Competent-Fantasy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.6%

Resolved

Trades

276

lifetime

Volume

$20.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 08-15 14:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% 67% +$3

Politics

34% — —

Tech

10% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$2.0K	1,003	1,003	+0	Yes	+$2	05-04 12:59
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$1.2K	606	606	+0	open	—	05-14 14:18
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	8	$717	541	220	+321	open	—	08-14 04:10
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	4	$700	703	0	+703	open	—	04-28 14:38
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	4	$667	455	228	+228	open	—	08-12 14:03
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	3	$600	602	0	+602	open	—	04-28 14:40
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	4	$584	300	322	-22	open	—	07-27 12:55
putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	3	$545	300	250	+50	open	—	08-15 11:22
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	4	$521	516	11	+505	open	—	05-04 13:19
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	3	$452	201	253	-51	open	—	06-26 13:35
will openai ipo by august 31 2026	3	$397	200	200	+0	open	—	08-15 12:32
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	2	$307	321	0	+321	open	—	07-27 12:47
Trump out as President by June 30?	1	$306	0	307	-307	open	—	06-26 17:52
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$303	153	153	+0	open	—	04-02 23:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	2	$301	203	102	+102	open	—	06-13 06:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$300	303	0	+303	open	—	05-19 11:46
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	12	$298	306	0	+306	open	—	08-15 14:32
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	4	$243	131	131	+0	open	—	04-08 00:10
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	3	$212	107	107	+0	open	—	04-20 04:06
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	3	$201	102	102	+0	open	—	04-28 16:09
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 115 139	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	04-08 18:15
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	06-26 17:45
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	06-09 15:55
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	1	$200	201	0	+201	open	—	05-14 14:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	05-25 19:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	05-14 14:29
cs2 ast10 mibr 2026 04 04	2	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	04-04 13:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	05-29 15:52
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$199	200	0	+200	open	—	04-28 22:32
will openai ipo by july 31 2026	4	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	07-05 05:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-15 14:32:37	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xe2201b…
08-15 14:28:30	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	48	97¢	$47	0x2caa74…
08-15 14:26:16	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x9672e9…
08-15 14:24:18	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xa95732…
08-15 14:22:54	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x8a2069…
08-15 13:53:16	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x6f05fd…
08-15 13:45:46	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x6a19fd…
08-15 13:44:40	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x05e7a4…
08-15 13:14:04	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	110	98¢	$107	0xed0279…
08-15 12:32:24	will openai ipo by august 31 2026	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x30e89e…
08-15 11:27:00	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x870cf5…
08-15 11:22:43	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0x1dd4da…
08-15 03:04:30	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x2d008e…
08-14 17:26:33	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x94ac89…
08-14 14:42:58	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x41a645…
08-14 13:47:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x92ed73…
08-14 13:07:22	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x31ba7f…
08-14 13:01:58	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	97¢	$54	0xbadf24…
08-14 04:10:06	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	220	95¢	$209	0x5ff5c0…
08-12 14:03:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	228	98¢	$223	0xad6bca…
08-09 10:39:52	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x626fd5…
08-08 19:21:27	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	24	35¢	$8	0x3adc4f…
08-08 19:14:04	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	90¢	$50	0x373ec2…
08-06 07:13:30	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xd68400…
08-06 07:13:02	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xaa8960…
08-05 12:16:42	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x499ba5…
08-05 12:15:15	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xa0f69a…
08-05 12:11:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	205	97¢	$200	0xf8f749…
08-03 13:15:48	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xe64143…
08-03 13:03:39	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x831da6…
08-03 04:14:59	Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x9a5991…
08-01 06:35:27	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x800593…
08-01 06:34:15	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x1a243e…
08-01 06:32:51	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x94e4be…
08-01 06:31:39	will openai ipo by august 31 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x4f77f9…
08-01 06:31:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xe3eadd…
07-30 04:47:38	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xcb8c16…
07-29 13:34:33	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x07e18e…
07-29 13:32:15	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x01ed87…
07-27 12:55:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x3de4b2…
07-27 12:47:33	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	300	96¢	$287	0x8dfa89…
07-26 15:41:09	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xc60cd1…
07-22 17:06:04	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xf83050…
07-20 11:47:03	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0xda916c…
07-20 00:20:28	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	78	94¢	$74	0x0f5b52…
07-19 18:09:36	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8aff6c…
07-19 16:44:21	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x64d886…
07-19 16:40:09	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x980d0f…
07-14 23:52:47	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x90b3f1…
07-14 21:24:08	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x1a00e5…
07-14 07:28:50	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xbcc423…
07-14 07:26:19	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x1e3960…
07-14 05:40:02	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x506e7f…
07-14 05:23:34	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xb4fb1d…
07-14 05:18:07	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xbaf293…
07-14 05:13:20	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x9f36af…
07-14 05:12:50	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x0ec6cd…
07-14 01:02:17	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xe038d3…
07-14 01:00:43	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xad8f00…
07-14 01:00:38	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xc214ae…
07-14 01:00:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xe9fb20…
07-14 01:00:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xe91c82…
07-14 01:00:31	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x32b54a…
07-13 21:12:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0xa68d2e…
07-13 20:44:07	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x58b1bc…
07-13 18:44:20	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x673d56…
07-06 15:32:41	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xd89079…
07-06 15:28:53	US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xe49974…
07-06 15:27:25	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xf69e8a…
07-05 07:31:47	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xfae736…
07-05 07:31:07	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x0000b7…
07-05 05:41:28	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0xfbee1d…
07-04 13:57:29	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	122	95¢	$116	0x0bb3ad…
07-04 08:52:13	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	22	100¢	$21	0xe25126…
07-04 08:37:53	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc12cd0…
07-02 06:16:10	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x58a1c1…
07-02 05:36:05	Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xc1e9ee…
07-02 05:32:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x42035a…
07-02 05:22:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x8e4fc5…
07-02 05:08:23	will king abdullah ii sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950084	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc73614…
06-29 10:43:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x68ee6c…
06-29 10:36:58	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xded403…
06-29 10:32:01	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x9043c6…
06-29 07:40:56	will base launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xf2fd9f…
06-29 07:40:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x5bdf90…
06-29 07:38:34	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xf3037e…
06-29 07:35:26	will openai ipo by august 31 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4735c6…
06-29 07:34:34	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5732e7…
06-26 17:52:23	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	307	100¢	$306	0x88634b…
06-26 17:45:25	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xc0431d…
06-26 13:35:39	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	152	100¢	$152	0x6323ac…
06-20 16:09:59	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xc7bacb…
06-20 16:05:49	Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x35a80a…
06-20 16:04:10	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x996518…
06-20 15:57:41	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$187	0x5cdb7d…
06-13 06:53:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x1f7c7c…
06-12 04:48:19	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$100	0xbc584e…
06-09 16:26:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$185	0xbdf160…
06-09 15:55:13	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x40a147…
06-01 17:41:30	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x7d4b40…