Realized P&L
+$69.6K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.97K
Hit rate
93.3%
Resolved
1,104
Trades
29,401
lifetime
Volume
$9.79M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$333
Open exposure
$217.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 23:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 209 days
Categories
Other
64% 89% +$48,700
Politics
26% 76% +$11,707
Tech
7% 80% +$6,880
Sports
1% 73% +$1,759
Pop-Culture
1% 75% +$647
Crypto
0% 20% -$117
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 165 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US recession by end of 2026? No +21,567 $19,637 94¢ $20.2K +$528 10-28 23:22
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +19,926 $18,945 93¢ $18.5K -$483 10-24 15:15
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +16,513 $15,441 96¢ $15.8K +$329 10-22 09:23
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +16,303 $15,092 92¢ $15.1K -$12 10-16 12:36
Trump out as President before 2027? No +15,000 $13,549 96¢ $14.4K +$844 10-16 12:37
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +11,111 $11,069 100¢ $11.1K +$31 10-28 20:26
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No +10,684 $9,527 97¢ $10.4K +$885 10-27 01:35
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +10,000 $8,682 94¢ $9.4K +$718 10-11 23:10
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +8,901 $8,532 97¢ $8.6K +$106 10-20 21:05
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +10,001 $7,932 78¢ $7.8K -$181 10-19 09:25
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? No +6,983 $6,655 100¢ $7.0K +$317 10-28 20:12
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -6,600 -$7,510 98¢ $-6471 +$1,039 10-22 12:10
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? No +6,654 $5,979 94¢ $6.3K +$276 10-25 02:06
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +6,233 $5,679 96¢ $6.0K +$324 10-19 23:45
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +6,002 $5,684 97¢ $5.8K +$153 09-19 23:20
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No +5,513 $5,414 98¢ $5.4K -$12 10-25 21:25
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +5,000 $4,980 100¢ $5.0K +$8 10-18 13:32
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +5,000 $4,969 100¢ $5.0K +$8 10-18 13:31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +5,000 $4,858 98¢ $4.9K +$17 10-18 13:31
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +4,575 $4,029 93¢ $4.2K +$217 10-19 20:27
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? No +3,500 $3,487 100¢ $3.5K -$3 10-13 17:59
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? No +3,488 $3,323 96¢ $3.4K +$34 10-12 18:57
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? No +3,437 $2,959 96¢ $3.3K +$346 09-29 06:31
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No +3,264 $3,072 97¢ $3.2K +$83 10-09 18:20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? No +3,000 $2,957 100¢ $3.0K +$32 10-19 02:35
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? No +3,006 $2,805 98¢ $3.0K +$154 09-23 01:51
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? No +3,000 $2,964 97¢ $2.9K -$60 09-23 18:01
GTA VI released by November 30? Yes +3,000 $2,790 95¢ $2.9K +$67 09-27 15:22
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +3,000 $2,680 92¢ $2.8K +$95 09-19 08:48
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +3,008 $2,609 90¢ $2.7K +$113 08-08 02:49