Murky-Oversight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.35K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.6%

Resolved

Trades

310,697

lifetime

Volume

$4.50M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 04-26 13:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

40% — —

Other

39% 89% +$91

Sports

17% 88% +$4,254

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 631 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2,279	$740.4K	758,660	877,324	-118,663	open	—	03-04 16:17
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	493	$310.0K	0	330,527	-330,527	open	—	01-28 18:59
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	148	$181.1K	24,115	200,548	-176,434	open	—	03-06 15:07
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2,252	$128.9K	112,990	1,523,331	-1,410,341	open	—	03-04 16:17
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	69	$87.5K	88,095	46,428	+41,668	open	—	04-14 15:41
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	2,185	$69.4K	23,760	1,473,271	-1,449,511	open	—	03-04 16:17
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	2,460	$66.9K	0	183,076	-183,076	open	—	02-09 02:32
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	2,154	$63.9K	59,699	1,468,959	-1,409,260	open	—	03-04 16:17
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	149	$58.8K	41,872	183,242	-141,370	open	—	03-06 15:07
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	2,264	$57.6K	6,146	1,609,104	-1,602,958	open	—	03-04 16:18
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	15	$57.4K	64,950	0	+64,950	open	—	04-12 19:07
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1,185	$53.6K	0	77,082	-77,082	open	—	02-08 18:23
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	12	$51.1K	51,494	0	+51,494	No	+$393	04-24 14:20
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	2,282	$46.5K	14,101	1,468,112	-1,454,011	open	—	03-04 16:16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	68	$44.8K	43,598	90,997	-47,399	open	—	04-26 13:12
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	12	$43.9K	44,030	7,464	+36,566	No	+$181	04-24 14:20
will the los angeles rams win super bowl 2026	2,380	$40.0K	0	166,374	-166,374	open	—	01-26 01:59
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	2,470	$39.5K	0	183,165	-183,165	open	—	02-09 02:32
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	1,648	$38.7K	0	51,654	-51,654	open	—	02-20 16:02
will laura virginia fernndez delgado win the 2026 costa rican presidential election	45	$35.8K	0	36,165	-36,165	open	—	02-02 04:30
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	159	$33.7K	32,492	191,845	-159,353	open	—	03-06 15:07
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	162	$31.3K	483	53,883	-53,400	open	—	02-08 21:34
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	72	$30.9K	30,621	103,400	-72,779	open	—	04-14 15:42
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	17	$29.6K	29,815	1,014	+28,801	open	—	04-12 15:21
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	654	$27.2K	0	38,304	-38,304	open	—	02-19 16:28
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	581	$27.1K	0	36,413	-36,413	open	—	02-19 04:42
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?	1,111	$25.4K	24,147	1,023,785	-999,638	open	—	03-04 16:17
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	230	$24.6K	3,425	30,743	-27,318	open	—	02-19 04:29
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	16	$24.1K	24,160	5,534	+18,627	open	—	04-12 15:20
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	159	$23.7K	483	54,269	-53,786	open	—	02-08 21:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
04-26 13:12:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x41db99…
04-24 19:05:14	lal bet rea 2026 04 24 rea	No	BUY	712	51¢	$363	0xf584ce…
04-24 19:05:14	lal bet rea 2026 04 24 draw	No	BUY	712	77¢	$548	0xc65012…
04-24 19:05:10	lal bet rea 2026 04 24 bet	No	BUY	712	69¢	$492	0x4e2ef5…
04-24 14:20:58	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,943	0¢	$17	0xe2d06e…
04-24 14:20:58	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,943	0¢	$17	0xd964a0…
04-24 14:20:58	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,943	0¢	$17	0x74f9b6…
04-24 14:20:58	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,943	0¢	$17	0x54f4b2…
04-24 14:20:58	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,943	0¢	$17	0x3fedbf…
04-24 14:20:58	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,943	0¢	$17	0x00a28a…
04-24 14:20:54	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	16,943	1¢	$237	0x73f5c9…
04-24 14:20:54	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	16,943	100¢	$16,892	0x5333a0…
04-24 14:20:52	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	16,943	99¢	$16,841	0xa8c497…
04-24 14:20:46	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,894	100¢	$2,882	0xe19f92…
04-24 14:20:46	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,894	99¢	$2,877	0xdc5627…
04-24 14:20:46	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,894	1¢	$41	0xb69dae…
04-24 14:20:46	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,894	100¢	$2,891	0xb2979f…
04-24 14:20:46	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,894	100¢	$2,891	0x8bd3e1…
04-24 14:20:46	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,894	100¢	$2,891	0x53f036…
04-24 14:20:46	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,894	100¢	$2,891	0x0a8e4b…
04-24 14:20:46	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,894	100¢	$2,891	0x063e04…
04-24 14:20:46	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,894	100¢	$2,891	0x04713e…
04-24 14:20:42	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,312	0¢	$16	0xfb74b0…
04-24 14:20:42	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,312	0¢	$16	0xe2729d…
04-24 14:20:42	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,312	0¢	$16	0xab0ac0…
04-24 14:20:42	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,312	0¢	$16	0x70c25b…
04-24 14:20:42	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,312	0¢	$16	0x3c1bd4…
04-24 14:20:42	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	16,312	0¢	$16	0x1fa13c…
04-24 14:20:38	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	16,312	1¢	$228	0xfa872e…
04-24 14:20:38	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	16,312	99¢	$16,198	0xaf790e…
04-24 14:20:38	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	16,312	100¢	$16,263	0x32cdf7…
04-24 14:19:48	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,584	0¢	$11	0x8b1c9b…
04-24 14:19:42	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,584	0¢	$4	0xfe54c9…
04-24 14:19:38	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,682	0¢	$4	0x2aacf6…
04-24 14:19:34	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,584	0¢	$4	0x3af8cc…
04-24 14:19:28	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,584	0¢	$4	0x0230d8…
04-24 14:19:24	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,584	0¢	$4	0x4fa61d…
04-24 14:17:24	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	3,584	2¢	$65	0xd654f2…
04-24 14:17:24	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	3,584	100¢	$3,577	0x735b31…
04-24 14:17:24	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	3,584	99¢	$3,551	0x3afc27…
04-24 14:17:22	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,711	2¢	$31	0xf97d36…
04-24 14:17:22	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,711	100¢	$1,709	0xd3a1cd…
04-24 14:17:22	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,711	100¢	$1,709	0xcedf28…
04-24 14:17:22	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,711	100¢	$1,704	0xc9ee37…
04-24 14:17:22	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,711	100¢	$1,709	0xbe1c5a…
04-24 14:17:22	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,711	100¢	$1,709	0x66764d…
04-24 14:17:22	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,711	100¢	$1,709	0x61cd57…
04-24 14:17:22	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,711	99¢	$1,695	0x3a78a2…
04-24 14:17:22	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,711	100¢	$1,707	0x1cd52f…
04-24 14:17:18	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,063	100¢	$2,061	0xfe039f…
04-24 14:17:18	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,063	100¢	$2,058	0xf9ada5…
04-24 14:17:18	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,063	100¢	$2,061	0xc78412…
04-24 14:17:18	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,063	100¢	$2,061	0xb94dd7…
04-24 14:17:18	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,063	100¢	$2,061	0x90b858…
04-24 14:17:18	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,063	99¢	$2,044	0x7664e0…
04-24 14:17:18	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,063	2¢	$35	0x639efb…
04-24 14:17:18	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,063	100¢	$2,054	0x614675…
04-24 14:17:18	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,063	100¢	$2,061	0x0273e5…
04-24 14:07:08	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,880	0¢	$4	0x6a1361…
04-24 14:07:06	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,880	0¢	$8	0xf11c62…
04-24 14:07:06	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,880	1¢	$22	0x6c5ce2…
04-24 14:07:06	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,880	0¢	$4	0x4b5a35…
04-24 14:07:06	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,880	97¢	$3,768	0x482c9e…
04-24 14:07:06	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,880	0¢	$15	0x47cc55…
04-24 14:07:02	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	3,880	99¢	$3,838	0xa61d20…
04-24 14:07:00	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	3,880	100¢	$3,865	0xb8ab3a…
04-24 14:07:00	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	3,880	100¢	$3,873	0x374762…
04-24 14:06:58	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,010	100¢	$2,002	0xf4b463…
04-24 14:06:58	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,010	3¢	$58	0xbef922…
04-24 14:06:58	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,010	100¢	$2,008	0xb74d16…
04-24 14:06:58	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,010	100¢	$2,006	0xa99f45…
04-24 14:06:58	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,010	99¢	$1,986	0x6211f2…
04-24 14:06:58	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,010	100¢	$2,006	0x535fcb…
04-24 14:06:58	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,010	100¢	$2,008	0x4b421f…
04-24 14:06:58	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,010	100¢	$2,000	0x3be18b…
04-24 14:06:58	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,010	100¢	$2,002	0x1b3774…
04-24 14:06:56	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	765	100¢	$762	0xee62e3…
04-24 14:06:56	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	765	100¢	$764	0xbd6409…
04-24 14:06:56	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	765	100¢	$761	0xa79fda…
04-24 14:06:56	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	765	100¢	$764	0x9baa5a…
04-24 14:06:56	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	765	100¢	$764	0x82cd23…
04-24 14:06:56	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	765	100¢	$762	0x6c1e20…
04-24 14:06:56	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	765	99¢	$755	0x60da24…
04-24 14:06:56	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	667	100¢	$665	0x3fddc9…
04-24 14:06:56	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	765	3¢	$22	0x11a870…
04-24 14:06:54	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	551	100¢	$548	0xe5eb52…
04-24 14:06:54	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	551	3¢	$16	0xdc27b6…
04-24 14:06:54	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	551	100¢	$550	0xbb8387…
04-24 14:06:54	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	551	100¢	$548	0xb7d745…
04-24 14:06:54	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	551	99¢	$548	0x9bc921…
04-24 14:06:54	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	551	99¢	$548	0x96f1d0…
04-24 14:06:54	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	551	99¢	$544	0x8b1c92…
04-24 14:06:54	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	551	100¢	$550	0x4b69cd…
04-24 14:06:54	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	551	100¢	$550	0x376ef9…
04-24 14:06:52	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	372	100¢	$371	0xf590e7…
04-24 14:06:52	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	372	100¢	$371	0xdb423c…
04-24 14:06:52	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	372	99¢	$367	0xaa952f…
04-24 14:06:52	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	372	100¢	$370	0x79708b…
04-24 14:06:52	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	372	100¢	$370	0x62a86b…
04-24 14:06:52	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	372	100¢	$371	0x550587…