Competent-Fantasy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

95.6%

Resolved

Trades

207

lifetime

Volume

$16.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$613

8 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 07-05 07:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% 67% +$3

Politics

34% — —

Tech

11% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	+130	$120	94¢	$123	+$3	06-01 17:28
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	-122	$-118	95¢	$-116	+$2	07-04 13:57
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$93	93¢	$93	+$0	07-02 05:36
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	+100	$87	86¢	$86	$-0	06-29 10:32
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	+51	$50	100¢	$51	+$1	07-02 05:32
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	+50	$48	97¢	$49	+$1	06-29 07:38
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	+50	$48	96¢	$48	+$0	06-29 07:40
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	+50	$46	94¢	$47	+$1	06-29 10:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$2.0K	1,003	1,003	+0	Yes	+$2	05-04 12:59
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$1.2K	606	606	+0	open	—	05-14 14:18
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	4	$700	703	0	+703	open	—	04-28 14:38
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	3	$600	602	0	+602	open	—	04-28 14:40
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	4	$521	516	11	+505	open	—	05-04 13:19
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	3	$488	200	322	-122	open	—	07-04 13:57
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	3	$452	201	253	-51	open	—	06-26 13:35
Trump out as President by June 30?	1	$306	0	307	-307	open	—	06-26 17:52
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$303	153	153	+0	open	—	04-02 23:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	2	$301	203	102	+102	open	—	06-13 06:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$300	303	0	+303	open	—	05-19 11:46
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	4	$243	131	131	+0	open	—	04-08 00:10
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	3	$212	107	107	+0	open	—	04-20 04:06
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	3	$201	102	102	+0	open	—	04-28 16:09
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 115 139	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	04-08 18:15
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	06-26 17:45
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	06-09 15:55
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	1	$200	201	0	+201	open	—	05-14 14:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	05-14 14:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	05-25 19:54
cs2 ast10 mibr 2026 04 04	2	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	04-04 13:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	05-29 15:52
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$199	200	0	+200	open	—	04-28 22:32
will openai ipo by july 31 2026	4	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	07-05 05:41
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	2	$198	103	103	+0	open	—	05-05 05:08
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	2	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	07-02 06:16
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 380 399	2	$182	93	92	+0	open	—	04-13 18:14
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	4	$177	181	0	+181	open	—	04-20 19:05
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	5	$177	92	92	+0	Yes	+$1	04-25 05:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$150	101	50	+51	open	—	04-20 04:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 07:31:47	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xfae736…
07-05 07:31:07	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x0000b7…
07-05 05:41:28	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0xfbee1d…
07-04 13:57:29	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	122	95¢	$116	0x0bb3ad…
07-04 08:52:13	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	22	100¢	$21	0xe25126…
07-04 08:37:53	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc12cd0…
07-02 06:16:10	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x58a1c1…
07-02 05:36:05	Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xc1e9ee…
07-02 05:32:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x42035a…
07-02 05:22:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x8e4fc5…
07-02 05:08:23	will king abdullah ii sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950084	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc73614…
06-29 10:43:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x68ee6c…
06-29 10:36:58	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xded403…
06-29 10:32:01	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x9043c6…
06-29 07:40:56	will base launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xf2fd9f…
06-29 07:40:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x5bdf90…
06-29 07:38:34	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xf3037e…
06-29 07:35:26	will openai ipo by august 31 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4735c6…
06-29 07:34:34	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5732e7…
06-26 17:52:23	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	307	100¢	$306	0x88634b…
06-26 17:45:25	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xc0431d…
06-26 13:35:39	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	152	100¢	$152	0x6323ac…
06-20 16:09:59	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xc7bacb…
06-20 16:05:49	Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x35a80a…
06-20 16:04:10	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x996518…
06-20 15:57:41	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$187	0x5cdb7d…
06-13 06:53:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x1f7c7c…
06-12 04:48:19	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$100	0xbc584e…
06-09 16:26:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$185	0xbdf160…
06-09 15:55:13	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x40a147…
06-01 17:41:30	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x7d4b40…
06-01 17:41:16	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0x489a4a…
06-01 17:35:10	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x5c7b0d…
06-01 17:34:34	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x4adeec…
06-01 17:28:26	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	92¢	$120	0x06e742…
06-01 17:26:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0xc0ab9d…
05-29 15:52:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x31707f…
05-25 19:54:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0xdd807e…
05-19 11:46:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xd2f47b…
05-17 11:12:04	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x46995c…
05-17 11:11:47	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x96c78b…
05-14 14:29:41	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0x602f5d…
05-14 14:29:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x1de522…
05-14 14:19:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0xb8aafc…
05-14 14:18:46	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	606	100¢	$603	0x415a9b…
05-05 05:08:28	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	103	95¢	$98	0xf7fe11…
05-04 13:19:06	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	302	99¢	$300	0xbebc12…
05-04 13:18:28	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	606	99¢	$600	0xc09879…
05-04 13:11:50	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x56f8d8…
05-04 12:59:08	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,003	100¢	$1,002	0x736d65…
05-02 21:03:34	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,003	100¢	$1,000	0x442714…
05-02 04:57:28	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0x5a126a…
04-28 22:32:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x4b6efb…
04-28 16:09:46	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x70f7ae…
04-28 14:40:22	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	501	100¢	$500	0xf061a6…
04-28 14:38:00	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	501	100¢	$500	0x0fa8a0…
04-28 09:19:00	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x41b937…
04-25 05:43:48	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x7b9112…
04-25 05:41:30	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	42	98¢	$42	0x14ef7f…
04-20 19:05:30	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0xd02367…
04-20 08:43:46	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x6c7615…
04-20 04:09:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xd62918…
04-20 04:07:46	Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x1ef505…
04-20 04:06:30	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0x36ee59…
04-20 04:06:14	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0xaaca60…
04-19 16:45:32	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x0f16af…
04-19 16:45:12	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x307fca…
04-19 16:38:50	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xa14124…
04-19 16:35:52	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0x95a955…
04-18 13:09:40	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	42	94¢	$40	0x36b846…
04-16 10:02:52	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x9fc47e…
04-16 10:02:40	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x15da8e…
04-16 10:01:40	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xf7954f…
04-16 10:00:02	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x194e16…
04-16 09:58:58	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x3616a8…
04-15 17:50:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x8c3359…
04-15 17:45:04	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0xa963a1…
04-13 18:20:03	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	67	97¢	$65	0x07cdd1…
04-13 18:14:57	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 380 399	No	SELL	92	99¢	$92	0x6e94fe…
04-13 12:04:19	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0xde497f…
04-13 12:00:45	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 380 399	No	BUY	93	97¢	$90	0x030f4d…
04-12 20:26:39	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x358ce8…
04-12 20:06:59	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	No	SELL	39	94¢	$37	0x7e3e4d…
04-12 20:06:19	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 6 12	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x2e4c0d…
04-12 19:53:49	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x8da5e3…
04-12 19:53:15	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xc2f4c5…
04-12 16:39:53	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x5db9e1…
04-12 06:00:41	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x123d4e…
04-12 06:00:21	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x78f345…
04-12 05:54:17	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0x9ba50e…
04-12 02:33:35	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf66220…
04-12 02:33:35	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x643803…
04-11 14:07:57	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt0 and 4pt5	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xa5dee1…
04-11 08:30:05	will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5b445b…
04-11 08:19:51	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x94b9a1…
04-11 06:52:41	us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	Yes	BUY	151	99¢	$150	0xf4eda9…
04-11 06:36:15	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x643132…
04-11 06:25:39	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt0 and 4pt5	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xa971be…
04-11 05:58:43	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt5 and 6pt0	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xa48f77…
04-11 05:55:43	will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 6 12	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xe082f0…