Realized P&L
+$200
Unrealized P&L
-$177
Hit rate
72.4%
Resolved
11
Trades
2,238
lifetime
Volume
$149.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$67
Open exposure
$2.45K
22 positions
First seen
2026-04-05
last 06-15 12:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
78% 62% +$281
Other
15% 33% $-81
Crypto
6%
Sports
0%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 303 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -624 $-546 88¢ $-552 $-6 06-15 12:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -425 $-176 98¢ $-415 $-239 06-15 01:55
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -347 $-339 99¢ $-345 $-6 06-13 20:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No +245 $232 95¢ $232 $-1 06-04 19:29
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes +632 $168 29¢ $180 +$12 06-04 22:05
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -173 $-167 95¢ $-164 +$3 06-06 09:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +375 $55 26¢ $99 +$45 06-15 04:43
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +88 $80 93¢ $82 +$2 06-05 04:27
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +393 $-43 21¢ $81 +$124 06-15 00:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +125 $55 50¢ $62 +$7 06-14 01:25
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -48 $-45 94¢ $-46 $-1 06-04 07:17
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes +49 $42 86¢ $42 $-0 06-15 16:05
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes -26 $-25 99¢ $-26 $-1 05-29 22:48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +680 $69 $26 $-43 06-12 19:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No -1,177 $39 $-21 $-59 06-14 22:42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +31 $17 47¢ $14 $-3 06-14 08:00
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes +2,020 $25 $14 $-11 05-29 18:27
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Yes +13 $13 100¢ $13 +$1 06-03 21:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +35 $11 37¢ $13 +$2 06-02 13:08
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No +10 $10 94¢ $10 $-0 06-06 22:51
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes -20 $-8 32¢ $-6 +$2 05-29 04:11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes +384 $10 $5 $-5 06-02 21:22