Realized P&L
+$1
Unrealized P&L
+$41
Hit rate
98.2%
Resolved
4
Trades
4,370
lifetime
Volume
$55.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$13
Open exposure
$2.59K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-29 21:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Other
50% 75% +$1
Politics
49%
Crypto
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
65 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -411 $-405 100¢ $-410 $-5 06-15 18:42
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? No -254 $-253 100¢ $-253 $-0 06-28 18:46
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -272 $-240 88¢ $-240 $-0 06-27 00:34
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No -194 $-192 100¢ $-194 $-2 06-23 22:11
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No -172 $-171 100¢ $-171 $-0 06-21 17:43
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +168 $142 86¢ $145 +$3 06-27 22:21
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -145 $-133 90¢ $-131 +$1 06-14 21:30
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No +131 $124 94¢ $124 $-1 06-25 14:17
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -126 $-117 94¢ $-118 $-1 06-28 14:01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +124 $110 87¢ $108 $-2 06-28 17:08
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No -103 $-105 100¢ $-102 +$3 06-17 08:38
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? No -96 $-95 100¢ $-95 $-0 06-24 20:18
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No +94 $85 100¢ $93 +$8 06-21 21:46
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +83 $76 94¢ $77 +$1 06-29 12:25
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No -74 $-69 94¢ $-70 $-1 06-19 13:37
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No -47 $-47 100¢ $-47 $-0 06-26 07:05
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +33 $31 92¢ $31 $-0 06-27 19:24
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? No -26 $-26 100¢ $-26 $-0 06-12 11:16
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -26 $-24 94¢ $-24 +$0 06-16 14:19
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -27 $-25 86¢ $-23 +$1 06-26 06:08
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No +25 $24 94¢ $23 $-1 06-27 23:02
Trump out as President before 2027? No +18 $17 92¢ $16 $-1 06-28 22:29
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No +12 $-26 100¢ $12 +$38 06-29 15:42
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No +11 $10 96¢ $10 $-0 06-06 23:06
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +12 $9 86¢ $10 +$2 06-29 21:53
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No -9 $-9 100¢ $-9 $-0 06-03 05:57
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -9 $-8 100¢ $-9 $-0 05-31 00:26
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No -7 $-6 92¢ $-6 $-0 06-20 09:45
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No -6 $-4 86¢ $-5 $-1 06-18 19:57
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +3 $2 86¢ $2 +$0 06-29 17:29