Realized P&L
+$2.73K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.48K
Hit rate
91.1%
Resolved
19
Trades
17,135
lifetime
Volume
$5.25M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$306
Open exposure
$94.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 17:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Other
59%
80%
+$1,668
Politics
31%
67%
+$1,063
Tech
8%
—
—
Sports
1%
—
—
Pop-Culture
1%
—
—
Crypto
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk
• peak 222 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | -21,768 | $-20,377 | 94¢ | $-20353 | +$24 | 07-18 10:56 | |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | No | +10,203 | $10,122 | 100¢ | $10.2K | +$34 | 07-19 20:27 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | +17,790 | $11,101 | 55¢ | $9.7K | $-1,406 | 07-14 12:05 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +17,545 | $11,323 | 55¢ | $9.6K | $-1,761 | 07-08 08:28 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +9,500 | $8,030 | 92¢ | $8.7K | +$662 | 07-18 19:31 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +4,000 | $3,720 | 94¢ | $3.7K | +$20 | 07-16 17:09 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | Yes | -3,955 | $-3,183 | 93¢ | $-3694 | $-511 | 06-12 14:00 | |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | +3,166 | $2,808 | 96¢ | $3.0K | +$227 | 06-25 03:48 | |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | No | +3,143 | $2,770 | 92¢ | $2.9K | +$106 | 07-15 18:36 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | No | +4,808 | $2,572 | 56¢ | $2.7K | +$120 | 07-15 12:58 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | +3,000 | $2,670 | 90¢ | $2.7K | +$15 | 07-17 09:46 | |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | -2,137 | $-1,990 | 94¢ | $-2019 | $-29 | 07-20 01:26 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | No | +2,000 | $1,770 | 86¢ | $1.7K | $-60 | 07-15 14:06 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | +1,121 | $675 | 94¢ | $1.1K | +$384 | 07-10 13:06 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | Yes | +2,263 | $1,200 | 46¢ | $1.1K | $-148 | 07-20 17:01 | |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? | No | +1,150 | $998 | 90¢ | $1.0K | +$43 | 07-18 12:53 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | +1,000 | $930 | 99¢ | $986 | +$56 | 06-22 14:35 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | +1,000 | $783 | 99¢ | $986 | +$202 | 07-19 08:21 | |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | No | +1,000 | $942 | 96¢ | $962 | +$20 | 07-02 12:46 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | No | -1,000 | $-930 | 92¢ | $-925 | +$5 | 07-17 10:39 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +1,000 | $870 | 86¢ | $855 | $-15 | 06-25 10:14 | |
| Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | +993 | $810 | 84¢ | $833 | +$23 | 07-20 06:46 | |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? | No | +802 | $722 | 92¢ | $742 | +$20 | 07-18 06:06 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | +3,150 | $508 | 22¢ | $693 | +$185 | 07-20 12:03 | |
| Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | +705 | $642 | 92¢ | $645 | +$4 | 07-11 15:42 | |
| Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? | No | +610 | $415 | 96¢ | $589 | +$173 | 07-08 14:58 | |
| Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? | No | +527 | $432 | 94¢ | $495 | +$63 | 07-07 14:22 | |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | No | +490 | $380 | 95¢ | $466 | +$86 | 06-14 14:23 | |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | No | +500 | $465 | 88¢ | $440 | $-25 | 07-20 14:57 | |
| Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027? | No | -294 | $-281 | 94¢ | $-278 | +$3 | 07-07 07:29 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 469 | $307.9K | 147,662 | 166,154 | -18,492 | open | — | 04-13 14:37 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 161 | $191.8K | 126,910 | 70,555 | +56,356 | open | — | 03-18 17:50 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 258 | $144.6K | 78,653 | 71,545 | +7,108 | open | — | 04-28 07:24 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 90 | $140.8K | 100,025 | 43,476 | +56,549 | open | — | 03-04 18:21 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | 307 | $133.9K | 72,595 | 63,179 | +9,416 | open | — | 04-30 21:18 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 281 | $122.4K | 61,964 | 62,882 | -917 | open | — | 03-27 16:25 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 87 | $100.4K | 58,286 | 43,278 | +15,007 | open | — | 04-30 07:10 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15 | 46 | $90.5K | 44,397 | 46,518 | -2,121 | open | — | 03-16 14:26 |
| bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting | 484 | $86.6K | 45,441 | 41,555 | +3,886 | open | — | 03-18 19:20 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | 276 | $85.4K | 48,376 | 37,591 | +10,785 | open | — | 03-08 21:08 |
| will gta 6 cost 100 | 156 | $79.4K | 67,570 | 12,339 | +55,231 | open | — | 03-01 01:14 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | 421 | $75.7K | 36,150 | 40,686 | -4,535 | open | — | 05-24 12:56 |
| will microstrategy be delisted from the msci index by march 31 | 101 | $68.9K | 52,510 | 18,329 | +34,181 | open | — | 04-01 00:47 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 111 | $59.5K | 28,360 | 33,985 | -5,624 | open | — | 04-01 16:33 |
| no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 136 | $56.7K | 58,620 | 1,000 | +57,620 | open | — | 01-22 19:22 |
| will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting | 27 | $56.3K | 27,000 | 30,000 | -3,000 | open | — | 02-12 08:58 |
| us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153 | 37 | $54.0K | 30,670 | 30,670 | +0 | open | — | 07-16 07:42 |
| bank of england increases interest rates after march 2026 meeting 393 | 127 | $52.0K | 46,337 | 5,911 | +40,426 | open | — | 03-19 08:06 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | 84 | $51.3K | 22,804 | 29,397 | -6,593 | open | — | 05-06 15:46 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | 66 | $48.1K | 23,281 | 25,054 | -1,773 | open | — | 03-31 15:08 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 159 | $47.9K | 45,595 | 2,571 | +43,025 | open | — | 04-27 20:29 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 158 | $46.7K | 23,357 | 24,060 | -703 | No | +$209 | 04-27 02:09 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 119 | $46.7K | 37,532 | 11,615 | +25,917 | open | — | 04-30 20:32 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 96 | $46.0K | 21,800 | 25,177 | -3,377 | open | — | 03-21 16:48 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7 | 86 | $44.6K | 28,683 | 16,000 | +12,683 | open | — | 03-09 10:37 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? | 123 | $43.2K | 23,158 | 21,306 | +1,852 | open | — | 03-06 16:03 |
| will the ecb announce an increase at the february 2026 meeting | 447 | $42.4K | 32,561 | 9,998 | +22,563 | open | — | 02-04 02:09 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 171 | $40.6K | 32,501 | 10,021 | +22,480 | Yes | +$1,230 | 04-27 12:28 |
| will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting | 268 | $38.9K | 29,083 | 10,013 | +19,070 | open | — | 03-18 21:28 |
| will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31 | 38 | $38.6K | 33,688 | 5,138 | +28,550 | open | — | 01-31 22:33 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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