Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.25K

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

53.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,418

lifetime

Volume

$34.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$30

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-21 23:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

57% 25% +$3,417

Politics

43% 0% $-163

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+65	$30	29¢	$18	$-12	07-19 19:54
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$10	5¢	$10	$-0	07-21 04:50
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-10	$-1	18¢	$-2	$-0	06-20 01:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	229	$8.2K	11,155	1,068	+10,087	No	+$3,248	03-21 21:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	31	$7.8K	2,604	12,369	-9,765	Yes	$-162	03-16 21:27
aapl above 250 on march 31 2026	65	$2.8K	4,551	0	+4,551	open	—	03-16 00:22
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	1	$2.0K	12,000	0	+12,000	open	—	02-20 12:37
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	1	$1000	2,969	0	+2,969	open	—	02-20 12:35
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	1	$1000	1,961	0	+1,961	open	—	02-20 12:35
aapl above 240 on march 31 2026	20	$987	2,435	0	+2,435	open	—	03-16 00:22
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?	11	$888	1,063	0	+1,063	No	+$175	03-21 21:18
aapl above 210 on march 31 2026	27	$658	1,903	0	+1,903	open	—	03-16 14:50
aapl above 270 on march 31 2026	17	$566	1,153	0	+1,153	open	—	03-16 00:21
aapl above 260 on march 31 2026	18	$562	735	0	+735	open	—	03-16 00:20
aapl above 230 on march 31 2026	19	$492	1,335	0	+1,335	open	—	03-16 14:50
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?	92	$365	7,485	227	+7,257	open	—	03-21 21:23
aapl above 330 on march 31 2026	14	$269	1,728	0	+1,728	open	—	03-16 14:50
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	11	$257	376	330	+46	open	—	06-12 10:56
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?	39	$248	3,739	125	+3,614	open	—	03-21 21:17
will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 696 531 583 497	18	$230	923	147	+775	open	—	03-16 23:59
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	20	$219	2,304	2,304	+0	open	—	06-29 12:49
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	6	$142	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 11:55
aapl above 300 on march 31 2026	13	$140	971	0	+971	open	—	03-16 00:18
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	4	$137	80	80	+0	open	—	04-07 14:19
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	21	$131	106	106	+0	open	—	04-07 14:13
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	5	$121	164	111	+53	open	—	06-12 22:51
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	2	$121	96	96	+0	open	—	06-20 01:09
nflx above 180 on march 31 2026	21	$118	60	60	+0	open	—	03-22 08:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	10	$118	311	311	+0	open	—	07-21 16:41
amzn above 260 on march 31 2026	9	$114	77	40	+37	open	—	03-18 09:44
aapl above 290 on march 31 2026	12	$112	637	0	+637	open	—	03-16 00:19
aapl above 220 on march 31 2026	8	$110	393	0	+393	open	—	03-16 00:18
will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	3	$107	114	60	+54	open	—	07-13 14:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 23:50:00	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	171	12¢	$20	0xa446a6…
07-21 21:51:04	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 24 2026 20260714195149523	Yes	SELL	1,099	1¢	$7	0x2ec211…
07-21 21:49:07	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 24 2026 20260714195149523	Yes	BUY	1,099	1¢	$10	0x91b4e8…
07-21 21:01:04	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,111	1¢	$9	0x92653f…
07-21 20:56:28	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,111	1¢	$10	0xc26467…
07-21 20:01:31	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	No	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xc0fefa…
07-21 19:56:04	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,250	1¢	$9	0x0861c0…
07-21 18:41:06	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	112	14¢	$16	0xe5f41d…
07-21 18:41:06	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	62	10¢	$6	0xc461e6…
07-21 18:41:06	israel withdraws from lebanon by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	122	6¢	$7	0x6ca562…
07-21 18:41:06	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2,261	1¢	$11	0x646e6a…
07-21 18:38:31	israel withdraws from lebanon by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	122	8¢	$10	0x22cfd5…
07-21 18:38:30	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	112	18¢	$20	0xbc8f7d…
07-21 18:38:30	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2,261	1¢	$20	0x9352e1…
07-21 18:38:30	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x68d48f…
07-21 18:38:30	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	306	3¢	$10	0x35dfc5…
07-21 18:38:28	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xd3285f…
07-21 18:21:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	24	46¢	$11	0x908de4…
07-21 18:16:06	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,250	0¢	$6	0x43de86…
07-21 18:16:06	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	56	14¢	$8	0x256c4d…
07-21 18:16:04	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	45	20¢	$9	0xd90965…
07-21 18:16:04	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	67	13¢	$9	0xbbd7a9…
07-21 18:12:45	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x6efd43…
07-21 18:12:43	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xb4a09b…
07-21 18:12:43	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x85281a…
07-21 18:12:43	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x77707c…
07-21 18:12:43	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x427347…
07-21 18:01:06	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x7eccc4…
07-21 16:41:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	41	26¢	$11	0x1238cd…
07-21 14:11:06	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	SELL	42	50¢	$21	0x7924de…
07-21 11:36:06	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	699	1¢	$5	0x4e3990…
07-21 11:34:06	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	699	1¢	$10	0x496a03…
07-21 11:31:06	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	873	1¢	$8	0x0727c5…
07-21 11:30:12	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	873	1¢	$10	0xb28efd…
07-21 11:30:12	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x53e675…
07-21 04:50:03	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x5c2c3c…
07-20 23:41:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	111	17¢	$19	0xab2d61…
07-20 22:31:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	2,000	1¢	$12	0xaa0a8c…
07-20 22:31:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	No	SELL	4,500	0¢	$4	0x448105…
07-20 22:28:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	No	BUY	4,500	0¢	$20	0xd0ce83…
07-20 22:28:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0x6acb27…
07-20 22:28:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x287309…
07-20 21:31:06	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	SELL	195	5¢	$10	0xe9d059…
07-20 20:56:04	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	SELL	19	58¢	$11	0xbb3da4…
07-20 20:31:06	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	Yes	SELL	1,111	0¢	$1	0x1914f8…
07-20 20:29:57	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	Yes	BUY	1,111	2¢	$20	0x5c2410…
07-20 19:06:04	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	Yes	SELL	1,789	0¢	$4	0x64eea8…
07-20 19:02:36	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x4dd460…
07-20 19:02:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	41	24¢	$10	0x3a13da…
07-20 19:02:36	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x195e01…
07-20 19:02:34	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	Yes	BUY	1,789	1¢	$20	0x8686b2…
07-20 18:06:04	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	52	19¢	$10	0x4b111b…
07-20 17:26:04	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	Yes	SELL	3,221	0¢	$4	0x6c877d…
07-20 17:22:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	195	5¢	$10	0xb9111e…
07-20 17:22:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x9c4fd6…
07-20 17:22:31	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	Yes	BUY	3,221	1¢	$20	0x340fd9…
07-20 17:22:30	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x146183…
07-19 22:14:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xd0bb46…
07-19 22:14:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x0d2947…
07-19 19:56:04	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	Yes	SELL	114	14¢	$16	0xadb520…
07-19 19:54:45	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	Yes	BUY	114	18¢	$20	0xc813b2…
07-19 19:54:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x578f76…
07-18 18:32:45	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	39	56¢	$22	0x72d003…
07-18 17:17:45	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	63	35¢	$22	0x13012a…
07-18 14:32:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	SELL	22	54¢	$12	0xb89ae6…
07-18 14:11:39	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x9799de…
07-18 14:11:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x306f46…
07-18 14:11:39	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	63	32¢	$20	0x1b75ed…
07-18 14:11:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	BUY	22	44¢	$10	0xf4ad50…
07-18 13:12:43	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	60	14¢	$9	0x26a2ff…
07-18 13:09:58	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x71220c…
07-13 14:19:35	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	SELL	60	96¢	$57	0xb51672…
07-11 23:19:35	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	88	23¢	$20	0xb0a676…
07-11 18:29:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	58	31¢	$18	0xf4a01b…
07-11 18:24:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	24	32¢	$8	0x3622d1…
07-10 09:54:35	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	117	12¢	$14	0xaefcce…
07-10 09:54:35	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	182	8¢	$15	0x71ba9e…
07-10 06:49:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	118	14¢	$16	0xca95a7…
07-09 18:44:35	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	164	13¢	$21	0xb23edb…
07-09 07:04:35	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	225	15¢	$34	0xdaaf77…
07-09 00:29:35	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	104	17¢	$18	0xce4e6b…
07-08 14:59:35	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	SELL	42	18¢	$7	0x20f7de…
07-08 12:09:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	94	12¢	$11	0xe6b46d…
07-08 12:02:17	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0xb4bc33…
07-08 11:58:04	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xacd07d…
07-08 11:58:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x59b030…
07-08 11:16:01	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x01b31b…
07-08 11:14:02	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xcdd789…
07-08 11:14:02	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0x7a9582…
07-08 11:14:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	118	21¢	$25	0x0533c9…
07-08 11:14:01	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x987823…
07-08 11:01:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xac0826…
07-08 11:01:31	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	127	8¢	$10	0x45cd59…
07-08 10:31:29	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	117	21¢	$25	0xda4d6a…
07-08 10:31:29	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	182	14¢	$25	0x62a8e0…
07-08 09:49:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	94	11¢	$10	0xb62b08…
07-01 12:19:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	26	29¢	$7	0x9cd944…
07-01 09:49:35	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	SELL	321	2¢	$7	0x556daa…
07-01 04:59:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	64	25¢	$16	0x458777…
06-30 22:49:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	SELL	312	4¢	$12	0xecddc7…