Realized P&L
+$3.93K
Unrealized P&L
+$171
Hit rate
64.5%
Resolved
458
Trades
8,577
lifetime
Volume
$229.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$27
Open exposure
$8.55K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-13
last 11-01 22:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 100 days
Categories
Other
47% 48% +$2,177
Politics
40% 68% +$552
Crypto
6% 43% -$247
Tech
5% 70% +$1,410
Sports
1% 50% +$42
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
76 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +749 $564 92¢ $686 +$122 09-21 21:51
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +849 $676 70¢ $590 -$86 10-29 23:25
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No +600 $472 88¢ $531 +$59 10-25 19:25
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +630 $533 82¢ $517 -$17 10-30 14:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +572 $33 88¢ $506 +$473 10-25 18:23
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +1,081 $465 40¢ $435 -$30 10-28 14:12
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No +527 $427 80¢ $424 -$3 11-01 23:28
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +440 $338 86¢ $376 +$38 10-25 21:52
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +1,500 $315 24¢ $352 +$38 10-26 06:01
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +1,380 $304 26¢ $352 +$48 09-23 09:41
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? No +1,624 $585 22¢ $349 -$236 10-25 19:37
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? Yes +617 $413 56¢ $342 -$71 10-25 21:49
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +618 $296 55¢ $337 +$41 10-30 14:21
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +954 $291 34¢ $329 +$38 10-25 21:51
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? No +458 $316 67¢ $307 -$9 10-25 21:53
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +991 $256 29¢ $287 +$31 11-01 23:31
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +285 $263 95¢ $270 +$7 10-25 22:04
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +744 $253 34¢ $257 +$4 10-25 22:04
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No +1,025 $289 24¢ $241 -$48 11-01 23:31
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No +3,246 $227 5¢ $170 -$57 10-03 09:35
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes +819 $164 20¢ $168 +$4 10-06 18:22
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +418 $167 38¢ $159 -$8 10-30 14:22
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,554 $228 6¢ $140 -$88 10-25 21:44
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? No +1,676 $204 6¢ $109 -$95 10-05 08:41
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027? No +472 $70 20¢ $92 +$22 10-31 20:49
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes — +829 $93 9¢ $75 -$18 10-25 12:25
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +1,540 $51 4¢ $60 +$9 10-25 21:56
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +119 $63 44¢ $52 -$11 10-24 18:19
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? No +65 $12 34¢ $22 +$10 11-01 22:17
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +626 $15 3¢ $16 +$1 10-25 22:33