Realized P&L
-$46
Unrealized P&L
-$6
Hit rate
61.2%
Resolved
9
Trades
1,261
lifetime
Volume
$23.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$19
Open exposure
$63
26 positions
First seen
2026-04-13
last 06-30 10:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
51% 29% $-79
Politics
42% 50% +$33
Crypto
4%
Tech
2%
Sports
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
72 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes +14 $11 72¢ $10 $-1 06-02 15:03
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? Yes -31 $-9 30¢ $-9 $-1 06-05 21:55
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes +13 $6 54¢ $7 +$1 06-09 20:09
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +13 $9 46¢ $6 $-3 06-17 11:51
Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +11 $2 54¢ $6 +$4 06-17 11:56
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? Yes -31 $-1 14¢ $-4 $-3 06-06 00:46
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? No +14 $3 28¢ $4 +$1 06-02 14:55
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes -27 $-3 14¢ $-4 $-1 06-02 21:54
Noble FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +4 $5 80¢ $3 $-2 06-25 23:59
Will Nancy Dahlstrom advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No -3 $-3 98¢ $-3 $-0 06-04 02:17
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -24 $-2 $-2 +$0 06-08 13:00
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes +27 $4 $1 $-3 06-04 02:06
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? No -1 $-1 94¢ $-1 $-0 06-04 02:17
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +1 $1 77¢ $1 $-0 06-25 16:33
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -1 $-1 76¢ $-1 +$0 06-04 02:08
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? No -0 $-0 90¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:42
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B? No -1 $-0 38¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:06
Perena FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +1 $-0 50¢ $0 +$0 06-25 03:08
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Yes -1 $-0 36¢ $-0 +$0 06-04 02:13
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? Yes -0 $-0 36¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:07
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No -1 $-0 16¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:08
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027? No -0 $-0 94¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:07
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B? No -1 $-0 14¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:05
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? Yes -0 $-0 18¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:06
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? Yes -1 $-0 $-0 +$0 06-04 02:14
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes -0 $-0 $-0 +$0 06-04 02:06