Realized P&L
+$227
Unrealized P&L
+$17
Hit rate
94.6%
Resolved
341
Trades
4,677
lifetime
Volume
$45.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$3.72K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-23
last 11-02 22:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 67 days
Categories
Other
67% 91% +$267
Politics
27% 89% -$27
Sports
3% 69% -$17
Tech
2% 88% +$4
Crypto
1% 75% +$0
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 148 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1,001 $941 94¢ $946 +$4 10-31 16:31
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes +458 $451 100¢ $456 +$5 11-01 01:29
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +427 $410 96¢ $412 +$2 11-03 12:20
Trump out as President before 2027? No +364 $350 96¢ $352 +$2 11-03 12:27
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +261 $253 98¢ $255 +$3 10-29 23:50
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +239 $233 98¢ $234 +$1 11-03 12:25
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +215 $211 98¢ $211 +$0 11-03 12:24
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +200 $193 98¢ $196 +$4 11-01 21:20
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +158 $155 98¢ $155 -$1 11-02 00:42
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +82 $79 97¢ $79 +$1 10-31 00:09
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +67 $65 98¢ $65 +$0 10-30 00:22
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes +49 $48 96¢ $47 $0 11-03 12:22
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +46 $42 96¢ $44 +$2 11-01 00:29
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +34 $32 99¢ $33 +$1 10-31 00:46
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No +28 $27 96¢ $27 $0 11-03 12:21
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? No +26 $24 97¢ $25 +$1 10-22 08:24
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No +23 $21 92¢ $21 $0 10-31 15:44
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +25 $23 83¢ $20 -$2 10-09 12:36
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No +21 $20 96¢ $20 +$0 11-03 12:26
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? No +16 $15 97¢ $15 +$0 11-03 12:22
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No +15 $14 97¢ $14 +$0 10-27 12:06
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Yes +14 $14 97¢ $14 $0 10-30 02:39
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +14 $18 97¢ $14 -$4 10-04 10:48
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes +14 $13 97¢ $14 +$0 10-22 07:38
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No +12 $12 97¢ $12 +$0 09-21 14:58
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No +10 $10 96¢ $10 $0 10-31 00:04
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? No +9 $9 97¢ $9 $0 10-30 05:24
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No +8 $8 97¢ $8 $0 10-30 04:33
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No +8 $8 95¢ $8 $0 10-29 17:41
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? No +8 $8 96¢ $8 $0 11-01 10:58