Realized P&L
-$1.03K
Unrealized P&L
-$299
Hit rate
74.6%
Resolved
118
Trades
483
lifetime
Volume
$64.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$132
Open exposure
$4.88K
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 11-07 14:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 57 days
Categories
Other
39% 66% +$97
Politics
30% 64% +$90
Sports
12% 56% -$1,148
Tech
10% 87% +$275
Crypto
9% 31% -$341
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +650 $543 88¢ $575 +$32 09-07 16:56
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +540 $503 98¢ $531 +$28 05-26 09:21
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No +540 $502 98¢ $529 +$27 06-01 19:26
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? Yes +400 $332 84¢ $336 +$4 10-17 02:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +1,148 $656 29¢ $333 -$323 10-25 17:16
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No +280 $249 98¢ $273 +$24 06-12 05:52
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Yes +340 $204 72¢ $245 +$41 10-15 11:47
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +244 $212 96¢ $235 +$24 09-07 16:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +250 $203 92¢ $231 +$28 09-27 16:02
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +250 $205 90¢ $224 +$19 09-07 16:50
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +250 $205 88¢ $221 +$16 08-19 00:57
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +270 $205 74¢ $200 -$5 10-20 06:22
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191 No +220 $198 90¢ $199 +$1 08-22 09:38
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +130 $104 97¢ $126 +$22 06-01 07:27
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +150 $106 75¢ $112 +$6 09-28 06:26
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +130 $109 86¢ $111 +$2 09-09 13:39
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? No +120 $107 90¢ $109 +$2 09-06 12:48
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +260 $222 40¢ $105 -$117 09-28 16:35
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +100 $72 74¢ $74 +$2 09-06 12:44
will trump visit north korea by december 31 No +60 $54 96¢ $58 +$4 08-18 23:06
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? No +588 $40 4¢ $21 -$19 10-29 16:43
trump meets with putin by november 30 No +128 $45 14¢ $18 -$27 09-28 12:57
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +250 $102 6¢ $14 -$89 09-22 21:53