Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$2,248
$74 in 24h
Trades
177
Unique wallets
54
Liquidity
$2,923
Latest YES mid
36¢
Latest NO mid
64¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-10 09:38
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-36.5¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $463
vs crowd: 36% YES on $1.6K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $15 | $71 | $56 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 12 | $224 | $687 | $463 |
| 🐟 Fish | 13 | $208 | $140 | +$67 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 21 | $138 | $119 | +$19 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | — | $463 | $463 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $32 | $10 | +$22 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $115 | $66 | +$49 |
| Median | 3 | $102 | — | +$102 |
| Below median | 9 | $39 | $38 | +$1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $72 | $31 | +$42 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $39 | $73 | $34 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $15 | $107 | $92 |
| unranked | 16 | $171 | $230 | $59 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | +700 | $442 | $442 | 7 | 06-08 18:04 |
| Dim-Underwriting 0x91e5…0947 | Yes | +270 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-08 16:51 |
| Trifling-Ravioli 0xf8eb…8473 | Yes | +250 | $90 | $110 | 5 | 06-10 09:38 |
| Plush-Loft 0xa284…fbba | Yes | +203 | $75 | $75 | 1 | 06-08 01:43 |
| Golden-Anguish 0x23a8…8004 | Yes | +119 | $40 | $43 | 5 | 06-01 13:06 |
| Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | +93 | $60 | $124 | 8 | 06-10 09:38 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | +80 | $27 | $27 | 8 | 06-06 15:08 |
| albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | +76 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 05-31 09:26 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +72 | $46 | $46 | 2 | 06-10 09:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x60c6…3b92 | Yes | +55 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-08 03:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3ff…dc64 | No | +55 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-08 03:16 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +50 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-09 20:34 |
| Clear-Cut-Furniture-Drainage 0xa9a0…e259 | No | +45 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 05-31 21:20 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +39 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 06-07 21:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xca1f…d282 | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-06 15:19 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +12 | $4 | $21 | 3 | 06-07 22:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xa754…ec4b | Yes | +10 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-05 08:25 |
| Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | Yes | +10 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-05 20:20 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +9 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-07 09:24 |
| Gripping-Easel 0xd599…6a46 | Yes | +8 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 05-29 00:26 |
| Melodic-Portion 0x772d…0deb | No | +8 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-31 04:46 |
| Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | +7 | $6 | $139 | 8 | 06-08 18:04 |
| Unpleasant-Facelift 0x9a01…0c8d | No | +6 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-29 22:06 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-29 03:47 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-29 03:47 |
| Feminine-Pennant-Disadvantage 0xe1e0…fe32 | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-08 01:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-06 16:41 |
| Beloved-Laryngitis-Hunger 0xb2d5…ff8b | No | +5 | $3 | $10 | 3 | 06-10 09:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-06 15:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x6139…6b7a | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-06 15:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x2df2…9dca | No | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-06 15:26 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery 0xa5e3…4d7e | No | +3 | $1 | $40 | 8 | 05-29 22:06 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 09:38:43 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 22 | 64¢ | $14 | 0xfc840d… |
| 06-10 09:38:43 | Beloved-Laryngitis-Hunger 0xb2d5…ff8b | No | BUY | 5 | 64¢ | $3 | 0xfc840d… |
| 06-10 09:38:43 | Trifling-Ravioli 0xf8eb…8473 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 36¢ | $36 | 0xfc840d… |
| 06-10 09:38:43 | Glued 0x9dd9…08bd | Yes | SELL | 23 | 36¢ | $8 | 0xfc840d… |
| 06-10 09:38:43 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 50 | 64¢ | $32 | 0xfc840d… |
| 06-09 20:34:27 | (anonymous) 0xa706…42f0 | Yes | SELL | 106 | 35¢ | $37 | 0x81aeab… |
| 06-09 20:34:27 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 50 | 35¢ | $18 | 0x81aeab… |
| 06-09 20:34:27 | Trifling-Ravioli 0xf8eb…8473 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 35¢ | $18 | 0x81aeab… |
| 06-09 20:34:27 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 1 | 65¢ | $1 | 0x81aeab… |
| 06-09 20:34:27 | Beloved-Laryngitis-Hunger 0xb2d5…ff8b | No | SELL | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x81aeab… |
| 06-08 18:04:33 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | SELL | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0x4d18e4… |
| 06-08 18:04:33 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 36¢ | $7 | 0x4d18e4… |
| 06-08 18:04:22 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0xaea33c… |
| 06-08 18:04:22 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | BUY | 20 | 63¢ | $13 | 0xaea33c… |
| 06-08 16:51:51 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | BUY | 270 | 63¢ | $170 | 0xb6feb9… |
| 06-08 16:51:51 | Dim-Underwriting 0x91e5…0947 | Yes | BUY | 270 | 37¢ | $100 | 0xb6feb9… |
| 06-08 13:22:19 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | SELL | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0xa1140e… |
| 06-08 13:22:19 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 36¢ | $7 | 0xa1140e… |
| 06-08 13:22:09 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | BUY | 20 | 63¢ | $13 | 0x8ba549… |
| 06-08 13:22:09 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0x8ba549… |
| 06-08 04:59:04 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | SELL | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0x5e8bd0… |
| 06-08 04:59:04 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 36¢ | $7 | 0x5e8bd0… |
| 06-08 04:58:24 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | BUY | 20 | 63¢ | $13 | 0x9f7a5e… |
| 06-08 04:58:24 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0x9f7a5e… |
| 06-08 04:18:28 | (anonymous) 0x0b7c…548b | No | SELL | 8 | 63¢ | $5 | 0x6b2d30… |
| 06-08 04:18:28 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | BUY | 8 | 63¢ | $5 | 0x6b2d30… |
| 06-08 03:17:09 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | SELL | 5 | 64¢ | $3 | 0xf48a10… |
| 06-08 03:17:09 | Beloved-Laryngitis-Hunger 0xb2d5…ff8b | No | BUY | 5 | 64¢ | $3 | 0xf48a10… |
| 06-08 03:16:49 | (anonymous) 0xa3ff…dc64 | No | BUY | 55 | 64¢ | $35 | 0xe709f3… |
| 06-08 03:16:49 | (anonymous) 0x60c6…3b92 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 36¢ | $20 | 0xe709f3… |
| 06-08 01:43:18 | Plush-Loft 0xa284…fbba | Yes | BUY | 203 | 37¢ | $75 | 0x6a2d93… |
| 06-08 01:43:18 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | SELL | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xd2961f… |
| 06-08 01:43:18 | (anonymous) 0x0b7c…548b | No | BUY | 8 | 65¢ | $5 | 0x9f4975… |
| 06-08 01:43:18 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | BUY | 203 | 63¢ | $128 | 0x6a2d93… |
| 06-08 01:43:18 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | SELL | 8 | 65¢ | $5 | 0x9f4975… |
| 06-08 01:43:18 | Feminine-Pennant-Disadvantage 0xe1e0…fe32 | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xd2961f… |
| 06-07 22:51:03 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 35¢ | $9 | 0x4efb2c… |
| 06-07 22:51:03 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | SELL | 25 | 65¢ | $16 | 0x4efb2c… |
| 06-07 21:58:48 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 39 | 64¢ | $25 | 0x21b63f… |
| 06-07 21:58:48 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 50 | 64¢ | $32 | 0x21b63f… |
| 06-07 21:58:48 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 11 | 64¢ | $7 | 0x21b63f… |
| 06-07 21:58:48 | Trifling-Ravioli 0xf8eb…8473 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 36¢ | $36 | 0x21b63f… |
| 06-07 16:09:40 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 39 | 64¢ | $25 | 0x010502… |
| 06-07 16:09:40 | Visible-Bloom 0x03f9…c50b | No | SELL | 39 | 64¢ | $25 | 0x010502… |
| 06-07 09:24:27 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | BUY | 9 | 64¢ | $6 | 0x7d9945… |
| 06-07 09:24:27 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 9 | 64¢ | $6 | 0x7d9945… |
| 06-07 09:24:27 | Rowdy-Position 0x3a59…c2b6 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 36¢ | $0 | 0x7d9945… |
| 06-07 09:23:43 | Rowdy-Position 0x3a59…c2b6 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 36¢ | $5 | 0x430f60… |
| 06-07 09:23:43 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 40 | 64¢ | $26 | 0x430f60… |
| 06-07 09:23:43 | Visible-Bloom 0x03f9…c50b | No | BUY | 28 | 64¢ | $18 | 0x430f60… |
| 06-07 07:36:03 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 11 | 64¢ | $7 | 0x925260… |
| 06-07 07:36:03 | Visible-Bloom 0x03f9…c50b | No | BUY | 11 | 64¢ | $7 | 0x925260… |
| 06-06 23:31:03 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | SELL | 39 | 64¢ | $25 | 0x94aa3a… |
| 06-06 23:31:03 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 39 | 64¢ | $25 | 0x94aa3a… |
| 06-06 23:01:13 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 5 | 64¢ | $3 | 0xc6e249… |
| 06-06 23:01:13 | Direct-Crewman 0x2f44…8202 | No | SELL | 5 | 64¢ | $3 | 0xc6e249… |
| 06-06 22:49:01 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x3c1660… |
| 06-06 22:49:01 | Tiny-Drug 0xaf75…9cd0 | No | SELL | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0x3c1660… |
| 06-06 22:40:52 | Negligible-Curtain 0x1a76…b26b | No | SELL | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0x92c369… |
| 06-06 22:40:52 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x92c369… |
| 06-06 22:38:54 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | BUY | 39 | 66¢ | $25 | 0xa35ab2… |
| 06-06 22:38:54 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | BUY | 110 | 66¢ | $72 | 0xa35ab2… |
| 06-06 22:38:54 | Unfit-Hardboard 0x7e35…1a6c | No | SELL | 148 | 66¢ | $98 | 0xa35ab2… |
| 06-06 16:41:28 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | SELL | 21 | 66¢ | $14 | 0xffa7ae… |
| 06-06 16:41:28 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0xffa7ae… |
| 06-06 16:41:28 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xffa7ae… |
| 06-06 16:41:28 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | BUY | 11 | 66¢ | $8 | 0xffa7ae… |
| 06-06 15:35:37 | (anonymous) 0x6139…6b7a | Yes | BUY | 3 | 31¢ | $1 | 0x4cb522… |
| 06-06 15:35:37 | (anonymous) 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 31¢ | $1 | 0x4cb522… |
| 06-06 15:26:16 | (anonymous) 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 32¢ | $1 | 0x70bd5e… |
| 06-06 15:26:16 | (anonymous) 0x2df2…9dca | No | BUY | 3 | 68¢ | $2 | 0x70bd5e… |
| 06-06 15:22:01 | (anonymous) 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x15652a… |
| 06-06 15:22:01 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x15652a… |
| 06-06 15:19:16 | (anonymous) 0x7e80…631b | No | SELL | 15 | 68¢ | $10 | 0x4c26d8… |
| 06-06 15:19:16 | (anonymous) 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x4c26d8… |
| 06-06 15:19:16 | (anonymous) 0xca1f…d282 | No | BUY | 20 | 68¢ | $14 | 0x4c26d8… |
| 06-06 15:09:00 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0xbdfcbd… |
| 06-06 15:09:00 | Rowdy-Position 0x3a59…c2b6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0xbdfcbd… |
| 06-06 15:09:00 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0xbdfcbd… |
| 06-06 15:08:39 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | BUY | 1 | 66¢ | $1 | 0xe38e08… |
| 06-06 15:08:39 | (anonymous) 0xde2c…ce79 | No | SELL | 1 | 66¢ | $1 | 0xe38e08… |
| 06-06 15:08:37 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | No | SELL | 20 | 66¢ | $13 | 0x6895db… |
| 06-06 15:08:37 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | BUY | 10 | 66¢ | $7 | 0x6895db… |
| 06-06 15:08:30 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x226bb3… |
| 06-06 15:08:30 | Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x226bb3… |
| 06-06 15:08:30 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | No | BUY | 20 | 68¢ | $14 | 0x226bb3… |
| 06-06 14:19:45 | Improbable-Entry 0x7e80…631b | No | BUY | 15 | 66¢ | $10 | 0xa4004d… |
| 06-06 14:19:45 | Tiny-Drug 0xaf75…9cd0 | No | BUY | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0xa4004d… |
| 06-06 14:19:45 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | SELL | 20 | 66¢ | $13 | 0xa4004d… |
| 06-06 14:12:10 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | BUY | 20 | 67¢ | $13 | 0x236047… |
| 06-06 14:12:10 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 20 | 67¢ | $13 | 0x236047… |
| 06-06 14:11:19 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 20 | 67¢ | $13 | 0x68076c… |
| 06-06 14:11:19 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | SELL | 20 | 67¢ | $13 | 0x68076c… |
| 06-06 13:30:52 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0x076d96… |
| 06-06 13:30:52 | Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0x076d96… |
| 06-06 13:30:45 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | BUY | 20 | 67¢ | $13 | 0x8498f9… |
| 06-06 13:30:45 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x8498f9… |
| 06-05 20:20:40 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x04a492… |
| 06-05 20:20:40 | Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x04a492… |
| 06-05 20:20:40 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0x04a492… |