Realized P&L (7d)
+$8.79K
Unrealized P&L
+$60.2K
Hit rate
91.1%
Resolved (7d)
11
Trades (7d)
686
69,392 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$564.7K
$196.3M lifetime
Avg / trade
$2.83K
Open exposure
$2.07M
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-14 16:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 189 days
Categories
Politics
47%
97%
+$334,760
Other
42%
97%
+$625,622
Crypto
6%
96%
+$47,013
Sports
4%
68%
+$18,707
Tech
1%
97%
+$10,706
Pop-Culture
0%
100%
+$389
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1531 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +552,334 | $527,218 | 98¢ | $542.4K | +$15,174 | 11-14 10:38 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +358,460 | $339,842 | 97¢ | $349.3K | +$9,477 | 11-14 15:51 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +346,272 | $336,542 | 98¢ | $340.6K | +$4,017 | 11-12 12:42 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +195,064 | $189,161 | 98¢ | $190.9K | +$1,710 | 11-14 03:43 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | +151,374 | $145,648 | 98¢ | $148.7K | +$3,077 | 11-13 04:12 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +70,085 | $68,043 | 98¢ | $69.0K | +$956 | 11-09 11:07 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | +51,981 | $46,638 | 97¢ | $50.5K | +$3,836 | 11-14 13:18 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +45,357 | $43,582 | 99¢ | $44.7K | +$1,140 | 11-04 20:13 | |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | No | +35,955 | $34,156 | 98¢ | $35.4K | +$1,205 | 10-31 16:34 | |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | +36,293 | $32,465 | 94¢ | $34.3K | +$1,831 | 11-06 02:10 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +24,240 | $23,876 | 99¢ | $24.0K | +$109 | 11-09 00:05 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | No | +23,014 | $22,971 | 100¢ | $23.0K | +$20 | 11-14 13:18 | |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | +21,495 | $13,384 | 98¢ | $21.0K | +$7,659 | 11-14 12:46 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | +21,211 | $20,735 | 98¢ | $20.9K | +$159 | 11-08 23:37 | |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | +16,730 | $15,663 | 98¢ | $16.4K | +$750 | 11-12 21:01 | |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | +15,209 | $13,959 | 98¢ | $15.0K | +$998 | 07-20 13:52 | |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | No | +14,526 | $13,703 | 98¢ | $14.2K | +$490 | 11-05 21:45 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | +14,129 | $12,384 | 98¢ | $13.8K | +$1,434 | 10-04 10:36 | |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | No | +14,000 | $13,577 | 96¢ | $13.4K | -$172 | 11-13 23:23 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | +12,500 | $12,195 | 99¢ | $12.4K | +$161 | 11-13 17:38 | |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | +11,631 | $11,200 | 98¢ | $11.4K | +$198 | 11-13 22:07 | |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | No | +11,651 | $10,563 | 98¢ | $11.4K | +$814 | 11-04 03:11 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,775 | $6,459 | 97¢ | $10.4K | +$3,965 | 11-05 06:04 | |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | No | +9,478 | $8,982 | 97¢ | $9.2K | +$235 | 10-31 00:04 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | No | +8,818 | $8,613 | 99¢ | $8.7K | +$130 | 11-13 12:31 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026? | No | +7,896 | $7,825 | 100¢ | $7.9K | +$63 | 11-14 06:06 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | +7,700 | $7,519 | 99¢ | $7.6K | +$69 | 11-13 14:48 | |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? | No | +7,888 | $7,014 | 93¢ | $7.3K | +$294 | 11-01 10:58 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | +7,500 | $6,991 | 91¢ | $6.8K | -$181 | 11-13 04:43 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | +6,500 | $5,825 | 98¢ | $6.4K | +$552 | 11-06 09:53 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 653 | $7.44M | 7,244,163 | 239,927 | +7,004,236 | No | +$46,227 | 06-03 21:41 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 1,329 | $7.17M | 7,228,840 | 0 | +7,228,840 | Yes | +$55,418 | 03-18 17:37 |
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 483 | $6.49M | 6,500,088 | 0 | +6,500,088 | Yes | +$6,500 | 07-08 16:37 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 1,299 | $6.42M | 6,478,925 | 4,121 | +6,474,804 | Yes | +$57,949 | 01-28 18:46 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 229 | $6.42M | 6,436,645 | 0 | +6,436,645 | No | +$19,210 | 04-30 19:49 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 587 | $6.38M | 6,380,275 | 16,536 | +6,363,739 | Yes | +$4,986 | 04-10 12:16 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 390 | $4.87M | 4,875,898 | 0 | +4,875,898 | No | +$10,140 | 07-29 16:21 |
| will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31 | 173 | $4.71M | 4,718,020 | 0 | +4,718,020 | Yes | +$4,718 | 03-25 23:40 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 763 | $4.64M | 4,620,975 | 50,000 | +4,570,975 | Yes | +$25,997 | 04-08 00:34 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 865 | $4.23M | 4,202,717 | 55,307 | +4,147,409 | Yes | +$18,387 | 03-02 03:45 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026 | 87 | $3.96M | 3,961,922 | 0 | +3,961,922 | Yes | +$3,962 | 04-18 00:28 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 540 | $3.88M | 3,901,136 | 0 | +3,901,136 | Yes | +$16,870 | 04-29 16:48 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 241 | $3.56M | 3,062,868 | 507,077 | +2,555,791 | No | +$6,109 | 01-04 21:15 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 923 | $3.31M | 3,373,991 | 0 | +3,373,991 | No | +$67,901 | 03-04 19:26 |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 159 | $3.26M | 3,236,477 | 31,596 | +3,204,881 | No | +$5,723 | 05-13 18:34 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 317 | $3.23M | 3,234,273 | 0 | +3,234,273 | Yes | +$4,731 | 03-13 17:32 |
| Trump kiss by May 31? | 406 | $2.89M | 2,893,377 | 0 | +2,893,377 | Yes | +$2,893 | 05-22 19:18 |
| will melania say career during ai talk on friday | 253 | $2.78M | 2,781,206 | 0 | +2,781,206 | No | +$3,361 | 01-20 22:11 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 619 | $2.74M | 2,757,037 | 0 | +2,757,037 | No | +$15,837 | 09-16 17:55 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 255 | $2.63M | 2,639,860 | 5,000 | +2,634,860 | Yes | +$10,087 | 02-03 07:28 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | 236 | $2.51M | 1,511,090 | 1,000,000 | +511,090 | Yes | +$3,818 | 06-17 21:53 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 21 | $2.50M | 2,500,000 | 0 | +2,500,000 | Yes | +$2,500 | 05-09 17:55 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 89 | $2.47M | 2,471,546 | 0 | +2,471,546 | Yes | +$2,472 | 04-24 10:52 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | 785 | $2.43M | 2,450,680 | 0 | +2,450,680 | Yes | +$15,846 | 06-16 16:56 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 268 | $2.38M | 2,323,041 | 65,751 | +2,257,290 | Yes | +$6,576 | 06-01 23:21 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 199 | $2.37M | 2,391,942 | 0 | +2,391,942 | No | +$19,549 | 09-16 17:57 |
| will the us strike somalia next 656 | 247 | $2.29M | 2,294,000 | 0 | +2,294,000 | Yes | +$2,644 | 01-26 13:47 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 382 | $2.21M | 2,352,501 | 0 | +2,352,501 | Yes | +$143,048 | 10-28 17:56 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 368 | $2.09M | 2,097,127 | 0 | +2,097,127 | Yes | +$7,343 | 06-17 07:58 |
| will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021 | 64 | $2.00M | 2,000,068 | 0 | +2,000,068 | Yes | +$3,550 | 07-23 00:11 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||