Notable-Tin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$108

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.1%

Resolved

Trades

10,476

lifetime

Volume

$4.12M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$393

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 14:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

72% 67% +$60

Other

27% 67% +$48

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	321	$284.6K	149,339	147,505	+1,835	open	—	02-01 06:45
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	502	$269.8K	131,558	147,211	-15,653	open	—	03-04 18:31
trump out as president by march 31	367	$165.1K	75,732	93,211	-17,479	open	—	03-23 04:53
will israel nuke iran by january 31	350	$164.1K	92,800	71,948	+20,852	open	—	01-31 19:35
netanyahu out by march 31 854	335	$155.4K	76,673	83,923	-7,249	open	—	04-01 14:38
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	319	$124.1K	65,332	77,675	-12,343	open	—	04-01 06:16
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	271	$106.7K	67,848	49,258	+18,590	open	—	03-30 00:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	150	$90.1K	43,958	48,000	-4,042	open	—	05-29 18:15
Will the US strike Iran next?	87	$82.5K	33,926	48,918	-14,991	open	—	01-27 22:02
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	186	$78.8K	43,018	40,419	+2,599	open	—	02-01 01:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	95	$75.0K	47,000	29,143	+17,857	open	—	04-09 14:05
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	211	$74.5K	56,472	58,293	-1,821	open	—	03-03 18:03
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	35	$65.8K	38,000	28,000	+10,000	open	—	04-08 13:18
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	189	$64.1K	49,182	31,087	+18,094	open	—	02-28 06:53
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	60	$60.8K	35,967	26,047	+9,921	open	—	02-01 07:38
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	115	$59.9K	33,250	27,416	+5,834	open	—	05-20 16:30
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	15	$57.9K	45,000	13,000	+32,000	open	—	02-03 01:05
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	143	$54.0K	42,261	41,392	+869	open	—	02-28 06:56
will the us strike somalia next 656	91	$53.9K	24,010	30,010	-6,000	open	—	01-26 23:36
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	160	$49.7K	24,205	27,205	-3,000	open	—	03-04 16:40
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	226	$46.0K	22,585	25,516	-2,931	open	—	01-12 00:42
Trump out as President by April 30?	55	$45.9K	21,423	24,950	-3,527	open	—	04-25 02:02
Will the US strike Iran next?	63	$42.5K	25,175	18,312	+6,863	open	—	03-01 22:30
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	54	$41.5K	19,161	23,255	-4,094	open	—	02-10 01:22
Will the US strike Iran next?	85	$41.5K	28,681	13,044	+15,637	open	—	02-11 22:21
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	30	$40.8K	19,000	22,000	-3,000	open	—	06-04 00:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	105	$38.3K	27,000	14,000	+13,000	open	—	04-21 19:58
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	118	$38.1K	27,278	13,339	+13,939	open	—	02-21 00:21
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	97	$36.5K	16,746	20,114	-3,367	open	—	04-26 02:47
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	87	$35.1K	21,000	14,562	+6,438	open	—	05-19 19:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 14:58:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x83552f…
08-11 09:12:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x30b16b…
08-05 02:57:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	85¢	$425	0x392c70…
08-04 11:51:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	80¢	$400	0xfe38d2…
08-03 12:10:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	79¢	$395	0x5e7aa6…
08-03 12:04:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	78¢	$390	0x8e836f…
08-03 10:32:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	464	79¢	$367	0x5f9dcd…
08-03 10:30:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xe002de…
08-03 10:21:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xde6b43…
08-03 10:14:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x054ede…
08-03 09:46:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x540aae…
08-03 09:43:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	17	79¢	$14	0xe6e38f…
08-02 22:45:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0xea0383…
08-02 21:16:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	688	100¢	$686	0x4580b5…
08-02 21:14:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xb0611d…
08-02 21:13:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xd4bbda…
08-02 21:09:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xaeffeb…
08-02 20:34:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe98c02…
08-02 20:33:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	307	100¢	$306	0x49ffed…
08-02 18:16:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x05a119…
08-02 14:46:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0xc579cc…
08-02 03:50:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	85¢	$425	0x4b5013…
08-02 03:50:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	83¢	$415	0xc73e9c…
07-29 11:31:33	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	260	91¢	$236	0x3d0af2…
07-28 18:14:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0x7a786f…
07-26 10:22:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	83	80¢	$67	0x97a039…
07-26 10:20:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	417	80¢	$333	0x024a50…
07-26 07:11:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	499	77¢	$384	0x73a710…
07-26 07:06:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x5681bb…
07-25 23:12:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	75¢	$375	0xa8d826…
07-25 09:03:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	72¢	$360	0x283391…
07-18 18:36:04	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0xa1fb46…
07-18 06:26:36	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$951	0x5f4228…
07-16 17:06:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	77¢	$385	0x2c1609…
07-16 02:44:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	76¢	$380	0x2e95ab…
07-16 01:06:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	76¢	$380	0x75c2c3…
07-15 21:37:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9b9609…
07-15 21:35:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	499	79¢	$394	0x7aa397…
07-15 19:37:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	79¢	$395	0xf50254…
07-14 08:14:37	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	95	95¢	$90	0x19b6f0…
07-14 08:08:53	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	164	95¢	$156	0x1184e7…
07-14 07:01:10	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	611	95¢	$580	0x6c9236…
07-14 06:54:35	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	225	95¢	$214	0x73d145…
07-14 05:24:22	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x1a4d02…
07-14 05:18:41	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x0018f3…
07-14 05:13:52	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	38	95¢	$36	0xc429b5…
07-14 05:12:19	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x9bf048…
07-14 04:58:38	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x969ac1…
07-14 04:53:16	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x81a399…
07-14 03:33:16	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	38	95¢	$36	0x5b5849…
07-14 03:29:14	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	39	95¢	$37	0xc7186c…
07-14 02:47:13	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe898d6…
07-14 02:47:13	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xa1bae2…
07-14 02:47:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe42ac7…
07-14 02:47:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x46b168…
07-14 02:47:08	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x2dca67…
07-14 02:25:04	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0x8998a8…
07-14 02:12:41	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x23b4c5…
07-14 02:09:37	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0x08e089…
07-13 15:31:41	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	178	95¢	$169	0x5d8acf…
07-13 15:30:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x167ad0…
07-13 15:18:23	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x6eef1d…
07-13 14:42:49	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x776ef1…
07-13 14:38:02	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0xf170ff…
07-13 13:34:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0xaf9488…
07-13 13:24:20	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xdc676c…
07-13 13:11:28	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	39	95¢	$37	0x16ca56…
07-13 12:39:52	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xa49fa7…
07-13 12:26:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0x64a351…
07-13 10:30:43	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x7da966…
07-13 10:28:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x9b933d…
07-13 10:21:53	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	500	95¢	$476	0x18fa24…
07-13 09:52:01	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x127e63…
07-13 09:51:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x43ed58…
07-13 09:51:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x375cad…
07-13 09:51:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x03b308…
07-13 09:51:55	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x62471a…
07-13 09:24:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	83¢	$415	0xa57060…
07-13 08:52:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0xf9ddfe…
07-13 06:13:43	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	19	95¢	$18	0x5e6965…
07-13 05:31:43	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	287	95¢	$273	0x5a0a62…
07-13 05:16:31	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0x7b7b51…
07-13 04:28:05	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	32	95¢	$30	0x24ef05…
07-13 03:22:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x37880d…
07-13 02:49:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0xde301b…
07-13 02:39:40	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x47bbca…
07-13 02:06:07	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x629880…
07-13 00:38:47	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0xfe3486…
07-12 03:59:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	81¢	$405	0xe88bbd…
07-12 00:30:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0xdf392f…
07-11 14:33:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	85¢	$425	0xf67ce9…
07-09 18:59:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	91¢	$2,730	0x4b6c13…
07-09 12:52:43	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0xb78128…
07-09 08:23:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x6ddc58…
07-09 00:41:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	83¢	$415	0xe5986e…
07-08 22:15:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	534	84¢	$448	0x2422fc…
07-08 22:14:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$2	0x73c8e3…
07-08 22:14:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x7c61a3…
07-08 22:14:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x199cd7…
07-08 22:11:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	451	84¢	$379	0x93272e…