Realized P&L
+$2.73K
Unrealized P&L
+$483
Hit rate
91.1%
Resolved
19
Trades
16,182
lifetime
Volume
$4.90M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$303
Open exposure
$135.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-29 18:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Other
60%
80%
+$1,668
Politics
30%
67%
+$1,063
Tech
7%
—
—
Sports
1%
—
—
Pop-Culture
1%
—
—
Crypto
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk
• peak 230 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +18,500 | $16,170 | 86¢ | $15.9K | $-260 | 06-29 18:54 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | No | -13,444 | $-13,328 | 100¢ | $-13431 | $-102 | 06-18 04:05 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | +9,791 | $9,712 | 100¢ | $9.8K | +$60 | 06-26 19:17 | |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? | No | +6,495 | $6,468 | 100¢ | $6.5K | +$14 | 06-29 17:34 | |
| Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | No | +6,448 | $6,376 | 98¢ | $6.3K | $-31 | 06-27 16:31 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +6,000 | $5,976 | 100¢ | $6.0K | +$15 | 06-25 13:37 | |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | +5,994 | $5,924 | 100¢ | $6.0K | +$64 | 06-18 09:12 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | +5,755 | $5,669 | 100¢ | $5.7K | +$77 | 06-25 22:24 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | +4,986 | $4,326 | 94¢ | $4.7K | +$361 | 06-24 15:08 | |
| Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | No | +4,304 | $4,145 | 95¢ | $4.1K | $-76 | 06-13 20:06 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | +4,008 | $4,014 | 100¢ | $4.0K | $-10 | 06-24 18:04 | |
| Anthropic CEO arrested? | No | +3,905 | $3,895 | 100¢ | $3.9K | $-1 | 06-29 15:09 | |
| Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? | No | +3,836 | $3,818 | 100¢ | $3.8K | +$14 | 06-23 14:23 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | Yes | -3,955 | $-3,183 | 90¢ | $-3579 | $-396 | 06-12 14:00 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | +3,564 | $3,500 | 100¢ | $3.6K | +$60 | 06-25 11:46 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | +3,500 | $3,384 | 100¢ | $3.5K | +$112 | 06-25 11:52 | |
| Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? | No | +3,220 | $2,895 | 94¢ | $3.0K | +$148 | 06-28 17:01 | |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | +3,031 | $3,026 | 100¢ | $3.0K | $-1 | 06-23 09:36 | |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | +3,166 | $2,808 | 92¢ | $2.9K | +$121 | 06-25 03:48 | |
| Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | No | +2,833 | $2,798 | 100¢ | $2.8K | +$23 | 06-27 02:58 | |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? | No | +2,834 | $2,762 | 99¢ | $2.8K | +$34 | 06-28 19:01 | |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | No | +3,022 | $2,659 | 91¢ | $2.8K | +$91 | 06-20 14:52 | |
| Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? | No | +2,707 | $2,657 | 100¢ | $2.7K | +$47 | 06-02 06:03 | |
| Will Amazon acquire TikTok? | No | +2,689 | $2,677 | 100¢ | $2.7K | +$8 | 06-24 16:24 | |
| Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | +2,324 | $2,316 | 100¢ | $2.3K | +$1 | 06-29 15:47 | |
| Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? | No | +2,200 | $2,164 | 97¢ | $2.1K | $-25 | 06-29 15:50 | |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? | No | +2,043 | $2,036 | 100¢ | $2.0K | +$3 | 06-26 18:08 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | -2,237 | $-2,135 | 90¢ | $-2024 | +$111 | 06-28 05:47 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | +2,000 | $1,938 | 100¢ | $2.0K | +$52 | 06-27 14:37 | |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | -1,996 | $-1,856 | 94¢ | $-1886 | $-30 | 06-23 01:02 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 469 | $307.9K | 147,662 | 166,154 | -18,492 | open | — | 04-13 14:37 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 161 | $191.8K | 126,910 | 70,555 | +56,356 | open | — | 03-18 17:50 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 258 | $144.6K | 78,653 | 71,545 | +7,108 | open | — | 04-28 07:24 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 90 | $140.8K | 100,025 | 43,476 | +56,549 | open | — | 03-04 18:21 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | 307 | $133.9K | 72,595 | 63,179 | +9,416 | open | — | 04-30 21:18 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 281 | $122.4K | 61,964 | 62,882 | -917 | open | — | 03-27 16:25 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 87 | $100.4K | 58,286 | 43,278 | +15,007 | open | — | 04-30 07:10 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15 | 46 | $90.5K | 44,397 | 46,518 | -2,121 | open | — | 03-16 14:26 |
| bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting | 484 | $86.6K | 45,441 | 41,555 | +3,886 | open | — | 03-18 19:20 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | 276 | $85.4K | 48,376 | 37,591 | +10,785 | open | — | 03-08 21:08 |
| will gta 6 cost 100 | 156 | $79.4K | 67,570 | 12,339 | +55,231 | open | — | 03-01 01:14 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | 421 | $75.7K | 36,150 | 40,686 | -4,535 | open | — | 05-24 12:56 |
| will microstrategy be delisted from the msci index by march 31 | 101 | $68.9K | 52,510 | 18,329 | +34,181 | open | — | 04-01 00:47 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 111 | $59.5K | 28,360 | 33,985 | -5,624 | open | — | 04-01 16:33 |
| no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 136 | $56.7K | 58,620 | 1,000 | +57,620 | open | — | 01-22 19:22 |
| will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting | 27 | $56.3K | 27,000 | 30,000 | -3,000 | open | — | 02-12 08:58 |
| bank of england increases interest rates after march 2026 meeting 393 | 127 | $52.0K | 46,337 | 5,911 | +40,426 | open | — | 03-19 08:06 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | 84 | $51.3K | 22,804 | 29,397 | -6,593 | open | — | 05-06 15:46 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | 66 | $48.1K | 23,281 | 25,054 | -1,773 | open | — | 03-31 15:08 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 159 | $47.9K | 45,595 | 2,571 | +43,025 | open | — | 04-27 20:29 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 158 | $46.7K | 23,357 | 24,060 | -703 | No | +$209 | 04-27 02:09 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 119 | $46.7K | 37,532 | 11,615 | +25,917 | open | — | 04-30 20:32 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 96 | $46.0K | 21,800 | 25,177 | -3,377 | open | — | 03-21 16:48 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7 | 86 | $44.6K | 28,683 | 16,000 | +12,683 | open | — | 03-09 10:37 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? | 123 | $43.2K | 23,158 | 21,306 | +1,852 | open | — | 03-06 16:03 |
| will the ecb announce an increase at the february 2026 meeting | 447 | $42.4K | 32,561 | 9,998 | +22,563 | open | — | 02-04 02:09 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 171 | $40.6K | 32,501 | 10,021 | +22,480 | Yes | +$1,230 | 04-27 12:28 |
| will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting | 268 | $38.9K | 29,083 | 10,013 | +19,070 | open | — | 03-18 21:28 |
| will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31 | 38 | $38.6K | 33,688 | 5,138 | +28,550 | open | — | 01-31 22:33 |
| will the ecb announce an increase at the march 2026 meeting | 10 | $37.3K | 37,381 | 0 | +37,381 | open | — | 03-19 12:52 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||