Competent-Fantasy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$60

Unrealized P&L

+$43

Hit rate

95.6%

Resolved

174

Trades

473

lifetime

Volume

$40.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$85

Open exposure

$2.08K

13 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 11-02 20:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

65% 89% +$25

Politics

24% 81% -$109

Tech

8% 100% +$26

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

0% 50% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+594	$556	98¢	$582	+$26	10-27 13:00
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+500	$475	94¢	$472	-$2	11-02 11:42
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	+456	$439	96¢	$438	$0	11-01 22:02
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+415	$397	97¢	$401	+$4	10-18 02:34
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	+85	$77	98¢	$84	+$7	11-02 20:02
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	+50	$46	97¢	$49	+$3	07-06 15:28
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	-41	-$51	97¢	$-40	+$12	10-27 13:11
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	-490	-$10	2¢	$-8	+$2	10-30 11:32
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+4	$2	98¢	$4	+$2	10-22 12:29
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	+4	$4	94¢	$4	+$0	10-16 17:40
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+83	$5	2¢	$2	-$3	10-06 13:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+13	$6	11¢	$1	-$5	08-16 07:08
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+0	$1	96¢	$0	-$1	07-14 07:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	14	$2.6K	1,651	1,057	+594	open	—	10-27 13:00
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$2.0K	1,003	1,003	+0	Yes	+$2	05-04 12:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	6	$1.7K	855	855	+0	No	+$13	09-26 09:12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	6	$1.6K	827	827	+0	open	—	10-25 03:57
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	11	$1.4K	741	782	-41	open	—	10-27 13:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$1.3K	1,400	0	+1,400	Yes	+$83	10-27 13:16
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	20	$1.2K	662	1,067	-405	open	—	11-02 20:02
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$1.2K	606	606	+0	No	+$3	05-14 14:18
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	3	$838	420	420	+0	No	+$1	10-02 10:58
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	3	$778	400	400	+0	open	—	10-24 13:27
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	12	$776	394	394	+0	No	+$8	10-27 17:44
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	4	$700	703	0	+703	No	+$3	04-28 14:38
Trump out as President by June 30?	2	$606	307	307	-0	No	+$6	06-26 17:52
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	3	$600	602	0	+602	No	+$2	04-28 14:40
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$598	600	0	+600	No	+$2	07-27 12:50
putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	3	$545	300	250	+50	No	+$1	08-15 11:22
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	4	$521	516	11	+505	No	+$6	05-04 13:19
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	4	$502	253	253	+0	No	+$2	06-26 13:35
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$475	500	0	+500	open	—	11-02 11:42
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	4	$439	456	0	+456	open	—	11-01 22:02
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	5	$413	419	0	+419	No	+$7	06-26 13:36
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	1	$400	410	0	+410	open	—	10-22 12:26
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	2	$400	405	0	+405	No	+$6	10-13 06:11
will openai ipo by august 31 2026	3	$397	200	200	+0	No	+$3	08-15 12:32
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	3	$397	415	0	+415	open	—	10-18 02:34
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$396	200	200	+0	No	+$2	08-16 13:38
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$303	153	153	+0	No	+$3	04-02 23:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	2	$301	203	102	+102	No	+$2	06-13 06:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$300	303	0	+303	No	+$3	05-19 11:46
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	7	$245	200	47	+153	No	+$2	07-31 23:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 20:02:16	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x25f4b1…
11-02 11:42:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0x9526dd…
11-01 23:17:40	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x5ca08a…
11-01 22:02:07	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	229	96¢	$220	0xb7a3dd…
11-01 21:17:39	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	71	96¢	$68	0x93c08b…
11-01 15:41:16	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x8184ec…
11-01 10:58:27	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x4874af…
10-30 15:33:10	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xc8e7c8…
10-30 11:32:49	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	490	2¢	$10	0x57890f…
10-28 14:58:44	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xbca2d0…
10-27 17:44:39	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xc36435…
10-27 17:44:39	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x7cc771…
10-27 17:44:39	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0x29038b…
10-27 17:44:38	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x4d8e24…
10-27 16:30:24	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x0e74cf…
10-27 13:16:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xb2bb40…
10-27 13:12:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	94¢	$376	0x2741b0…
10-27 13:11:23	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$480	0xe8ae69…
10-27 13:09:56	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	96¢	$60	0x7558ed…
10-27 13:01:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	800	94¢	$754	0x519910…
10-27 13:00:51	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	735	96¢	$706	0xd0dcb5…
10-27 07:45:42	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xa42738…
10-27 07:45:41	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x3cd0bc…
10-27 07:45:41	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x3152f2…
10-26 21:27:12	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0x5a536c…
10-26 12:30:39	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$191	0xb0f83d…
10-25 10:03:33	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xcb9ff3…
10-25 07:05:41	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	148	99¢	$146	0x1369c9…
10-25 05:13:30	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8063a6…
10-25 05:11:57	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf5cf2e…
10-25 04:16:51	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x264183…
10-25 04:15:39	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	296	96¢	$284	0x69dfde…
10-25 04:06:45	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	394	97¢	$384	0x097d04…
10-25 03:57:54	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	506	98¢	$493	0x22651f…
10-24 23:19:35	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x9fa50c…
10-24 13:28:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	300	97¢	$290	0x17a22e…
10-24 13:27:42	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	SELL	400	98¢	$390	0xe2f087…
10-24 08:48:36	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x073e7a…
10-22 12:31:38	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x588ba3…
10-22 12:30:18	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x217962…
10-22 12:29:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	96	98¢	$94	0xfd70f1…
10-22 12:26:15	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	No	BUY	410	98¢	$400	0x0b7957…
10-21 02:08:57	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd7d0e1…
10-18 02:34:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xe97c7f…
10-18 02:34:06	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xd82ce6…
10-18 02:33:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$101	0x0df5dd…
10-16 17:49:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x634ec7…
10-16 17:45:03	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	30	34¢	$10	0x75dead…
10-16 17:40:27	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	92¢	$42	0x07569e…
10-16 03:51:03	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x2f0990…
10-13 06:11:15	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x018da6…
10-13 06:09:13	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	205	99¢	$203	0x12973f…
10-12 11:13:35	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xb4fa13…
10-11 15:45:03	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xc5e658…
10-11 07:45:48	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x34c7ab…
10-11 07:30:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xe31056…
10-08 09:17:57	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xeebf28…
10-07 18:54:03	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xc5ab19…
10-06 13:13:24	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xcdf78d…
10-05 17:53:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x492ae5…
10-05 17:52:07	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	35¢	$8	0xba9972…
10-05 17:33:17	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xcdfdd3…
10-04 10:37:49	Will annual inflation be 3.0% in September?	No	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x734577…
10-02 14:37:57	Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in September?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xab8f00…
10-02 14:37:57	Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in September?	No	SELL	72	100¢	$71	0x168b21…
10-02 11:02:38	Will annual inflation be 3.0% in September?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x37458e…
10-02 11:01:38	Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in September?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x278532…
10-02 10:58:26	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	420	100¢	$420	0x16f871…
10-01 16:39:54	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x2adb6d…
10-01 06:15:56	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0x09aef9…
10-01 06:14:59	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x439215…
10-01 06:08:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x2815d7…
10-01 06:07:26	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$293	0x10251b…
10-01 06:06:05	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	464	98¢	$456	0x19ac6f…
10-01 06:03:51	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	92	98¢	$91	0x581e8b…
09-30 12:51:59	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	147	99¢	$145	0x819119…
09-27 13:27:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x6c0b01…
09-27 06:32:30	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$195	0x324db3…
09-26 09:15:23	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	250	97¢	$242	0x4c61ba…
09-26 09:12:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	628	100¢	$626	0xa4911b…
09-18 14:59:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xaaca01…
09-18 14:12:08	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x6a5d24…
09-18 14:08:38	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	306	97¢	$297	0x688fa1…
08-31 12:52:33	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf253a4…
08-20 18:57:52	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xd43b5a…
08-19 17:32:45	Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xd16176…
08-17 04:06:13	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x2cbccf…
08-16 17:39:54	Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	SELL	115	5¢	$6	0x22f614…
08-16 14:50:40	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xcd4788…
08-16 14:50:01	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xa1f184…
08-16 14:48:24	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xabfd94…
08-16 14:46:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	400	98¢	$392	0xf114e7…
08-16 14:15:33	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x6a3b2d…
08-16 14:15:04	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3ebe60…
08-16 14:13:51	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xdf80d3…
08-16 14:13:19	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$27	0xc64b84…
08-16 14:12:45	Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x51d8a7…
08-16 14:12:28	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x8752a4…
08-16 13:41:34	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	321	96¢	$310	0x3227da…
08-16 13:38:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xc41d37…