Realized P&L
-$24.6K
Unrealized P&L
-$204
Hit rate
31.8%
Resolved
12,446
Trades
64,445
lifetime
Volume
$709.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$1.46K
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-03
last 10-27 23:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 116 days
Categories
Other
70% 40% -$19,876
Politics
13% 16% -$2,152
Crypto
11% 55% -$865
Tech
4% 16% -$1,200
Sports
2% 21% -$422
Pop-Culture
1% 21% -$132
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1652 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? No +178 $90 82¢ $145 +$55 10-06 22:19
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +148 $58 80¢ $118 +$60 10-09 12:59
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? No +200 $135 52¢ $103 -$32 08-07 19:18
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? Yes +181 $73 48¢ $88 +$15 08-10 19:57
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +108 $64 80¢ $86 +$22 10-27 04:20
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500 No +103 $84 76¢ $78 -$6 08-18 00:09
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +73 $37 98¢ $72 +$35 09-30 18:50
No one announced as next James Bond? No +92 $96 76¢ $70 -$26 10-27 00:20
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +103 $82 58¢ $60 -$22 09-11 06:43
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? No +99 $83 58¢ $58 -$25 10-06 22:51
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +67 $40 82¢ $55 +$15 09-25 18:18
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +82 $58 61¢ $50 -$8 10-17 14:33
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +102 $34 42¢ $43 +$8 09-10 17:17
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +51 $56 82¢ $42 -$14 09-23 12:23
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +50 $40 79¢ $40 $0 10-27 15:14
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +189 $130 20¢ $39 -$91 10-06 23:33
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +66 $61 55¢ $36 -$25 09-13 12:22
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +84 $45 40¢ $34 -$11 09-25 05:51
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +66 $17 46¢ $30 +$13 09-10 17:19
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500 Yes +103 $42 24¢ $25 -$17 08-13 15:20
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +25 $20 96¢ $24 +$4 09-20 19:14
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +109 $94 20¢ $22 -$72 09-26 05:57
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes +92 $34 24¢ $22 -$12 09-28 05:49
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? No +21 $13 99¢ $21 +$7 09-17 23:33
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No +20 $10 99¢ $20 +$10 08-30 00:10
will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669 No +20 $17 97¢ $19 +$2 07-24 21:24
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Yes +97 $95 18¢ $18 -$77 09-29 19:43
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? Yes -50 -$15 32¢ $-16 -$1 10-09 19:06
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes +20 $15 79¢ $16 +$1 09-26 20:10
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No +24 $27 64¢ $16 -$11 10-26 17:18