Impassioned-Watch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$42.5K

Hit rate

77.9%

Resolved

Trades

8,675

lifetime

Volume

$9.35M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.08K

Open exposure

$398.8K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-14 23:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

54% 100% +$3,417

Politics

24% 50% $-33,233

Crypto

15% — —

Sports

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 543 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+290,404	$238,203	74¢	$213.4K	$-24,755	06-11 03:55
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	+73,736	$69,660	99¢	$72.8K	+$3,154	06-13 10:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	+30,099	$26,786	97¢	$29.1K	+$2,335	06-01 17:51
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+32,250	$25,886	86¢	$27.9K	+$2,011	06-05 02:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+73,935	$44,011	37¢	$27.4K	$-16,655	06-08 18:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	+17,403	$16,594	99¢	$17.3K	+$696	06-14 21:27
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	Yes	+10,889	$9,962	94¢	$10.3K	+$300	06-14 14:48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+773	$456	72¢	$557	+$100	06-01 03:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	+3,572	$9,767	3¢	$100	$-9,667	06-14 23:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1,274	$953.9K	545,745	453,494	+92,251	open	—	05-31 10:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	312	$606.5K	322,442	310,329	+12,113	open	—	05-16 14:44
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	227	$556.6K	460,774	96,683	+364,091	open	—	01-03 00:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	550	$521.0K	271,564	272,250	-686	open	—	04-28 16:53
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	159	$331.8K	255,000	78,694	+176,307	open	—	02-09 02:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	109	$299.4K	300,000	0	+300,000	open	—	03-03 17:30
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	325	$271.8K	150,455	126,833	+23,623	open	—	04-01 03:35
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	398	$270.8K	273,881	0	+273,881	open	—	03-30 13:48
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	167	$269.0K	165,860	111,565	+54,295	open	—	06-13 10:08
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	127	$266.9K	188,329	85,674	+102,655	open	—	06-14 02:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	193	$250.5K	304,047	0	+304,047	open	—	06-11 03:55
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	111	$241.2K	142,671	112,648	+30,023	open	—	05-28 19:27
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	32	$238.7K	248,118	0	+248,118	open	—	03-17 17:45
Netanyahu out by April 30?	167	$231.0K	117,413	117,409	+4	open	—	04-22 16:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$228.6K	230,416	0	+230,416	open	—	06-01 02:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	118	$208.6K	105,846	105,840	+6	open	—	04-23 11:02
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	130	$155.2K	159,660	0	+159,660	open	—	01-29 18:45
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	88	$148.9K	76,412	74,338	+2,074	open	—	04-29 02:55
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	56	$137.1K	137,413	0	+137,413	open	—	02-26 17:31
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	105	$134.7K	69,978	66,711	+3,268	open	—	06-14 21:27
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	95	$132.8K	138,300	10,000	+128,300	open	—	04-22 00:53
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	91	$120.4K	125,375	0	+125,375	open	—	01-28 17:20
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	144	$117.1K	119,476	0	+119,476	open	—	04-30 06:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	129	$117.1K	60,000	59,998	+2	open	—	05-11 06:54
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	116	$112.3K	70,230	43,224	+27,006	open	—	04-22 19:58
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	107	$101.1K	102,246	0	+102,246	open	—	02-21 00:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	56	$98.8K	50,000	49,990	+10	open	—	04-19 20:06
netanyahu out by march 31 854	43	$74.5K	75,829	0	+75,829	open	—	03-23 02:22
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	29	$68.9K	70,204	0	+70,204	open	—	02-09 02:57
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	10	$68.9K	34,632	34,617	+15	open	—	04-11 09:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 23:31:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,572	7¢	$250	0xeb44e9…
06-14 21:57:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,381	14¢	$333	0x511f72…
06-14 21:57:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,136	14¢	$439	0x5a8975…
06-14 21:57:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x5152ef…
06-14 21:56:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	14¢	$3	0xa3fd0b…
06-14 21:27:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19,897	99¢	$19,738	0xcbe208…
06-14 21:27:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$992	0x78acbd…
06-14 21:21:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0xb265c8…
06-14 21:12:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0xd49b4d…
06-14 20:40:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xd9f3f3…
06-14 20:36:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	6,683	99¢	$6,630	0xccf48e…
06-14 20:23:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x63bdd7…
06-14 20:03:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc6500b…
06-14 19:21:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x31aa32…
06-14 19:19:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2ba488…
06-14 19:10:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1,038	99¢	$1,030	0xe88e9e…
06-14 18:57:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfad968…
06-14 18:27:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x424624…
06-14 18:27:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1,009	99¢	$1,001	0x8ea384…
06-14 18:11:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xd07107…
06-14 17:44:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4e0154…
06-14 17:41:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x8695a4…
06-14 17:36:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x042811…
06-14 17:23:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7f2740…
06-14 17:21:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x8bdc4b…
06-14 17:17:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8c2864…
06-14 17:07:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xeeb937…
06-14 17:07:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd24d09…
06-14 16:54:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc5c204…
06-14 16:20:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd8167e…
06-14 16:18:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	718	99¢	$713	0xeb7f4a…
06-14 16:17:30	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	719	99¢	$714	0x14a963…
06-14 16:17:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	720	99¢	$715	0x774cb0…
06-14 16:17:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	721	99¢	$716	0x73552d…
06-14 16:16:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	722	99¢	$717	0x8d21f1…
06-14 16:16:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	723	99¢	$718	0x1b874f…
06-14 16:16:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	724	99¢	$719	0x91a36e…
06-14 16:16:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	725	99¢	$720	0x2b2a5c…
06-14 16:16:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	727	99¢	$721	0xb10e82…
06-14 16:15:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	728	99¢	$722	0x6f540a…
06-14 16:14:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	733	99¢	$727	0xad089c…
06-14 16:14:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	734	99¢	$728	0xd84398…
06-14 16:13:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	735	99¢	$729	0x8c88fb…
06-14 16:13:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	736	99¢	$730	0xe30f3b…
06-14 16:13:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	737	99¢	$731	0xac07c6…
06-14 16:13:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	738	99¢	$732	0x951dfb…
06-14 16:13:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	739	99¢	$733	0x76603e…
06-14 16:13:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	361	99¢	$358	0x488afe…
06-14 15:26:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	64	64¢	$41	0xfc5a1d…
06-14 15:26:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,936	64¢	$1,239	0x548e1b…
06-14 14:48:21	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	Yes	BUY	968	96¢	$931	0x3eb605…
06-14 02:40:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	8,163	100¢	$8,131	0x1787a3…
06-14 02:37:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x50cc0f…
06-14 02:37:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xfccf16…
06-14 02:34:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,162	100¢	$1,158	0x54b491…
06-14 02:10:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	14,156	100¢	$14,100	0xf035b9…
06-14 01:59:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0xfe1cbb…
06-14 01:49:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	867	100¢	$863	0x88e7f9…
06-14 01:39:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	5,228	100¢	$5,207	0xe9dcb5…
06-14 01:33:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0x35e31d…
06-14 00:55:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaa9974…
06-14 00:48:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	495	100¢	$493	0x896a48…
06-14 00:48:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x23679d…
06-14 00:47:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	2,335	100¢	$2,326	0x42ec6e…
06-14 00:43:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x19c471…
06-14 00:42:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,635	100¢	$1,628	0x84dd02…
06-14 00:25:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	251	100¢	$250	0xb8d056…
06-14 00:16:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	3,750	100¢	$3,735	0xf0f95a…
06-14 00:07:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	346	100¢	$345	0x7d020c…
06-13 23:54:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4ef9a7…
06-13 23:53:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x80a03f…
06-13 23:52:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,490	0x577b8c…
06-13 23:51:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	231	100¢	$230	0xef27d1…
06-13 23:46:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x13bdfe…
06-13 23:45:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	753	100¢	$750	0x356428…
06-13 23:03:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	134	100¢	$133	0xeb6f26…
06-13 22:53:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x524085…
06-13 22:51:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,168	100¢	$1,163	0xc8602e…
06-13 22:39:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	221	100¢	$220	0xf4f808…
06-13 22:36:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	3,400	100¢	$3,386	0xf4e6eb…
06-13 22:32:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x760c79…
06-13 22:30:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,250	100¢	$1,245	0xbcbff5…
06-13 22:01:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0xa97fc0…
06-13 22:01:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	2,781	100¢	$2,770	0x881e64…
06-13 13:59:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	8,946	100¢	$8,928	0xba3eed…
06-13 13:57:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	31,782	100¢	$31,719	0xe30b5c…
06-13 10:08:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	4,625	98¢	$4,523	0x061bfc…
06-12 17:02:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x45f20a…
06-12 16:57:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xcfff2a…
06-12 16:35:55	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	63	98¢	$62	0xada478…
06-12 16:30:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	3,350	99¢	$3,327	0x7a32ca…
06-12 16:25:51	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x93aa2c…
06-12 16:25:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x875941…
06-12 16:25:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe145d0…
06-12 16:25:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x271bb1…
06-12 16:25:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4b18a9…
06-12 16:10:15	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb62005…
06-12 16:03:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x0ec78e…
06-12 16:02:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x8bc478…
06-12 15:51:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x67c02a…