Realized P&L
+$1
Unrealized P&L
-$29
Hit rate
98.2%
Resolved
4
Trades
5,751
lifetime
Volume
$60.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$1.73K
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 17:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Other
52% 75% +$1
Politics
47%
Crypto
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
65 active days in 12wk • peak 425 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -217 $-191 90¢ $-194 $-3 07-18 09:43
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +201 $171 86¢ $172 +$1 07-20 22:23
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +167 $160 95¢ $158 $-2 07-16 05:42
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +175 $157 90¢ $157 $-0 07-17 04:11
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No -160 $-151 95¢ $-153 $-2 07-17 17:52
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -153 $-141 94¢ $-144 $-3 07-19 16:44
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -152 $-136 92¢ $-139 $-4 07-08 17:29
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -95 $-92 95¢ $-90 +$1 07-19 21:49
Trump out as President before 2027? No +97 $93 92¢ $90 $-4 07-20 05:56
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -73 $-69 96¢ $-70 $-0 07-03 06:42
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +68 $61 88¢ $60 $-1 07-02 17:43
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No -60 $-58 98¢ $-58 $-1 07-20 12:01
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +58 $51 86¢ $50 $-1 07-21 21:03
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No -32 $-28 88¢ $-28 $-0 07-14 03:14
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No +28 $27 96¢ $27 +$0 07-20 13:50
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No -28 $-22 92¢ $-25 $-3 07-20 16:34
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +26 $24 92¢ $24 $-0 07-19 06:41
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No -22 $-22 97¢ $-21 +$1 07-18 11:22
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +21 $19 90¢ $19 $-0 07-20 09:11
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? No +20 $19 95¢ $19 +$0 07-07 16:26
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No -17 $-15 90¢ $-15 $-0 07-16 23:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +7 $11 90¢ $6 $-4 07-21 15:45
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No +6 $6 94¢ $6 $-0 07-19 06:16
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No +4 $5 96¢ $4 $-0 07-19 21:56
US x China Military clash before 2027? No -1 $2 95¢ $-1 $-3 06-15 00:51
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes -1 $-1 86¢ $-1 +$0 05-28 22:54
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes +0 $2 $0 $-2 07-03 08:12