06:07:10 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | BUY | 50 | 36¢ | $18 | 0x47b1a4… |
| 08-12 00:53:46 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x78ea3d… |
| 08-12 00:53:46 | (anonymous) 0x2574…144b | Yes | BUY | 39 | 60¢ | $23 | 0x78ea3d… |
| 08-12 00:53:46 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 60¢ | $27 | 0x78ea3d… |
| 08-11 23:54:28 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 63¢ | $4 | 0x6298c4… |
| 08-11 23:54:28 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 11 | 37¢ | $4 | 0x6298c4… |
| 08-11 23:54:28 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x6298c4… |
| 08-11 22:40:18 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 50 | 35¢ | $18 | 0x54fc8b… |
| 08-11 22:40:18 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 6 | 35¢ | $2 | 0x54fc8b… |
| 08-11 22:40:18 | Striking-Saucer 0x1e55…e3e2 | No | BUY | 106 | 35¢ | $37 | 0x54fc8b… |
| 08-11 22:40:18 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 64¢ | $32 | 0x54fc8b… |
| 08-11 22:04:39 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 66¢ | $25 | 0xff464d… |
| 08-11 22:04:39 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | SELL | 38 | 34¢ | $13 | 0xff464d… |
| 08-11 22:01:52 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | BUY | 38 | 31¢ | $12 | 0xef778f… |
| 08-11 22:01:52 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 69¢ | $26 | 0xef778f… |
| 08-11 22:01:13 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 50 | 31¢ | $16 | 0x3ede87… |
| 08-11 22:01:13 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x3ede87… |
| 08-11 22:01:13 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 69¢ | $38 | 0x3ede87… |
| 08-11 21:46:22 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 50 | 34¢ | $17 | 0x4730ee… |
| 08-11 21:46:22 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | No | SELL | 7 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x4730ee… |
| 08-11 21:46:22 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | SELL | 78 | 33¢ | $26 | 0x4730ee… |
| 08-11 21:46:22 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | SELL | 139 | 67¢ | $93 | 0x4730ee… |
| 08-11 21:46:22 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 4 | 34¢ | $1 | 0x4730ee… |
| 08-11 19:05:42 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 70¢ | $4 | 0x4b3ef8… |
| 08-11 19:05:42 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | Yes | SELL | 5 | 70¢ | $4 | 0x4b3ef8… |
| 08-11 18:59:33 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | BUY | 40 | 30¢ | $12 | 0x565804… |
| 08-11 18:59:33 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 70¢ | $28 | 0x565804… |
| 08-11 18:16:21 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | No | BUY | 7 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xd8724c… |
| 08-11 18:16:21 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | Yes | BUY | 228 | 70¢ | $159 | 0xd8724c… |
| 08-11 18:16:21 | Feline-Resemblance 0xd6a8…58fd | No | BUY | 183 | 30¢ | $55 | 0xd8724c… |
| 08-11 18:16:21 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | BUY | 38 | 31¢ | $12 | 0xd8724c… |
| 08-11 17:06:16 | (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | BUY | 209 | 67¢ | $140 | 0x2f85c9… |
| 08-11 17:06:16 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 67¢ | $5 | 0x2f85c9… |
| 08-11 17:06:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | No | SELL | 16 | 33¢ | $5 | 0x2f85c9… |
| 08-11 17:06:16 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | SELL | 233 | 67¢ | $156 | 0x2f85c9… |
| 08-11 17:03:13 | (anonymous) 0x94d9…bc47 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 68¢ | $21 | 0xf71034… |
| 08-11 17:03:13 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0xf71034… |
| 08-11 17:03:13 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | Yes | BUY | 5 | 68¢ | $3 | 0xf71034… |
| 08-11 17:03:13 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | No | SELL | 16 | 32¢ | $5 | 0xf71034… |