Realized P&L
-$46
Unrealized P&L
+$2
Hit rate
61.2%
Resolved
9
Trades
1,487
lifetime
Volume
$26.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$63
24 positions
First seen
2026-04-13
last 07-22 20:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
50% 29% $-79
Politics
41% 50% +$33
Crypto
4%
Tech
3%
Sports
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes -46 $-9 24¢ $-11 $-2 07-10 08:55
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes +14 $11 74¢ $10 $-1 06-02 15:03
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +13 $9 67¢ $9 $-0 06-17 11:51
Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +11 $2 46¢ $5 +$3 06-17 11:56
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes +13 $6 33¢ $4 $-1 06-09 20:09
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? Yes -31 $-9 14¢ $-4 +$4 06-05 21:55
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes +27 $4 14¢ $4 $-1 06-04 02:06
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? No +14 $3 26¢ $4 +$1 06-02 14:55
Will Nancy Dahlstrom advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No -3 $-3 99¢ $-3 $-0 06-04 02:17
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes -27 $-3 $-2 +$1 06-02 21:54
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? Yes -31 $-1 $-2 $-1 06-06 00:46
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -24 $-2 $-1 +$0 06-08 13:00
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? No -1 $-1 96¢ $-1 $-0 06-04 02:17
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? No -0 $-0 85¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:42
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B? No -1 $-0 42¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:06
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? Yes -0 $-0 70¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:07
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Yes -1 $-0 30¢ $-0 +$0 06-04 02:13
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No -1 $-0 17¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:08
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027? No -0 $-0 94¢ $-0 $-0 06-04 02:07
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 76¢ $0 $-0 07-09 04:54
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -1 $-1 $-0 +$1 06-04 02:08
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? Yes +0 $1 20¢ $0 $-1 07-16 00:44
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? Yes -0 $-0 $-0 +$0 06-04 02:06
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B? No -1 $-0 $-0 +$0 06-04 02:05