Competent-Fantasy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.6%

Resolved

Trades

234

lifetime

Volume

$16.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$72

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 07-22 17:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% 67% +$3

Politics

35% — —

Tech

10% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$2.0K	1,003	1,003	+0	Yes	+$2	05-04 12:59
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$1.2K	606	606	+0	open	—	05-14 14:18
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	4	$700	703	0	+703	open	—	04-28 14:38
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	3	$600	602	0	+602	open	—	04-28 14:40
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	4	$521	516	11	+505	open	—	05-04 13:19
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	3	$488	200	322	-122	open	—	07-04 13:57
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	3	$452	201	253	-51	open	—	06-26 13:35
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	6	$308	330	0	+330	open	—	07-22 17:06
Trump out as President by June 30?	1	$306	0	307	-307	open	—	06-26 17:52
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$303	153	153	+0	open	—	04-02 23:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	2	$301	203	102	+102	open	—	06-13 06:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$300	303	0	+303	open	—	05-19 11:46
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	4	$243	131	131	+0	open	—	04-08 00:10
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	3	$212	107	107	+0	open	—	04-20 04:06
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	3	$201	102	102	+0	open	—	04-28 16:09
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 115 139	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	04-08 18:15
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	06-26 17:45
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	06-09 15:55
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	1	$200	201	0	+201	open	—	05-14 14:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	05-14 14:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	05-25 19:54
cs2 ast10 mibr 2026 04 04	2	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	04-04 13:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	05-29 15:52
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$199	200	0	+200	open	—	04-28 22:32
will openai ipo by july 31 2026	4	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	07-05 05:41
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	2	$198	103	103	+0	open	—	05-05 05:08
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	2	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	07-02 06:16
Trump out as President before 2027?	17	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	07-14 07:28
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 380 399	2	$182	93	92	+0	open	—	04-13 18:14
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	4	$177	181	0	+181	open	—	04-20 19:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 17:06:04	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xf83050…
07-20 11:47:03	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0xda916c…
07-20 00:20:28	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	78	94¢	$74	0x0f5b52…
07-19 18:09:36	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8aff6c…
07-19 16:44:21	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x64d886…
07-19 16:40:09	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x980d0f…
07-14 23:52:47	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x90b3f1…
07-14 21:24:08	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x1a00e5…
07-14 07:28:50	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xbcc423…
07-14 07:26:19	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x1e3960…
07-14 05:40:02	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x506e7f…
07-14 05:23:34	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xb4fb1d…
07-14 05:18:07	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xbaf293…
07-14 05:13:20	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x9f36af…
07-14 05:12:50	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x0ec6cd…
07-14 01:02:17	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xe038d3…
07-14 01:00:43	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xad8f00…
07-14 01:00:38	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xc214ae…
07-14 01:00:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xe9fb20…
07-14 01:00:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xe91c82…
07-14 01:00:31	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x32b54a…
07-13 21:12:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0xa68d2e…
07-13 20:44:07	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x58b1bc…
07-13 18:44:20	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x673d56…
07-06 15:32:41	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xd89079…
07-06 15:28:53	US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xe49974…
07-06 15:27:25	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xf69e8a…
07-05 07:31:47	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xfae736…
07-05 07:31:07	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x0000b7…
07-05 05:41:28	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0xfbee1d…
07-04 13:57:29	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	122	95¢	$116	0x0bb3ad…
07-04 08:52:13	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	22	100¢	$21	0xe25126…
07-04 08:37:53	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc12cd0…
07-02 06:16:10	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x58a1c1…
07-02 05:36:05	Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xc1e9ee…
07-02 05:32:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x42035a…
07-02 05:22:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x8e4fc5…
07-02 05:08:23	will king abdullah ii sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950084	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc73614…
06-29 10:43:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x68ee6c…
06-29 10:36:58	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xded403…
06-29 10:32:01	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x9043c6…
06-29 07:40:56	will base launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xf2fd9f…
06-29 07:40:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x5bdf90…
06-29 07:38:34	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xf3037e…
06-29 07:35:26	will openai ipo by august 31 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4735c6…
06-29 07:34:34	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5732e7…
06-26 17:52:23	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	307	100¢	$306	0x88634b…
06-26 17:45:25	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xc0431d…
06-26 13:35:39	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	152	100¢	$152	0x6323ac…
06-20 16:09:59	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xc7bacb…
06-20 16:05:49	Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x35a80a…
06-20 16:04:10	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x996518…
06-20 15:57:41	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$187	0x5cdb7d…
06-13 06:53:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x1f7c7c…
06-12 04:48:19	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$100	0xbc584e…
06-09 16:26:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$185	0xbdf160…
06-09 15:55:13	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x40a147…
06-01 17:41:30	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x7d4b40…
06-01 17:41:16	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0x489a4a…
06-01 17:35:10	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x5c7b0d…
06-01 17:34:34	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x4adeec…
06-01 17:28:26	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	92¢	$120	0x06e742…
06-01 17:26:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0xc0ab9d…
05-29 15:52:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x31707f…
05-25 19:54:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0xdd807e…
05-19 11:46:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xd2f47b…
05-17 11:12:04	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x46995c…
05-17 11:11:47	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x96c78b…
05-14 14:29:41	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0x602f5d…
05-14 14:29:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x1de522…
05-14 14:19:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0xb8aafc…
05-14 14:18:46	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	606	100¢	$603	0x415a9b…
05-05 05:08:28	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	103	95¢	$98	0xf7fe11…
05-04 13:19:06	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	302	99¢	$300	0xbebc12…
05-04 13:18:28	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	606	99¢	$600	0xc09879…
05-04 13:11:50	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x56f8d8…
05-04 12:59:08	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,003	100¢	$1,002	0x736d65…
05-02 21:03:34	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,003	100¢	$1,000	0x442714…
05-02 04:57:28	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0x5a126a…
04-28 22:32:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x4b6efb…
04-28 16:09:46	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x70f7ae…
04-28 14:40:22	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	501	100¢	$500	0xf061a6…
04-28 14:38:00	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	501	100¢	$500	0x0fa8a0…
04-28 09:19:00	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x41b937…
04-25 05:43:48	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x7b9112…
04-25 05:41:30	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	42	98¢	$42	0x14ef7f…
04-20 19:05:30	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0xd02367…
04-20 08:43:46	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x6c7615…
04-20 04:09:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xd62918…
04-20 04:07:46	Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x1ef505…
04-20 04:06:30	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0x36ee59…
04-20 04:06:14	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0xaaca60…
04-19 16:45:32	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x0f16af…
04-19 16:45:12	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x307fca…
04-19 16:38:50	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xa14124…
04-19 16:35:52	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0x95a955…
04-18 13:09:40	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	42	94¢	$40	0x36b846…
04-16 10:02:52	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x9fc47e…
04-16 10:02:40	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x15da8e…
04-16 10:01:40	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xf7954f…