Realized P&L
-$37
Unrealized P&L
-$9
Hit rate
87.4%
Resolved
331
Trades
4,815
lifetime
Volume
$18.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$375
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-22
last 10-27 21:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 74 days
Categories
Other
65% 83% -$12
Politics
25% 69% -$28
Tech
5% 92% +$3
Crypto
4% 100% +$0
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk • peak 83 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? No +100 $88 88¢ $88 -$1 10-27 21:12
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? No +60 $48 82¢ $49 +$1 10-27 08:36
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +60 $44 70¢ $42 -$2 10-27 16:09
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +50 $41 82¢ $41 $0 10-27 23:05
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +50 $37 77¢ $38 +$2 10-27 16:18
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +50 $31 43¢ $21 -$9 10-21 09:29
us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027 No +51 $21 40¢ $21 $0 10-25 22:29
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 10-21 15:56
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 $0 10-19 17:47
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? No +5 $5 92¢ $5 $0 10-26 15:40
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? No +5 $5 92¢ $5 +$0 10-22 15:37
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +5 $5 91¢ $5 $0 10-26 14:47
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? No +5 $4 88¢ $4 $0 10-21 03:46
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? No +6 $5 74¢ $4 $0 10-27 09:59
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? No +5 $4 86¢ $4 $0 10-22 03:20
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? No +5 $4 84¢ $4 $0 10-12 13:19
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No +5 $4 83¢ $4 +$0 10-25 07:37
will oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027 No +5 $4 78¢ $4 +$0 10-26 01:36
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +5 $4 72¢ $4 +$0 10-23 08:46
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +4 $3 83¢ $3 +$1 09-27 23:47
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +5 $4 64¢ $3 -$1 10-26 21:02
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +5 $3 62¢ $3 +$0 10-27 20:12
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +3 $3 94¢ $3 +$0 09-29 20:40
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +5 $4 46¢ $2 -$2 10-27 01:36
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +5 $2 44¢ $2 $0 10-27 16:59
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? No +5 $2 36¢ $2 -$1 10-17 06:16
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No +2 $2 88¢ $2 +$0 09-03 10:34
will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026 No +1 $1 94¢ $1 +$0 09-13 09:54
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +5 -$1 18¢ $1 +$2 10-26 23:09
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +1 -$1 90¢ $1 +$2 10-26 22:45