Purple-Erosion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$768

Unrealized P&L

+$320

Hit rate

61.2%

Resolved

849

Trades

5,516

lifetime

Volume

$211.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

$556

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 10-23 15:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 190 days

Categories

Politics

63% 51% +$1,365

Other

28% 51% -$50

Crypto

8% 70% -$547

Tech

1% 55% -$33

Sports

0% 33% +$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	+558	$165	55¢	$305	+$140	10-06 06:02
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	No	+545	-$10	45¢	$247	+$258	10-03 10:44
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	+10	$6	26¢	$3	-$3	09-15 23:37
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+2	$1	61¢	$1	+$0	10-05 17:35
will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	+0	-$1	82¢	$0	+$1	08-06 16:40
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	Yes	+0	$76	2¢	$0	-$76	08-22 10:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	38	$11.9K	50,966	50,966	+0	Yes	+$108	04-08 05:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	61	$11.2K	19,656	19,272	+384	No	-$184	05-25 20:10
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	78	$9.5K	5,767	5,767	+0	No	+$32	06-10 16:28
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	43	$9.1K	8,224	7,664	+560	No	+$59	06-03 16:19
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	41	$8.6K	5,658	5,658	+0	Yes	-$32	07-29 16:29
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	35	$6.9K	6,576	6,576	+0	Yes	-$219	04-14 07:41
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	96	$6.1K	7,571	6,230	+1,341	Yes	+$335	05-28 20:50
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	58	$4.7K	4,203	3,790	+413	No	-$68	07-31 15:51
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	43	$3.4K	6,087	6,557	-470	No	+$83	05-20 01:53
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	56	$3.3K	5,268	4,303	+965	No	+$123	04-16 03:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	36	$3.0K	4,560	4,920	-360	No	+$146	04-24 14:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	12	$3.0K	2,280	2,280	+0	No	+$113	05-23 19:33
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	38	$2.4K	1,800	3,700	-1,900	Yes	-$1,322	08-28 14:42
will iran strike oman again in march	31	$2.3K	1,835	1,928	-92	No	+$620	04-05 00:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	44	$2.2K	5,231	5,151	+80	No	-$387	04-21 17:52
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	49	$2.2K	1,976	1,776	+200	No	+$307	04-03 16:58
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	40	$2.0K	2,855	2,455	+400	Yes	-$37	08-06 21:02
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	43	$2.0K	4,790	4,656	+134	Yes	+$31	04-16 19:21
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	26	$1.9K	1,303	1,303	+0	open	—	08-19 18:17
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	35	$1.8K	1,854	1,714	+140	Yes	-$23	04-16 15:22
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	91	$1.8K	22,359	19,361	+2,998	No	+$58	04-13 14:28
will iran strike uae again in march	22	$1.7K	2,920	2,920	+0	Yes	-$525	04-06 04:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	20	$1.6K	2,100	2,100	+0	No	+$6	05-25 19:55
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	16	$1.5K	3,730	1,230	+2,500	No	+$379	04-03 07:55
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	58	$1.5K	4,196	3,093	+1,103	open	—	10-06 06:02
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	14	$1.5K	867	867	+0	open	—	09-21 15:02
will turnout in the 2025 honduran general election be between 60 and 65	8	$1.4K	1,128	1,128	+0	Yes	-$37	04-10 18:02
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$1.4K	1,400	500	+900	No	+$4	08-28 14:35
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	37	$1.3K	3,896	3,836	+60	No	-$390	04-23 22:09
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	13	$1.3K	1,683	1,683	+0	No	-$242	05-29 22:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 15:17:23	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$2	0xfbb761…
10-23 15:17:23	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0xe61227…
10-19 02:06:15	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0xace5cd…
10-18 06:43:53	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0x99a5e3…
10-17 23:28:45	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0x66000b…
10-17 23:28:45	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	47	31¢	$15	0x1b33d2…
10-17 22:04:05	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	No	SELL	362	30¢	$108	0x73c002…
10-17 22:03:14	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x47dd66…
10-17 22:02:59	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xcccc1f…
10-16 20:23:39	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	SELL	90	3¢	$3	0xb1451e…
10-16 20:23:26	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x89fe57…
10-16 20:21:17	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	BUY	290	6¢	$17	0xe1393e…
10-16 07:22:12	will skhy reach 147 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	55	25¢	$14	0x972105…
10-15 20:03:28	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0xe83597…
10-15 19:20:11	will skhy reach 147 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	45	73¢	$33	0x516c96…
10-15 18:13:56	will pltr reach 201 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0xe0bad3…
10-15 15:22:26	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	38¢	$16	0x7aaf8b…
10-15 14:04:13	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	40	31¢	$12	0x588171…
10-14 20:26:55	will abnb dip to 160 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x85d4c0…
10-14 14:17:17	will xagusd dip to 55 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xeb87e7…
10-14 14:10:02	will msft dip to 532 50 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	45	51¢	$23	0x6f585c…
10-13 05:17:33	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x2a2bff…
10-10 09:02:45	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $160 in October?	No	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x42ec6c…
10-10 09:02:45	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $160 in October?	No	SELL	60	42¢	$25	0x215a5e…
10-10 08:57:12	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $160 in October?	No	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0xcdc00f…
10-10 08:56:58	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $160 in October?	No	SELL	28	42¢	$12	0x8e6c6c…
10-10 08:56:40	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $160 in October?	No	BUY	110	22¢	$24	0x8b524b…
10-09 15:20:43	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x2b2cd1…
10-09 12:29:01	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0xe29edf…
10-09 09:37:01	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	54¢	$31	0x398b09…
10-09 08:03:10	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0x688efc…
10-08 19:59:47	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xde73e2…
10-08 13:51:47	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xf0ae23…
10-08 13:40:24	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x09aa89…
10-08 12:06:02	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $158 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x5ac344…
10-08 07:51:21	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $165 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	33	84¢	$28	0x8bec8f…
10-07 17:21:50	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xfd2ef0…
10-07 10:38:05	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $775 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	60	28¢	$17	0xaeefa4…
10-07 06:25:26	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $176 in October?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xcc85e6…
10-07 06:10:50	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $177 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xfc0e6e…
10-06 19:36:12	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $177 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	4	62¢	$3	0x1a0c37…
10-06 19:20:56	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $177 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xf43aec…
10-06 19:05:41	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $177 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xbe0e19…
10-06 10:19:15	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 in October?	No	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0x72dbfd…
10-06 10:19:15	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 in October?	No	BUY	13	65¢	$8	0x12f5ef…
10-06 10:14:00	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $192 in October?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x51af2f…
10-06 09:30:24	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $180 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	33	56¢	$18	0xbe302d…
10-06 08:22:57	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $174 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	33	78¢	$26	0x090383…
10-06 08:10:01	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $174 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	33	79¢	$26	0x6ec802…
10-06 07:26:01	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 in October?	No	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0xfa9f94…
10-06 07:26:00	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 in October?	No	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0xfb086f…
10-06 06:52:51	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 in October?	No	BUY	7	63¢	$5	0x95f768…
10-06 06:52:51	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $184 in October?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x06a0a2…
10-06 06:52:51	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 in October?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x016d13…
10-06 06:02:01	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	11¢	$5	0x71f8b3…
10-05 21:44:46	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $210 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x78545d…
10-05 17:52:14	bitcoin up or down on october 5 2026	Down	BUY	200	62¢	$123	0x07a946…
10-05 17:35:40	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x700f99…
10-05 17:35:31	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x808890…
10-05 17:35:13	bitcoin up or down on october 5 2026	Down	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xf02290…
10-05 17:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x6dc37d…
10-05 17:20:41	bitcoin up or down on october 5 2026	Down	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xb7da9a…
10-05 17:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0x93a17f…
10-05 17:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	80	70¢	$56	0x705152…
10-05 17:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	17	68¢	$12	0x9aab70…
10-05 17:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	78	68¢	$53	0xccf1dd…
10-05 17:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x9cb46d…
10-05 13:49:55	will msft reach 532 50 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xc52388…
10-05 10:52:14	will abnb reach 164 in october 2026 from october 3	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x6bf855…
10-05 10:51:32	will abnb reach 164 in october 2026 from october 3	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x6073f2…
10-05 10:51:31	will abnb reach 164 in october 2026 from october 3	No	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x6d66fa…
10-05 10:22:28	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	BUY	279	30¢	$84	0x55235a…
10-05 09:20:01	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	30¢	$67	0x63298f…
10-05 08:45:25	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x8e1c37…
10-04 19:49:04	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $172 in October?	No	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0xaaa431…
10-04 18:59:04	Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	62¢	$10	0x0d0506…
10-04 17:55:02	Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xd8ac0c…
10-04 17:52:58	Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	62¢	$10	0x226e53…
10-04 17:49:07	will abnb reach 164 in october 2026 from october 3	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x3b7aa0…
10-04 17:32:46	will abnb reach 164 in october 2026 from october 3	Yes	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xcf0dd4…
10-04 17:26:59	will abnb reach 164 in october 2026 from october 3	Yes	BUY	31	59¢	$18	0x6d914f…
10-04 16:59:52	Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0xeabb8f…
10-04 16:03:34	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	No	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x0dbb48…
10-03 10:44:51	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x3d954a…
10-02 16:24:26	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	90	81¢	$73	0xbbf5e8…
10-02 16:07:39	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xf1eef0…
10-02 16:01:24	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xdba012…
10-02 15:56:15	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x06f849…
10-02 15:32:48	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0x37d7a7…
10-02 13:58:24	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $194 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0xdf9c7b…
10-02 13:01:41	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	42	54¢	$23	0x457034…
10-02 11:27:48	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x736406…
10-02 07:54:53	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0x3c785c…
10-02 07:23:41	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $198 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	33	58¢	$19	0x04f1f0…
10-02 07:17:30	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0xa4ed66…
10-02 07:17:14	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x5be154…
10-01 18:38:14	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xa81fff…
10-01 17:33:59	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x024dca…
10-01 16:17:59	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $228 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xeb1f80…
10-01 15:03:35	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	46¢	$20	0xfc9673…