Realized P&L
-$421
Unrealized P&L
-$8
Hit rate
10.4%
Resolved
93
Trades
11,937
lifetime
Volume
$251.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$21
Open exposure
$1.46K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-03 18:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Other
62% 12% $-386
Politics
23% 31% $-30
Sports
8% 0% $-5
Tech
5%
Crypto
2%
Pop-Culture
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 392 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes -200 $-120 83¢ $-166 $-46 06-25 06:09
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +100 $85 76¢ $76 $-10 06-15 03:47
Noble FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +77 $72 96¢ $74 +$2 07-03 13:19
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? No -78 $-67 88¢ $-69 $-2 06-10 18:46
Yo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +80 $67 82¢ $66 $-1 07-02 02:49
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -80 $-54 76¢ $-60 $-6 06-01 19:59
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026? No -58 $-48 98¢ $-57 $-9 05-31 01:05
Noble FDV above $700M one day after launch? No +60 $56 94¢ $57 +$1 07-02 06:19
Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corporation? No +70 $62 80¢ $56 $-5 06-20 21:00
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes -200 $-148 25¢ $-50 +$98 06-02 19:59
Will Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes +50 $44 99¢ $50 +$6 06-08 18:12
Noble FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +50 $46 93¢ $47 +$0 06-26 19:25
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? Yes -60 $-38 73¢ $-44 $-6 06-07 13:46
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? No -50 $-40 87¢ $-44 $-4 06-11 17:11
Will Hylo launch a token by September 30, 2026? No +50 $46 82¢ $41 $-4 06-26 01:54
Will the New York Mets clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No +45 $40 91¢ $41 +$1 06-26 22:33
Remote IPO before 2027? No -50 $-40 82¢ $-41 $-0 06-23 05:12
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No -50 $-31 80¢ $-40 $-9 06-16 16:15
X banned in any European country by December 31? No -50 $-40 78¢ $-39 +$1 06-17 17:25
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? No -40 $-36 92¢ $-37 $-1 05-28 14:23
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No -39 $-34 94¢ $-37 $-3 06-04 16:23
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? Yes +80 $24 45¢ $36 +$12 06-17 01:36
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? No -40 $-34 88¢ $-35 $-1 06-12 02:10
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? No +40 $32 81¢ $33 +$0 06-24 17:05
Will the Miami Marlins clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No +45 $41 68¢ $30 $-11 06-22 03:43
Halle Berry as Storm? Yes +62 $31 47¢ $29 $-1 06-15 11:42
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes +50 $39 58¢ $29 $-10 06-29 14:47
Perena FDV above $400M one day after launch? No +31 $27 88¢ $27 +$0 07-01 16:45
Probable FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +30 $27 89¢ $27 $-1 07-03 16:17
MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? No +70 $26 37¢ $26 +$0 06-30 01:15